GetWiki
Population decline
ARTICLE SUBJECTS
being →
database →
ethics →
fiction →
history →
internet →
language →
linux →
logic →
method →
news →
policy →
purpose →
religion →
science →
software →
truth →
unix →
wiki →
ARTICLE TYPES
essay →
feed →
help →
system →
wiki →
ARTICLE ORIGINS
critical →
forked →
imported →
original →
Population decline
please note:
- the content below is remote from Wikipedia
- it has been imported raw for GetWiki
{{Short description|Concept in human demographics}}{{use dmy dates |date=April 2024}}{{About|human population decline|radical losses in any particular species|endangered species|losses in fauna|defaunation}}Population decline, also known as depopulation, is a reduction in a human population size. Throughout history, Earth’s total human population has continued to grow; however, current projections suggest that this long-term trend of steady population growth may be coming to an end.From antiquity until the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, the global population grew very slowly, at about 0.04% per year. After about 1800, the growth rate accelerated to a peak of 2.1% annually during the 1962â1968 period, but since then, due to the worldwide collapse of the total fertility rate, it has slowed to 0.9% as of 2023. The global growth rate in absolute numbers accelerated to a peak of 92.8 million in 1990, but has since slowed to 64.7 million in 2021.WEB, 2022, World Population Prospects 2022, Standard Projections, Compact File, Estimates tab, Population Change column,population.un.org/wpp/Download/Standard/MostUsed/, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, Long-term projections indicate that the growth rate of the human population of the planet will continue to slow and that before the end of the 21st century, it will reach zero. Examples of this emerging trend are Japan, whose population is currently (2022â2026) declining at the rate of 0.5% per year, and China, whose population has peaked and is currently (2022 â 2026) declining at the rate of about 0.04%. By 2050, Europe’s population is projected to be declining at the rate of 0.3% per year.Population growth has declined mainly due to the abrupt decline in the global total fertility rate, from 5.3 in 1963 to 2.3 in 2021. The decline in the total fertility rate has occurred in every region of the world and is a result of a process known as demographic transition. To maintain its population, ignoring migration, a country requires a minimum fertility rate of 2.1JOURNAL, Craig, 1994, Replacement level fertility and future population growth,pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/7834459/, Population Trends, 78, 20â22, 7834459, children per woman of childbearing age (the number is slightly greater than 2 because not all children live to adulthood). However, most societies experience a drastic drop in fertility to well below 2 as they grow more wealthy. The tendency of women in wealthier countries to have fewer children is attributed to a variety of reasons, such as lower infant mortality and a reduced need for children as a source of family labor or retirement welfare, both of which reduce the incentive to have many children. Better access to education for young women, which broadens their job prospects, is also often cited.NEWS, 2019-02-02, Thanks to education, global fertility could fall faster than expected, The Economist,www.economist.com/international/2019/02/02/thanks-to-education-global-fertility-could-fall-faster-than-expected, 2021-04-30, 0013-0613, Possible consequences of long-term national population decline can be net positive or negative. If a country can increase its workforce productivity faster than its population is declining, the results, in terms of its economy, the quality of life of its citizens, and the environment, can be net positive. If it cannot increase workforce productivity faster than its population’s decline, the results can be negative.National efforts to confront a declining population to date have been focused on the possible negative economic consequences and have been centered on increasing the size and productivity of the workforce.- the content below is remote from Wikipedia
- it has been imported raw for GetWiki
Causes
A reduction over time in a region’s population can be caused by sudden adverse events such as outbursts of infectious disease, famine, and war or by long-term trends, for example, sub-replacement fertility, persistently low birth rates, high mortality rates, and continued emigration.Short-term population shocks
File:Acuna-Soto EID-v8n4p360 Fig1.png|thumb|Collapse of population in Mexico during the 16th century, attributed to repeated epidemics of smallpox and cocoliztli ]]Historical episodes of short-term human population decline have been common and have been caused by several factors.High mortality rates caused by:- Disease, for example, the Black Death that devastated Europe in the 14th and 17th centuries, the arrival of Old World diseases in the Americas during European colonization, and the Spanish flu pandemic after World War I,
- Famine, for example, the Great Irish Famine of the 19th century, and the Great Chinese Famine caused by the Great Leap Forward which caused tens of millions of deaths,
- War, for example, the Mongol invasion of Europe in the 13th century, which may have reduced the population of Hungary by 20â40%,
- Civil unrest, for example, the forced migration of the population of Syria because of the Syrian Civil War.
- A combination of these. The first half of the 20th century in Imperial Russia and the Soviet Union was marked by a succession of major wars, famines and other disasters which caused large-scale population losses (approximately 60 million excess deaths).BOOK, Jay Winter, Emmanuel Sivan,books.google.com/books?id=ZK2A5x7E8IkC&pg=PA64, War and Remembrance in the Twentieth Century, 2000, Cambridge University Press, 978-0521794367, 64, 20 July 2015,web.archive.org/web/20150904015129/https://books.google.com/books?id=ZK2A5x7E8IkC&pg=PA64, 4 September 2015, live, BOOK, Mark Harrison,books.google.com/books?id=yJcD7_Q_rQ8C&pg=PA167, Accounting for War: Soviet Production, Employment, and the Defence Burden, 1940â1945, 2002, Cambridge University Press, 978-0-521-89424-1, 167,
Long-term historic trends in world population growth
{{Further|Population growth|Population dynamics}}{{See also|Estimates of historical world population}}In spite of these short-term population shocks, world population has continued to grow. From around 10,000 BC to the beginning of the Early modern period (generally 1500 â 1800), world population grew very slowly, around 0.04% per year. During that period, population growth was governed by conditions now labeled the “Malthusian Trap”.After 1700, driven by increases in human productivity due to the Industrial Revolution, particularly the increase in agricultural productivity,JOURNAL, Peterson, E. Wesley, October 11, 2017, The Role of Population in Economic Growth, SAGE Open, 7, 4, 10.1177/2158244017736094, 158150556, free, population growth accelerated to around 0.6% per year, a rate that was over ten times the rate of population growth of the previous 12,000 years. This rapid increase in global population caused Malthus and others to raise the first concerns about overpopulation.After World War I birth rates in the United States and many European countries fell below replacement level. This prompted concern about population decline.JOURNAL, Coleman, David, Jan 25, 2011, Who’s afraid of population decline? A critical examination of its consequences, Population and Development Review, 37, Suppl 1, 217â48, 10.1.1.700.5979, 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2011.00385.x, 21280372, 2979501, The recovery of the birth rate in most western countries around 1940 that produced the “baby boom”, with annual growth rates in the 1.0 â 1.5% range, and which peaked during the period 1962 -1968 at 2.1% per year,WEB, 2022, World Population Prospects 2022, Standard Projections, Compact File, Estimates tab, Population Growth Rate(percentage) column,population.un.org/wpp/Download/Standard/MostUsed/, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, temporarily dispelled prior concerns about population decline, and the world was once again fearful of overpopulation.File:Total Fertility Rate Map by Country.svg|thumb|right|250px|Map of countries by fertility rate (2023), according to the Population Reference BureauPopulation Reference BureauBut after 1968 the global population growth rate started a long decline, and in the period 2022â2027 the UN estimates it to be about 0.9%, less than half of its peak during the period 1962 - 1968. Although still growing, the UN predicts that global population will level out around 2086, and some sources predict the start of a decline before then.WEB, Vollset, Emil, Goren, Emily, Yuan, Chun-Wei, July 14, 2020, Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study,www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30677-2/fulltext, The Lancet, The principal cause of this phenomenon is the abrupt decline in the global total fertility rate, from 5.3 in 1963 to 2.3 in 2021, as the world continues to move through the stages of the Demographic Transition .WEB, 2022, World Population Prospects 2022, Standard Projections, Compact File, Estimates tab, Total Fertility Rate column,population.un.org/wpp/Download/Standard/MostUsed/, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, The decline in the total fertility rate has occurred in every region of the world and has brought renewed concern from some for population decline.The era of rapid global population increase, and concomitant concern about a population explosion, has been short compared with the span of human history. It began roughly at the beginning of the industrial revolution and appears to be now drawing to a close.Possible consequences
{{Further|Dependency ratio|Pensions crisis}}Predictions of the net economic (and other) effects from a slow and continuous population decline (e.g. due to low fertility rates) are mainly theoretical since such a phenomenon is a relatively new and unprecedented one. The results of many of these studies show that the estimated impact of population growth on economic growth is generally small and can be positive, negative, or nonexistent. A recent meta-study found no relationship between population growth and economic growth.JOURNAL, Derek D. Headey, Andrew Hodge, 2009, The Effect of Population Growth on Economic Growth: A Meta-Regression Analysis of the Macroeconomic Literature, Population and Development Review, 35, 2, 221â248, 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2009.00274.x, 25487661,Possible positive effects
The effects of a declining population can be positive. The single best gauge of economic success is the growth of GDP per person, not total GDP.NEWS, 13 March 2008, Grossly distorted picture,www.economist.com/finance/PrinterFriendly.cfm?story_id=10852462, 16 September 2017, The Economist, GDP per person (also known as GDP per capita or per capita GDP) is a rough proxy for average living standards.JOURNAL, Roser, Max, 2019, Economic Growth,ourworldindata.org/economic-growth, Our World in Data, A country can both increase its average living standard and grow its total GDP even though its population growth is low or even negative. The economies of both Japan and Germany went into recovery around the time their populations began to decline (2003â2006). In other words, both the total and per capita GDP in both countries grew more rapidly after 2005 than before. Russia’s economy also began to grow rapidly from 1999 onward, even though its population had been shrinking since 1992â93.Nicholas Eberstadt. 2005. “Russia, the Sick Man of Europe”. Public Interest, Winter 2005 WEB, Russia, the sick man of Europe | Public Interest | Find Articles at BNET,findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0377/is_158/ai_n8680968, dead,findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0377/is_158/ai_n8680968," title="web.archive.org/web/20080807171449findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0377/is_158/ai_n8680968,">web.archive.org/web/20080807171449findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0377/is_158/ai_n8680968, 2008-08-07, 2008-09-26, Many Eastern European countries have been experiencing similar effects to Russia. Such renewed growth calls into question the conventional wisdom that economic growth requires population growth, or that economic growth is impossible during a population decline.More recently (2009â2017) Japan has experienced a higher growth of GDP per capita than the United States, even though its population declined over that period. In the United States, the relationship between population growth and growth of GDP per capita has been found to be empirically insignificant.NEWS, Florida, Richard, The Great Growth Disconnect: Population Growth Does Not Equal Economic Growth,www.citylab.com/life/2013/09/great-growth-disconnect-population-growth-does-not-equal-economic-growth/5860/, Bloomberg.com, 30 September 2013, This evidence shows that individual prosperity can grow during periods of population decline.Attempting to better understand the economic impact of these pluses and minuses, Lee et al. analyzed data from 40 countries. They found that typically fertility well above replacement and population growth would be most beneficial for government budgets. Fertility near replacement and population stability, however, would be most beneficial for standards of living when the analysis includes the effects of age structure on families as well as governments. Fertility moderately below replacement and population decline would maximize per capita consumption when the cost of providing capital for a growing labor force is taken into account.JOURNAL, Lee, Ronald, Mason, Andrew, members of the NTA Network, 10 October 2014, Is Low Fertility Really a Problem? Population Aging, Dependency, and Consumption,ntaccounts.org/web/nta/show/Science, Science, 346, 6206, 229â234, 2014Sci...346..229L, 10.1126/science.1250542, 4545628, 25301626, A focus on productivity growth that leads to an increase in both per capita GDP and total GDP can bring other benefits to:- the workforce through higher wages, benefits and better working conditions
- customers through lower prices
- owners and shareholders through higher profits
- the environment through more money for investment in more stringent environmental protection
- governments through higher tax proceeds to fund government activities
Possible negative effects
The effects of a declining population can also be negative. As a country’s population declines, GDP growth may grow even more slowly or may even decline. If the decline in total population is not matched by an equal or greater increase in productivity (GDP/capita), and if that condition continues from one calendar quarter to the next, it follows that a country would experience a decline in GDP, known as an economic recession. If these conditions become permanent, the country could find itself in a permanent recession.Other possible negative impacts of a declining population are:- A rise in the dependency ratio which would increase the economic pressure on the workforce
- A loss of culture and the diminishment of trust among citizensWEB, Robert, Putnam, 2000, Bowling Alone,bowlingalone.com/,
- A crisis in end-of-life care for the elderly because there are insufficient caregivers for themWEB, Kim, Tammy, Jan 25, 2011, Americans Will Struggle to Grow Old at Home,www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-02-09/americans-will-struggle-to-grow-old-at-home, Bloomberg Business Week,
- Difficulties in funding entitlement programs because there are fewer workers relative to retireesWEB, Kotkin, Joel, Feb 1, 2017, Death Spiral Demographics: The Countries Shrinking The Fastest,www.forbes.com/sites/joelkotkin/2017/02/01/death-spiral-demographics-the-countries-shrinking-the-fastest/6ae9b591b83c, Forbes,
- A decline in military strength
- A decline in innovation since change comes from the young
- A strain on mental health caused by permanent recessionJOURNAL, Zivkin, K, Sep 14, 2010, Economic Downturns and Population Mental Health: Research Findings, Gaps, Challenges and Priorities, Psychological Medicine, 41, 7, 1343â8, 10.1017/S003329171000173X, 3846090, 20836907,
- Deflation caused by the aging populationWEB, Anderson, Derek, Aug 4, 2014, Is Japan’s Population Aging Deflationary?,www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2014/wp14139.pdf, International Monetary Fund,
Contemporary decline by country
{{Original research section|reason=It is unclear how the threshold that constitutes a low birth rate, high death rate, etc. has been determined. It is also unclear what about footnotes 3, 4, 5, and 6 makes them significant enough for inclusion compared to other similar events.|date=August 2022}}The table below shows the countries that have been affected by population decline between 2010 and 2020. The term “population” used here is based on the de facto definition of population, which counts all residents regardless of legal status or citizenship, except for refugees not permanently settled in the country of asylum, who are generally considered part of the population of the country of origin. This means that population growth in this table includes net changes from immigration and emigration. For a table of natural population changes, see the list of countries by natural increase.{| class=“wikitable sortable“|+Population decline by country and factors!rowspan=2|Countryor region!rowspan=2 data-sort-type=“number“|Population estimate(1 July 2020)!colspan=2|Average annual rate ofpopulation change (%)!rowspan=2|Low birth rate!rowspan=2|High death rate!rowspan=2|Emigration!rowspan=2|High rateof abortionAndorra}} Andorra | demographics of Andorra>77,543| â0.2| +1.5| Yes|| Yes| |
Albania}} Albania | demographics of Albania>2,877,797| â0.2| â0.1| Yes|| Yes| |
Bosnia-Herzegovina}} Bosnia and Herzegovina|3,276,845| â1.6| â1.2| Yes|| Yes| |
Bulgaria}} Bulgaria | demographics of Bulgaria>6,520,314| â0.8| â0.9| Yes| Yes| Yes| Yes |
Croatia}} Croatia | demographics of Croatia>4,105,267| â0.5| â0.8| Yes| Yes| Yes| |
Estonia}} Estonia|1,326,804| â0.2| +0.2| Yes| Yes| Yes| |
Georgia}} Georgia | Demographics of Georgia (country)>3,989,167| â0.3| â0.0| Yes| Yes| Yes| |
Greece}} Greece | demographics of Greece>10,423,054| â0.4| â0.6| Yes|| Yes| |
Hungary}} Hungary | demographics of Hungary>9,660,351| 0.3| â0.2| Yes| Yes| Yes| |
Italy}} Italy | demographics of Italy>60,461,826| +0.1| â0.3| Yes||| |
Japan}} Japan | Demography of Japan>126,476,461| â0.1| â0.3| Yes||| |
Latvia}} Latvia | Demographics of Latvia>1,864,884| â1.1| â1.0| Yes| Yes| Yes| |
Lithuania}} Lithuania | Demographics of Lithuania>2,678,864| â1.2| â1.0| Yes| Yes| Yes| |
Moldova}} Moldova | demographics of Moldova>4,033,963| â2.2| â1.2| Yes| Yes| Yes| |
Poland}} Poland | demographics of Poland>37,846,611| â0.0| â0.1| Yes|| Yes| |
Portugal}} Portugal | demographics of Portugal>10,196,709| â0.4| â0.1| Yes|| Yes| |
Puerto Rico}} Puerto Rico | Demographics of Puerto Rico#Vital statistics>3,285,874| â1.4| â1.1| Yes|| Yes| |
Romania}} Romania | demographics of Romania>19,237,691| â0.5| â0.5| Yes|| Yes| Yes |
Serbia}} Serbia|6,740,936| â0.4| â0.4| Yes| Yes| Yes| |
Spain}} Spain|46,745,896| â0.0| +0.3| Yes||| |
Syria}} Syria|18,207,894| â2.6| +1.3|| Yes| Yes| |
Ukraine}} Ukraine|41,390,728| â0.3| â0.5| Yes| Yes| Yes| Yes |
Venezuela}} Venezuela|28,609,886| +1.2| â1.1|| Yes| Yes| |
East Asia
China
China’s population peaked at 1.41 billion in 2021 and began declining in 2022,.WEB, Gorvett, Zaria, January 18, 2023, What will China’s population drop mean for the world?,www.bbc.com/future/article/20230118-is-chinas-population-decline-surprising, BBC Future, China recorded more deaths than births for the first time in 2022, and this trend continued in 2023 when deaths overnumbered births by a margin of more than 2 million.WEB, Gorvett, Zaria, January 17, 2024, China population decline accelerates as birthrate hits record low,www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/17/china-population-decline-accelerates-as-birthrate-hits-record-low#, The Guardian, The UN’s Population Division, assuming that China’s total fertility rate will rise from 1.2 in 2022 to 1.5 by 2100, projects its population to be 771 million by 2100, a decline of about 46%.,WEB, 2022, World Population Prospects 2022, Standard Projections, Compact File, Variant tab, Total Fertility Rate column,population.un.org/wpp/Download/Standard/MostUsed/, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division.,Japan
File:Abandoned House Collapsed from snow Hokkaido.jpg|thumb|An abandoned house in (YÅ«bari District, Hokkaido|Yubari district]], Hokkaido: an area which has suffered sharp population decline)Though Japan’s natural increase turned negative as early as 2005,NEWS, Japan’s Population Fell This Year, Sooner Than Expected, The New York Times, 24 December 2005, the 2010 census result figure was slightly higher, at just above 128 million,WEB,www.e-stat.go.jp/SG1/estat/Csvdl.do?sinfid=000008640423, æ¿åºçµ±è¨ã®ç·åçªå£ GL08020104, www.e-stat.go.jp, than the 2005 census. Factors implicated in the puzzling figures were more Japanese returnees than expected as well as changes in the methodology of data collection. However, the official count put the population as of October 1, 2015, at 127.1 million, down by 947,000 or 0.7% from the previous quinquennial census.NEWS,www.wsj.com/articles/the-shrinking-of-japan-1456482692, Japan’s Net Loss: 947,000 People, Jun, Hongo, Wall Street Journal, 26 February 2016, 16 September 2017, www.wsj.com, WEB,www.stat.go.jp/english/data/jinsui/tsuki/index.htm, Statistics Bureau Home Page/Population Estimates Monthly Report, www.stat.go.jp, 16 September 2017, The gender ratio is increasingly skewed; some 106 women per 100 men live in Japan. In 2019, Japan’s population fell by a record-breaking 276,000; if immigration is excluded from the figures, the drop would have been 487,000.NEWS, Japan’s shrinking population suffers new record decline, The Times, May 8, 2020,www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/world/japans-population-on-course-to-fall-by-a-third-in-50-years-vrp7t0kks, Parry, Richard Lloyd, Given the population boom of the 1950s and 1960s, the total population is still 52% above 1950 levels.The UN’s Population Division, assuming that Japan’s total fertility rate will rise from 1.3 in 2022 to 1.5 by 2100, projects its population to fall to 74 million by 2100, a decline of about 40%.,South Korea
{{see also|Demographics of South Korea}}South Korea’s total fertility rate has been consistently lower than that of Japan, breaking below 1 in 2018, and fell to 0.778 in 2022. As a result, its population fell in 2020 for the first time in the country’s history from 51.8 million in 2020 to 51.6 in 2022.WEB, February 24, 2021, South Korea’s fertility rate falls to lowest in the world,www.reuters.com/article/us-southkorea-fertility-rate-idUSKBN2AO0UH, Reuters, The UN’s Population Division, assuming that South Korea’s total fertility rate will rise from 0.9 in 2022 to 1.4 by 2100, projects its population to fall to 24 million by 2100, a decline of about 54%.,Taiwan
{{see also|Demographics of Taiwan}}Taiwan recorded more deaths than births for the first time in 2020, despite recording virtually no COVID-19 deaths,NEWS, Taiwan saw 12,000 more deaths than births in first quarter of 2021,www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4173614, 29 July 2021, Taiwan News, 10 April 2021, thus starting an era of demographic decline for the foreseeable future. Taiwan’s population fell from 23.6 million in 2020 to 23.4 in 2023, while the total fertility rate decreased from 1.05 in 2020 to 0.85 in 2023.The UN’s Population Division, assuming that Taiwan’s total fertility rate will rise from 1.1 in 2022 to 1.5 by 2100, projects its population to fall to 15 million by 2100, a decline of about 38%.,Thailand
{{see also|Demographics of Thailand}}Thailand’s total fertility rate has been consistently lower than the replacement rate of 2.1 since the beginning of the 1990s and reached a new low in 2022, at 1. Thailand ‘s population decline started in 2020 and Thailand for the first time recorded more deaths than births in 2021. This negative natural population change amplified in 2022 and 2023 and, in the absence of substantial immigration, this trend will continue in the coming years due to the very low fertility rate.Eastern Europe and former Soviet republics
File:Natural increase, 2017 CIA World Factbook.svg|thumb|300px|The (Rate of natural increase|natural population change]], from the CIA World Factbook, 2017:{| border=“0” cellspacing=“0” cellpadding=“0” style="width:100%; background:none;”{{Legend|#A30000|⥠30}}{{Legend|#C95C08|25 â 29.99}}{{Legend|#E8E409|20 â 24.99}}{{Legend|#8AC900|15 â 19.99}} | {{Legend|#1A9104|10 â 14.99}}{{Legend|#1DC484|5 â 9.99}}{{Legend|#1DE0D7|0 â 4.99}}{{Legend|#1D92E0|â5 â â0.01}} | {{Legend|#2A4CB5| | < â5}}{{Legend|#C0C0C0|Data unavailable}}
Armenia
Armenia’s population peaked at 3,604,000 in 1991WEB,www.armstat.am/en/, Armenian Statistical Service of Republic of Armenia, www.armstat.am, 16 September 2017, and declined to 3,010,600 in the January 2015 state statistical estimate.WEB,www.citypopulation.de/Armenia.html, Armenia: Regions, Districts, Cities, Towns, Villages â Population Statistics in Maps and Charts, www.citypopulation.de, 16 September 2017, This represents a 19.7% decrease in the total population since the peak census figure.Belarus
Belarus’s population peaked at 10,151,806 in the 1989 Census and declined to 9,480,868 as of 2015 as estimated by the state statistical service.WEB,news.belta.by/en/news/society?id=688366,news.belta.by/en/news/society?id=688366," title="archive.today/20121203093137news.belta.by/en/news/society?id=688366,">archive.today/20121203093137news.belta.by/en/news/society?id=688366, dead, 2012-12-03, Belarus population at 9,457,500 as of 1 July 2012 - Society / News / â¦, This represents a 7.1% decline since the peak census figure.Estonia
In the last Soviet census of 1989, it had a population of 1,565,662, which was close to its peak population.WEB,www.citypopulation.de/Estonia.html, Estonia: Regions, Municipalities, Cities and Towns â Population Statistics in Maps and Charts, www.citypopulation.de, 16 September 2017, The state statistics reported an estimate of 1,314,370 for 2016. This represents a 19.2% decline since the peak census figure.Georgia
In the last Soviet census of 1989, it had a population of 5,400,841, which was close to its peak population.WEB,www.citypopulation.de/Georgia.html, Georgia: Regions, Major Cities & Urban Settlements â Population Statistics in Maps and Charts, www.citypopulation.de, 16 September 2017, The state statistics reported an estimate of 4,010,000 for the 2014 Census, which includes estimated numbers for quasi-independent Abkhazia and South Ossetia. This represents a 25.7% decline since the peak census figure, but nevertheless somewhat higher than the 1950 population.Latvia
When Latvia split from the Soviet Union, it had a population of 2,666,567, which was very close to its peak population.WEB,www.citypopulation.de/Latvia.html, Latvia: Regions, Municipalities, Cities and Towns â Population Statistics in Maps and Charts, www.citypopulation.de, 16 September 2017, The latest census recorded a population of 2,067,887 in 2011, while the state statistics reported an estimate of 1,986,086 for 2015. This represents a 25.5% decline since the peak census figure, with only one of two nations worldwide falling below 1950 levels. The decline is caused by both a negative natural population growth (more deaths than births) and a negative net migration rate.Lithuania
When Lithuania split from the Soviet Union, it had a population of 3.7 million, which was close to its peak population.WEB,www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D9N8JV6G0.htm, Lithuanian census shows steep fall in population - BusinessWeek, 2011-05-24, dead,www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D9N8JV6G0.htm," title="web.archive.org/web/20110525021143www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D9N8JV6G0.htm,">web.archive.org/web/20110525021143www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D9N8JV6G0.htm, 2011-05-25, The latest census recorded a population of 3.05 million in 2011, down from 3.4 million in 2001, further falling to 2,988,000 on September 1, 2012.WEB,www.baltictimes.com/news/articles/31907/, Lithuania’s population less than 3 million, This represents a 23.8% decline since the peak census figure, and some 13.7% since 2001.Ukraine
File:MALTESER Ukrainehilfe (51926526000).jpg|thumb|upright|Ukrainian refugees entering Romania, 5 March 2022]]Ukraine census in 1989 resulted in 51,452,034 people.WEB,demoscope.ru/weekly/ssp/sng_nac_79.php, ÐемоÑкоп Weekly - ÐÑиложение. СпÑавоÑник ÑÑаÑиÑÑиÑеÑÐºÐ¸Ñ Ð¿Ð¾ÐºÐ°Ð·Ð°Ñелей, 2009-01-02, dead,demoscope.ru/weekly/ssp/sng_nac_79.php," title="web.archive.org/web/20100324145212demoscope.ru/weekly/ssp/sng_nac_79.php,">web.archive.org/web/20100324145212demoscope.ru/weekly/ssp/sng_nac_79.php, 2010-03-24, Ukraine’s own estimates show a peak of 52,244,000 people in 1993;WEB,www.ukrstat.gov.ua/operativ/operativ2007/ds/nas_rik/nas_e/nas_rik_e.html, Population, 2012-08-05, dead,www.ukrstat.gov.ua/operativ/operativ2007/ds/nas_rik/nas_e/nas_rik_e.html," title="archive.today/20120805214701www.ukrstat.gov.ua/operativ/operativ2007/ds/nas_rik/nas_e/nas_rik_e.html,">archive.today/20120805214701www.ukrstat.gov.ua/operativ/operativ2007/ds/nas_rik/nas_e/nas_rik_e.html, 2012-08-05, however, this number has plummeted to 45,439,822 as of December 1, 2013.weblink{{dead link|date=October 2016}} Statistical Table Dec 2013 Having lost Crimean territory to Russia in early 2014 and subsequently experiencing war, the population dropped to 42,981,850 as of August 2014.WEB,ukrstat.org/en/operativ/operativ2014/ds/kn/kn_e/kn0814_e.html, Population (by estimate) as of August 1, 2014. Average annual populations JanuaryâJuly 2014, ukrstat.org, 16 September 2017, This represents a 19.7% decrease in total population since the peak figure, but 16.8% above the 1950 population even without Crimea.WEB,www.geohive.com/, registered through Argeweb, www.geohive.com, Its absolute total decline (9,263,000) since its peak population is the highest of all nations; this includes loss of territory and heavy net emigration. Eastern Ukraine may yet lose many Russian-speaking citizens due to the new Russian citizenship law.WEB,rbth.com/international/2014/07/09/un_confirms_flight_of_500000_ukrainian_refugees_to_russia_38063.html, UN confirms flight of Ukrainian refugees to Russia, Marina, Obrazkova, 9 July 2014, 16 September 2017, An editorial projects significant gender and age imbalance in the population in Ukraine as a substantial problem if most refugees, as in other cases, do not return over time.JOURNAL, Matsuura, Hiroaki, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the future demographic crisis, Biodemography and Social Biology, 2 January 2022, 67, 1, 1â2, 10.1080/19485565.2022.2061524, 35379045, 247953665, 1948-5565, free, Approximately 3.8 million more people have left the country during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine,WEB, Refugees fleeing Ukraine (since 24 February 2022), UNHCR,data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine, 2022, 23 March 2022, 10 March 2022,web.archive.org/web/20220310051210/https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine, live, and thousands have died in the conflict.NEWS, ‘Terrible toll’: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in numbers,www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/terrible-toll-russias-invasion-of-ukraine-in-numbers/, Euractiv, 14 February 2023, NEWS, Hussain, Murtaza, The War in Ukraine Is Just Getting Started,theintercept.com/2023/03/09/ukraine-war-russia-iran-iraq/, The Intercept, 9 March 2023, The Russian invasion of Ukraine considerably deepened the country’s demographic crisis. The birth rate in Ukraine was 28% lower in the first six months of 2023 compared to the same period in 2021.NEWS, Ukraine’s birth rate plummets in aftermath of Russian invasion, data shows,www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/02/ukraines-birth-rate-plummets-in-aftermath-of-russian-invasion-data-shows, The Guardian, 2 August 2023, A July 2023 study by the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies stated that “[r]egardless of how long the war lasts and whether or not there is further military escalation, Ukraine is unlikely to recover demographically from the consequences of the war. Even in 2040 it will have only about 35 million inhabitants, around 20% fewer than before the war (2021: 42.8 million) and the decline in the working-age population is likely to be the most severe and far-reaching.“WEB, Knapp, Andreas, Ukraine: Population loss endangers reconstruction,wiiw.ac.at/ukraine-population-loss-endangers-reconstruction-n-603.html, WIIW, 13 July 2023,Hungary
Hungary’s population peaked in 1980, at 10,709,000,WEB,portal.ksh.hu/pls/ksh/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_long/h_wdsd001a.html, STADAT â 1.1. Population, vital statistics (1900â), portal.ksh.hu, 16 September 2017, and has continued its decline to under 10 million as of August 2010.NEWS,blogs.wsj.com/new-europe/2010/10/28/hungarian-population-falls-below-10-million/, The Wall Street Journal, Veronika, Gulyas, Hungarian Population Falls Below 10 Million, October 28, 2010, This represents a decline of 7.1% since its peak; however, compared to neighbors situated to the East, Hungary peaked almost a decade earlier yet the rate has been far more modest, averaging â0.23% a year over the period.Balkans
Albania
Albania’s population in 1989 recorded 3,182,417 people, the largest for any census. Since then, its population declined to an estimated 2,893,005 in January 2015.WEB,www.citypopulation.de/Albania.html, Albania: Prefectures, Municipalities, Municipal Units, Cities and Agglomerations â Population Statistics in Maps and Charts, www.citypopulation.de, 16 September 2017, The decline has since accelerated with a 1.3% drop in population reported in 2021 leaving a total population of 2.79 million.WEB,www.instat.gov.al/media/9828/popullsia-me-1-janar-2022_final-15-04-2022.pdf, Popullsia e Shqipërisë, www.instat.gov.al/, 17 April 2021, This represents a decrease of 12% in total population since the peak census figure.Bosnia and Herzegovina
Bosnia and Herzegovina’s population peaked at 4,377,033 in the 1991 Census, shortly before the Yugoslav wars that produced tens of thousands of civilian victims and refugees. The latest census of 2016 reported a population of 3,511,372.WEB,www.bhas.ba/tematskibilteni/DEM_00_2016_TB_0_BS.pdf, Demography 2016, 24 October 2018,www.bhas.ba/tematskibilteni/DEM_00_2016_TB_0_BS.pdf," title="web.archive.org/web/20181114162731www.bhas.ba/tematskibilteni/DEM_00_2016_TB_0_BS.pdf,">web.archive.org/web/20181114162731www.bhas.ba/tematskibilteni/DEM_00_2016_TB_0_BS.pdf, 14 November 2018, dead, This represents a 19.8% decline since the peak census figure.Bulgaria
Bulgaria’s population declined from a peak of 9,009,018 in 1989 and since 2001, has lost yet another 600,000 people, according to 2011 census preliminary figures to no more than 7.3 million,WEB,www.sofiaecho.com/2011/03/01/1052038_bulgarian-population-shrinks-by-about-600-000, Kapital Quarterly, Capital.bg, 16 September 2017, further down to 7,245,000. This represents a 24.3% decrease in total population since the peak and a â0.82% annual rate in the last 10 years.The Bulgarian population has fallen by more than 844,000 people, or 11.5 percent, in the last decade, the National Institute of Statistics in Sofia said during a presentation of the results so far of the 2021 census, the first since 2011.The country currently employs just over 6.5 million people, compared to 7.3 million in the previous workforce.Croatia
Croatia’s population declined from 4,784,265 in 1991Croatian Bureau of Statistics Naselja i stanovniÅ¡tvo Republike Hrvatske 1857.-2001. (eng. Settlements and Population of Croatia 1857â2001) (in Croatian) {{webarchive |url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120505110305www.dzs.hr/Hrv/pxweb2003/database/Naselja%20i%20stanovnistvo%20Republike%20Hrvatske/Naselja%20i%20stanovnistvo%20Republike%20Hrvatske.asp |date=May 5, 2012 }}, accessed 7 July 2013 to 4,456,096Croatian Bureau of Statistics Census of Population, Households and Dwellings 2011, First Results by Settlements (PDF file), accessed 7 July 2013 (by the old statistical method) of which 4,284,889{{Croatian Census 2011|S}} are permanent residents (by the new statistical method), in 2011, a decline of 8% (11.5% by the new definition of permanent residency in 2011 census). The main reasons for the decline since 1991 are: low birth rates, emigration and war in Croatia. From 2001 and 2011 main reason for the drop in population is due to a difference in the definition of permanent residency used in censuses till 2001 (censuses of 1948, 1953, 1961, 1971, 1981, 1991 and 2001) and the one used in 2011.Croatian Bureau of Statistics Notes on methodology (Census 2011), accessed 7 July 2013 By 2021 the population dropped to 3,888,529, a 9.25% decrease from 2011 numbers.Greece
Greece’s population declined by about half a million people between its 2011 and 2021 censuses. The main drivers are increased emigration rates and lower birth rates following the 2007â2008 financial crisis.NEWS,greekreporter.com/2021/10/02/greek-population-declined-half-a-million-decade/, Greek Population Has Declined by Up to Half a Million in a Decade, Greek Reporter, 2 October 2021, 6 December 2021,Romania
Romania’s 1991 census showed 23,185,084 people, and the October 2011 census recorded 20,121,641 people, while the state statistical estimate for 2014 is 19,947,311.WEB,citypopulation.de/Romania-Cities.html, Romania: Counties and Major Cities â Population Statistics in Maps and Charts, citypopulation.de, 16 September 2017, This represents a decrease of 16.2% since the historical peak in 1991.Serbia
Serbia recorded a peak census population of 7,822,795 in 1991 in the Yugoslav era, falling to 7,186,862 in the 2011 census.WEB,webrzs.stat.gov.rs/WebSite/userFiles/file/Aktuelnosti/Nacionalna%20pripadnost-Ethnicity.pdf,web.archive.org/web/20121202075324/http://webrzs.stat.gov.rs/WebSite/userFiles/file/Aktuelnosti/Nacionalna%20pripadnost-Ethnicity.pdf, 2 December 2012, Ethnicity: Data by municipalities and cities, 2012, sr:ÐÐЦÐÐÐÐÐÐÐ ÐÐ ÐÐÐÐÐÐСТ: ÐодаÑи по опÑÑинама и гÑадовима, Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, 978-86-6161-025-7, sr,en, 14, That represents a decline of 5.1% since its peak census figure.Other
Venezuela
In spite of a positive natural increase of almost 1% per year,WEB, 2022, World Population Prospects 2022, Standard Projections, Compact File, Estimates tab, Natural Change - Births minus Deaths column,population.un.org/wpp/Download/Standard/MostUsed/, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, Venezuela’s population has declined during the 2015-20 period due to emigration caused by threats of violence as well as shortages of basic needs.WEB, September 21, 2022, Explainer: So, why are so many Venezuelans leaving their country?,www.cbsnews.com/miami/news/explainer-so-why-are-so-many-venezuelans-leaving-their-country/, CBS Miami,Lebanon
In 2015, the population of Lebanon was reached as 6.39 million people. The population began declining in 2016, with a total population of 6.25 million, 6.10 million in 2017 and 5.95 million in 2018. The 2017 census records there are a total of 5.41 million people in Lebanon.Resumed declines
Countries whose population declines halted temporarily, but have since resumed:Russia
{{Further|Russian Cross|Demographic crisis of Russia}}File:Deserted village.jpg|thumb|Thousands of abandoned villageabandoned villageFile:â 3009 Ð.Ð. СÑаÑÑков.jpg|thumb|Russian soldier killed in Ukraine. Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine has further exacerbated Russia’s demographic crisis.NEWS, Kolesnikov, Andrei, Russia’s Second, Silent War Against Its Human Capital,carnegieendowment.org/politika/88983, Carnegie Endowment for International PeaceCarnegie Endowment for International PeaceThe decline in Russia’s total population is among the largest in numbers, but not in percentage. After having peaked at 148,689,000 in 1991, the population then decreased, falling to 142,737,196 by 2008.WEB,cbsd.gks.ru/, ÐнÑеÑакÑÐ¸Ð²Ð½Ð°Ñ Ð²Ð¸ÑÑина, cbsd.gks.ru, 16 September 2017,cbsd.gks.ru/," title="web.archive.org/web/20170130012026cbsd.gks.ru/,">web.archive.org/web/20170130012026cbsd.gks.ru/, 30 January 2017, dead, This represents a 4.0% decrease in total population since the peak census figure. However, the Russian population then rose to 146,870,000 in 2018. This recent trend can be attributed to a lower death rate, higher birth rate, the annexation of Crimea and continued immigration, mostly from Ukraine and Armenia. It is some 40% above the 1950 population.WEB,tass.com/society/1041670, How Russia’s population changed over the years, TASS, Russia has become increasingly reliant on immigration to maintain its population; 2021 had the highest net immigration since 1994,WEB,www.demoscope.ru/weekly/2022/0937/barom01.php, ÐигÑаÑÐ¸Ñ Ð² РоÑÑии, пÑедваÑиÑелÑнÑе иÑоги 2021 года (Migration in Russia, preliminary results of 2021), ÐнÑÑиÑÑÑ Ð´ÐµÐ¼Ð¾Ð³ÑаÑии ÐÐУ ÐШРимени Ð.Ð. ÐиÑневÑкого (Institute of Demography, National Research University A.G. Vishnevsky), 2022, 2022-03-26, despite which there was a small overall decline from 146.1 million to 145.4 million in 2021, the largest decline in over a decade.WEB,interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/75708/, Natural population decrease in Russia down by 21% in Jan 2022 vs Jan 2021, but twice higher than in Jan 2020 - Rosstat, 6 March 2022, Interfax News Agency, 2022-03-26, The natural death rate in January 2020, 2021, and 2022 have each been nearly double the natural birth rate.In March 2023, The Economist reported that “Over the past three years the country has lost around 2 million more people than it would ordinarily have done, as a result of war [in Ukraine], disease and exodus.“NEWS, March 4, 2023, Russia’s population nightmare is going to get even worse, The Economist,www.economist.com/europe/2023/03/04/russias-population-nightmare-is-going-to-get-even-worse, According to Russian economist Alexander Isakov, “Russia’s population has been declining and the war will reduce it further. Reasons? Emigration, lower fertility and war-related casualties.“NEWS, Putin’s War Escalation Is Hastening Demographic Crash for Russia,www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-18/putin-s-war-escalation-is-hastening-demographic-crash-for-russia, Bloomberg, 18 October 2022, The UN is projecting that the decline that started in 2021 will continue, and if current demographic conditions persist, Russia’s population would be 120 million in fifty years, a decline of about 17%.,Spain
Spanish population fell by over 100 thousand in 2020, likely to continue as a long-term demographic trend.NEWS, April 20, 2021, Spain’s population fell in 2020, ending four-year growth streak, Reuters,www.reuters.com/article/spain-population-idUSL8N2MD312, 29 July 2021,Italy
Italian population fell by a record amount in 2020, likely to continue as a long-term demographic trend.NEWS, Salzano, Giovanni, March 26, 2021, Italy’s Population Fell the Most in Over 100 Years in 2020, Bloomberg,www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-26/italy-s-population-falls-most-in-over-100-years-in-2020, 29 July 2021,Portugal
Between 2011 and 2021, Portugal’s population declined from 10.56 to 10.34 million people.WEB, Resident population (No.) by Place of residence, Sex and Age group,www.ine.pt/xportal/xmain?xpid=INE&xpgid=ine_indicadores&contecto=pi&indOcorrCod=0011166&selTab=tab0, Instituto Nacional de EstatÃstica (Portugal), Instituto Nacional de EstatÃstica, 2022-03-24, The fertility rate has been consistently below 2 since the early 1980s, and the gap is increasingly being made up by immigrants.NEWS, 18 Jun 2021, Brazilians flock into Portugal for the fourth straight year, MercoPress, South Atlantic News Agency,en.mercopress.com/2021/06/18/brazilians-flock-into-portugal-for-the-fourth-straight-year, 2022-03-24,Halted declines
Germany
In Germany, a continuously low birth rate has been offset by waves of immigration. From 2002 to 2011 the population declined by 2 million, the most since the Cold War.WEB,www-genesis.destatis.de/genesis/online?operation=previous&levelindex=2&step=2&titel=Result&levelid=1650152682238&acceptscookies=false, Population of Germany, 1950-2020, Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis), 2020, 2022-04-16, The 2011 national census recorded a population of 80.2 million people,WEB, Census Population (Germany): Federal States, Cities and Communes â Population Statistics, Charts and Map,www.citypopulation.de/php/germany-census.php, 16 September 2017, www.citypopulation.de, following which official estimates showed an increase of 3 million over the next decade. The official estimate for 2020 was a slight decrease from 2019. Third-party estimates show a slight increase, instead.WEB,www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/germany/population, Germany Population, CEIC, 2022, 2022-04-16,Ireland
In the current area of the Republic of Ireland, the population has fluctuated dramatically. The population of Ireland was 8 million in 1841, but it dropped due to the Irish famine and later emigration. The population of the Republic of Ireland hit a bottom at 2.8 million in the 1961 census, but it then rose and in 2011 it was 4.58 million. As of 2020, it is estimated to be just under 5 million according to the country’s Central Statistics Office.WEB,www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/pme/populationandmigrationestimatesapril2019/, Population and Migration Estimates April 2019 - CSO - Central Statistics Office,Poland
The population of Poland in the last 20 years has caused many years of recorded growth and decline with the population. The recorded population of Poland between 2002 and 2006 had shown a decreasing trend while between 2007 and 2012 the population had an increasing trend.WEB, Fertility rate: children per woman,ourworldindata.org/grapher/children-born-per-woman, 2022-12-31, Our World in Data, Though since 2020, COVID-19 has started to cause the population to decline rapidly, with over 117,000 people reportedly dying from COVID-19 in Poland by October 2022.WEB, Poland: WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard With Vaccination Data,covid19.who.int/, 2022-12-31, covid19.who.int, en, Poland also saw a large number of Ukrainian Refugees move into Poland, with over 7.8 million people having crossed the border by October 2022 between Poland and Ukraine since the war began, of which 1.4 million have stayed in Poland.WEB, August 2022, Refugees from Ukraine in Poland, profiling update August 2022,reliefweb.int/attachments/0c529dc9-1524-444f-899a-0ab9f3e61e8d/REACH_Protection_Profiling_August_2022.pdf, 2023-01-01, Reliefweb.Int,Syria
Syria’s population declined during the period 2012 - 2018 due to an ongoing civil war. During that period many Syrians emigrated to other Middle eastern countries. The civil war makes an accurate count of the Syrian population difficult, but the UN estimates that it peaked in 2012 at 22.9 million and dropped to 18.9 million in 2018, a decline of 17%.WEB, 2022, World Population Prospects 2022, Standard Projections, Compact File, Estimates tab, Total Population, as of 1 January column,population.un.org/wpp/Download/Standard/MostUsed/, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, Since then Syria’s population has resumed growing, and the UN projects that by 2025 it will have reached 24.9 million.WEB, 2022, World Population Prospects 2022, Standard Projections, Compact File, Variant tab, Total Population, as of 1 January column,population.un.org/wpp/Download/Standard/MostUsed/, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division,Declines within regions or ethnic groups of a country
{{See also|Majority minority|White flight|New Great Migration|Antinatalism|White demographic decline}}United States
{{See also|Aging of the United States|Demographics of the United States}}{{multiple image| height = 150| footer = | image1 = US population growth rates since 1900.jpg| alt1 = | caption1 = US population growth rates since 1900| image2 = US population birth, death, and growth rates since 2000.jpg| alt2 = | caption2 = US population change and the components of change since 2000}}In spite of a growing population at a national level, some formerly large American municipalities have dramatically shrunk after the Second World War, and in particular during the 1950sâ1970s, due to suburbanization, urban decay, race riots, high crime rates, deindustrialization and emigration from the Rust Belt to the Sun Belt. For instance, Detroit’s population peaked at almost 2 million in 1953,BOOK, Jacobs, Andrew James, The world’s cities : contrasting regional, national, and global perspectives, 2013, Routledge, New York, 9780415894852, 355, 1st, and then declined to less than 700,000 by 2020. Other cities whose populations have dramatically shrunk since the 1950s include Baltimore, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Flint, Gary, New Orleans, St. Louis, Pittsburgh, Scranton, Youngstown and Wilmington (Delaware). In addition, the depopulation of the Great Plains, caused by a very high rate of rural flight from isolated agricultural counties, has been going on since the 1930s.In addition, starting from the 1950s, the United States has witnessed the phenomenon of the white flight or white exodus,BOOK, Barry C. Feld, Donna M. Bishop, The Oxford Handbook of Juvenile Crime and Juvenile Justice, 2013, Oxford University Press, 978-0199338276, The Kerner Commission report ... concluded that “Our nation is moving toward two societies, one black, one white” ... Black urban in-migration and White exodus had developed concentrations of impoverished persons., BOOK, Robert W. Kweit, People and Politics in Urban America, Second Edition, 2015, Routledge, 978-1138012028, The U.S. court of Appeals ruled that Norfolk was rightly concerned with the white exodus from public schools and that the decision to end mandatory busing was not based on discriminatory intent, but on the desire to keep enough whites in the school system to prevent resegregation., BOOK, Timothy J. Minchin, John A. Salmond, After the Dream: Black and White Southerners since 1965 (Civil Rights and Struggle), 2011, University Press of Kentucky, Chapter 8 ‘Mixed Outcomes’, 978-0813129785, Even success in desegregating downtown stores and buses was now undercut by the white exodus. As they fled the cities, many whites lost interest in the civil rights issue., the large-scale migration of people of various European ancestries from racially mixed urban regions to more racially homogeneous suburban or exurban regions. The term has more recently been applied to other migrations by whites, from older, inner suburbs to rural areas, as well as from the U.S. Northeast and Midwest to the warmer climate in the Southeast and Southwest.BOOK, The Encyclopedia of Race, Ethnicity, and Society, Richard T., Schaefer, 2008, SAGE publications, ENCYCLOPEDIA, Merriam-Webster Dictionary,www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/white%20flight, white flight, BOOK, Armor, David J.,books.google.com/books?id=BJuAZpULzAsC&q=%22causes+white+flight%22+armor&pg=PA177, Forced Justice: School Desegregation and the Law, Oxford University Press US, 1986, 978-0-1953-58179, Migration of middle-class white populations was observed during the Civil rights movement in the 1950s and 1960s out of cities such as Cleveland, Detroit, Kansas City and Oakland, although racial segregation of public schools had ended there long before the Supreme Court of the United States’ decision Brown v. Board of Education in 1954. In the 1970s, attempts to achieve effective desegregation (or “integration“) using forced busing in some areas led to more families moving out of former areas.BOOK, Clotfelter, Charles T., After Brown: The Rise and Retreat of School Desegregation,archive.org/details/afterbrownrisere00clot, registration, Princeton University Press, 2004, 9780691119113, BOOK, Ravitch, Diane, (The Troubled Crusade: American Education, 1945â1980), 1983, Basic Books, New York City, 978-0-4650-87570, 177, School desegregation and White Flight, More recently, as of 2018, California had the largest ethnic/racial minority population in the United States; Non-Hispanic whites decreased from about 76.3 â 78% of the state’s population in 1970WEB,www.census.gov/population/www/documentation/twps0056/tab19.xls, Historical Census Statistics on Population Totals By Race, California, Census.gov, October 7, 2017, to 36.6%% in 2018 and 39.3% of the total population was Hispanic-Latino (of any race).WEB,data.census.gov/cedsci/table?q=B03002&tid=ACSDT1Y2018.B03002&lastDisplayedRow=20&hidePreview=true&vintage=2018&layer=county&cid=B03002_001E&g=0400000US06, B03002 HISPANIC OR LATINO ORIGIN BY RACE â California â 2018 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates, July 1, 2018, U.S. Census Bureau, November 25, 2019, A combination of long-term trends, housing affordability, falling birthrates and rising death rates from the COVID-19 pandemic have caused as many as 16 US states to start declining in population.WEB, Census Estimates Show Population Decline in 16 States,pew.org/2LTnp8a, 2021-07-04, pew.org, The Commonwealth of Puerto Rico’s population peaked in 2000 at 3.8 million and has since declined to 3.3 million in 2020, due to a negative natural change, and emigration, due to natural disasters and economic difficulties.France
The term ‘Empty diagonal’ is used for French departments that have low or declining populations. Due to continued emigration, many departments in France are seeing declines in population, including: Aisne, Allier, Ardennes, Cantal, Charente, Cher, Corrèze, Creuse, Dordogne, Eure, Eure-et-Loir, Haute-Marne, Haute-Saône, Haute-Vienne, Indre, Jura, Loir-et-Cher, Lot-et-Garonne, Lozère, Manche, Marne, Mayenne, Meuse, Moselle, Nièvre, Orne, Paris, Sarthe, Somme, Territoire de Belfort, Vosges and Yonne. For more information, see the List of French departments by population.South Africa
The term ‘white flight’ has also been used for large-scale post-colonial emigration of whites from Africa, or parts of that continent,NEWS, (Almost) Out of Africa: The White Tribes, World Affairs Journal, Joshua Hammer, MayâJune 2010,worldaffairsjournal.org/article/almost-out-africa-white-tribes, 2020-05-08,www.worldaffairsjournal.org/article/almost-out-africa-white-tribes," title="web.archive.org/web/20160330032448www.worldaffairsjournal.org/article/almost-out-africa-white-tribes,">web.archive.org/web/20160330032448www.worldaffairsjournal.org/article/almost-out-africa-white-tribes, 2016-03-30, usurped, NEWS, Mosiuoa ‘Terror’ Lekota threatens to topple the ANC, Johnson, RW, October 19, 2008, The Times,www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/africa/article4969026.ece, London, BOOK, The atlas of changing South Africa, 2nd, Christopher, A.J., 2000, Routledge, 213, 978-0-2031-85902, BOOK, The uncertain promise of Southern Africa, York W., Bradshaw, Stephen N., Ndegwa, 2001, Indiana Univ. Press, 6, BOOK, Reinhardt, Steven G., Dennis P., Reinhartz, Transatlantic history, 2006, Texas A&M University Press, 978-1-5854-44861, 1st, 149â150,archive.org/details/transatlantichis0000unse/page/149, driven by levels of violent crime and anti-colonial state policies. In recent decades, there has been a steady and proportional decline in South Africa’s white community, due to higher birth rates among other South African ethnic groups, as well as a high rate of emigration. In 1977, there were 4.3 million White South Africans, constituting 16.4% of the population at the time. An estimated 800,000 emigrated between 1995 and 2016,White flight from South Africa | Between staying and going {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160812131659www.economist.com/node/12295535 |date=12 August 2016 }}, The Economist, 25 September 2008 citing crime and a lack of employment opportunities.WEB, Million whites leave SA â study,www.fin24.com/articles/default/display_article.aspx?ArticleId=1518-25_2003186, 24.com, 5 June 2013, Peet van Aardt,www.fin24.com/articles/default/display_article.aspx?ArticleId=1518-25_2003186," title="web.archive.org/web/20080416135445www.fin24.com/articles/default/display_article.aspx?ArticleId=1518-25_2003186,">web.archive.org/web/20080416135445www.fin24.com/articles/default/display_article.aspx?ArticleId=1518-25_2003186, 16 April 2008, 24 September 2006,India
The Parsis of India have one of the lowest fertility rates in the world (0.8 children per woman in 2017); this coupled with emigration has resulted in population decline at least since the 1940s. Their population has more than halved from its peak.WEB, Dore, Bhavya, 21 July 2017, Glimmer of hope at last for India’s vanishing Parsis,www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-40628310, BBC,National efforts to confront declining populations
{{Further|Human population planning}}A country with a declining population will struggle to fund public services such as health care, old age benefits, defense, education, water and sewage infrastructure, etc.NEWS,www.economist.com/international/2018/05/05/many-countries-suffer-from-shrinking-working-age-populations, Many countries suffer from shrinking working-age populations, May 5, 2018, The Economist, To maintain some level of economic growth and continue to improve its citizens’ quality of life, national efforts to confront declining populations will tend to focus on the threat of a declining GDP. Because a country’s GDP is dependent on the size and productivity of its workforce, a country confronted with a declining population, will focus on increasing the size and productivity of that workforce.Increase the size of the workforce
A country’s workforce is that segment of its working-age population that is employed. Working age population is generally defined as those people aged 15â64.WEB,data.oecd.org/pop/working-age-population.htm, Working age population, 2020, OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development), Policies that could increase the size of the workforce include:- Natalism
- Financial incentives. These may include child benefits and other public transfers that help families cover the cost of children.
- Support for parents to combine family and work. This includes maternity-leave policies, parental-leave policies that grant (by law) leaves of absence from work to care for their children, and childcare services.
- Broad social change that encourages children and parenting
- Encourage more women to join the workforce.
- Stop the decline of men in the workforce.
- Raise the retirement age.
- Pension reform. Many retirement policies encourage early retirement. For example, in 2018 less than 10% of Europeans between ages 64â74 were employed. Instead of encouraging work after retirement, many public pension plans restrict earnings or hours of work.JOURNAL, Fitzpatrick, Maria D., November 2018, Pension Reform and Return to Work Policies,www.nber.org/papers/w25299, The National Bureau of Economic Research, 10.3386/w25299, 239843977,
- Workplace cultural reform. Employer attitudes towards older workers must change. Extending working lives will require investment in training and working conditions to maintain the productivity of older workers.
- Increase immigration.
- Reduce emigration.
Increase the productivity of the workforce
{{See also|Automation}}Development economists would call increasing the size of the workforce “extensive growth”. They would call increasing the productivity of that workforce “intensive growth”. In this case, GDP growth is driven by increased output per worker, and by extension, increased GDP/capita.NEWS, January 12, 2013, Has the ideas machine broken down?,www.economist.com/briefing/2013/01/12/has-the-ideas-machine-broken-down, The Economist, In the context of a stable or declining population, increasing workforce productivity is better than mostly short-term efforts to increase the size of the workforce. Economic theory predicts that in the long term, most growth will be attributable to intensive growth, that is, new technology and new and better ways of doing things plus the addition of capital and education to spread them to the workforce.Increasing workforce productivity through intensive growth can only succeed if workers who become unemployed through the introduction of new technology can be retrained so that they can keep their skills current and not be left behind. Otherwise, the result is technological unemployment.BOOK, Brynjolfsson, Erik, Race Against The Machine: How the Digital Revolution is Accelerating Innovation, Driving Productivity, and Irreversibly Transforming Employment and the Economy, McAfee, Andrew, Digital Frontier Press, 2011, Funding for worker retraining could come from a robot tax, although the idea is controversial.WEB, Rubin, Richard, January 8, 2020, The “Robot Tax” Debate Heats Up,www.wsj.com/articles/the-robot-tax-debate-heats-up-11578495608, The Wall Street Journal, WEB, Delaney, Kevin, February 17, 2017, The robot that takes your job should pay taxes, says Bill Gates,qz.com/911968/bill-gates-the-robot-that-takes-your-job-should-pay-taxes/, QUARTZ,Long-term future trends
(File:Births and deaths per year (1950-2100).svg|Births and deaths per year (1950-2100))A long-term population decline is typically caused by sub-replacement fertility, coupled with a net immigration rate that fails to compensate for the excess of deaths over births.BOOK, Bonin, Holger, Generational accounting: theory and application, Springer, 2001, 978-3-540-42266-2, A long-term decline is accompanied by population aging and creates an increase in the ratio of retirees to workers and children. When a sub-replacement fertility rate remains constant, population decline accelerates over the long term.Because of the global decline in the fertility rate, projections of future global population show a marked slowing of population growth and the possibility of long-term decline.The table below summarizes the United Nations projections for future population growth. Any such long-term projections are necessarily highly speculative. The UN divides the world into six regions. Under their projections, during the period 2045â2050, Europe’s population will be in decline and all other regions will experience significant reductions in growth; then, by the end of the 21st century (the period 2095â2100) three of these regions will be showing population decline and global population will have peaked and started to decline.{| class=“wikitable sortable”See also
{{colbegin}}- Sub-replacement fertility
- Zero population growth
- Birth dearth
- History of Easter IslandDestruction of society and population
- Human extinction
- Human overpopulation
- Human population planning
- Negative Population Growth
- Political demography
- Population cycle
- Population growth
- Rural flight
- Societal collapse
- Antinatalism
- Russian Cross
- Empty diagonal
- List of sovereign states and dependencies by total fertility rate
- Aging of Europe
- Aging of Japan
- Aging of South Korea
- Aging of the United States{{colend}}
References
{{Reflist|30em}}Further reading
- WEB,ia801907.us.archive.org/30/items/human-population-numbers-as-a-function-o/Human_population_numbers_as_a_function_o.pdf, Human population numbers as a function of food supply, Russell Hopfenberg (1 Duke University, Durham, NC, USA;) and David Pimentel (scientist), David Pimentel (2 Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA), Environment, development and sustainability 3.1: 1-15.,
- Funabashi, Yoichi. Japan’s Population Implosion: The 50 Million Shock (Palgrave Macmillan, 2018). weblink
- Yoshikawa, Hiroshi. Population and the Japanese Economy: Longevity, Innovation, and Economic Growth (Japan Publishing Industry Foundation for Culture, 2020). weblink
- content above as imported from Wikipedia
- "Population decline" does not exist on GetWiki (yet)
- time: 7:04am EDT - Wed, May 22 2024
- "Population decline" does not exist on GetWiki (yet)
- time: 7:04am EDT - Wed, May 22 2024
[ this remote article is provided by Wikipedia ]
LATEST EDITS [ see all ]
GETWIKI 21 MAY 2024
The Illusion of Choice
Culture
Culture
GETWIKI 09 JUL 2019
Eastern Philosophy
History of Philosophy
History of Philosophy
GETWIKI 09 MAY 2016
GetMeta:About
GetWiki
GetWiki
GETWIKI 18 OCT 2015
M.R.M. Parrott
Biographies
Biographies
GETWIKI 20 AUG 2014
GetMeta:News
GetWiki
GetWiki
© 2024 M.R.M. PARROTT | ALL RIGHTS RESERVED