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world population
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{{pp|small=yes}}{{short description|The total number of living humans on Earth}}{{verify sources|date=March 2016}}{{Use mdy dates|date=July 2013}}(File:World population v3.svg|thumb|upright=1.2|World population estimates from 1800 to 2100, based on "high", "medium" and "low" United Nations projections in 2015 and UN historical estimates for pre-1950 data)File:Population Growth by World Bank continental division.png|thumb|upright=1.2|Population growth graph generated with data supplied by World Bank, via GoogleGoogle(File:World population percentage.png|right|thumb|upright=1.2|World population percentage by country)In demographics, the world population is the total number of humans currently living, and was estimated to have reached 7.7 billion people {{as of|April 2019|lc=y}}.WEB,weblink World Population Clock: 7.7 Billion People (2019) - Worldometers, www.worldometers.info, en, 2019-04-27, It took over 200,000 years of human history for the world's population to reach 1 billion;WEB,weblink World Population to Hit Milestone With Birth of 7 Billionth Person, PBS NewsHour, 11 February 2018, 2011-10-27, and only 200 years more to reach 7 billion.WEB,weblink World population hits 6 billion, 4 March 2004, 11 February 2018, World population has experienced continuous growth since the end of the Great Famine of 1315–1317 and the Black Death in 1350, when it was near 370 million.Jean-Noël Biraben (1980), "An Essay Concerning Mankind's Evolution". Population, Selected Papers. Vol. 4. pp. 1–13. Original paper in French:(b) Jean-Noël Biraben (1979)."Essai sur l'évolution du nombre des hommes". Population. Vol. 34 (no. 1). pp. 13–25. The highest population growth rates – global population increases above 1.8% per year – occurred between 1955 and 1975, peaking to 2.06% between 1965 and 1970.WEB,weblink World Population Prospects - Population Division - United Nations, esa.un.org, 2016-09-15, The growth rate has declined to 1.18% between 2010 and 2015 and is projected to decline further in the course of the 21st century. However, the global population is still growingJOURNAL, Ortiz-Ospina, Esteban, Roser, Max, 2013-05-09, World Population Growth,weblink Our World in Data, and is projected to reach about 10 billion in 2050 and more than 11 billion in 2100.WEB,weblink World Population Prospects - Population Division - United Nations, population.un.org, 2019-03-26, Total annual births were highest in the late 1980s at about 139 million,WEB,weblink World Population Prospects, 2012 revision (697 million births from 1985–1990), United Nations, 2012, May 11, 2015, yes,weblink" title="web.archive.org/web/20140827000606weblink">weblink August 27, 2014, and as of 2011 were expected to remain essentially constant at a level of 135 million,WEB,weblink Annual number of births – World, United Nations Population Division, 2011, March 27, 2015, while deaths numbered 56 million per year and were expected to increase to 80 million per year by 2040.WEB,weblinkweblink" title="web.archive.org/web/20120111060647weblink">weblink yes, January 11, 2012, World Population estimates by the US Census Bureau, USCB, May 22, 2012, The median age of the world's population was estimated to be 30.4 years in 2018.male 29.6, female 31.1 years.WEB,weblink CIA, The World Factbook: Field Listing: Median Age, www.cia.gov, 13 May 2018, {| class="infobox" style="float: right; font-size:90%"! colspan="5" style="text-align:center; background:#cfb;"| World population (millions, UN estimates)! style="background:#cfb;"| #! style="background:#cfb;"| Top ten most populous countries! style="background:#cfb;"| 2000! style="background:#cfb;"| 2015! style="background:#cfb;"| 2030*
1 style="text-align:left;"China}} Demographics of China* > 1,270 style="text-align:right;" 1,416
2 style="text-align:left;"India}} Demographics of India > 1,053 style="text-align:right;" 1,528
3 style="text-align:left;"United States}} Demographics of the United States > 283 style="text-align:right;" 356
4 style="text-align:left;"Indonesia}} Demographics of Indonesia > 212 style="text-align:right;" 295
5 style="text-align:left;"Pakistan}} Demographics of Pakistan > 136 style="text-align:right;" 245
6 style="text-align:left;"Brazil}} Demographics of Brazil > 176 style="text-align:right;" 228
7 style="text-align:left;"Nigeria}} Demographics of Nigeria > 123 style="text-align:right;" 263
8 style="text-align:left;"Bangladesh}} Demographics of Bangladesh > 131 style="text-align:right;" 186
9 style="text-align:left;"Russia}} Demographics of Russia > 146 style="text-align:right;" 149
10 style="text-align:left;"Mexico}} Demographics of Mexico > 103 style="text-align:right;" 148
style="background:#cfb;"
style="text-align:left; background:#cfb;"World total > 6,127 style="text-align:right; background:#cfb;" 8,501
Notes:

Population by region

Six of the Earth's seven continents are permanently inhabited on a large scale. Asia is the most populous continent, with its 4.54 billion inhabitants accounting for 60% of the world population. The world's two most populated countries, China and India, together constitute about 36% of the world's population. Africa is the second most populated continent, with around 1.28 billion people, or 16% of the world's population. Europe's 742 million people make up 10% of the world's population as of 2018, while the Latin American and Caribbean regions are home to around 651 million (9%). Northern America, primarily consisting of the United States and Canada, has a population of around 363 million (5%), and Oceania, the least populated region, has about 41 million inhabitants (0.5%).WEB,weblink World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision Population Database, United Nations, April 15, 2011, April 21, 2012, Though it is not permanently inhabited by any fixed population, Antarctica has a small, fluctuating international population based mainly in polar science stations. This population tends to rise in the summer months and decrease significantly in winter, as visiting researchers return to their home countries.">

Population by continent{| class"wikitable sortable"|+Population by continent (2016 estimates)

!Continent!Density(inhabitants/km2)!Population(millions)!Most populous country!Most populous city (metropolitan area)
|Asia
{{#expr:4298723000/44579000 round 1}} 4,436Hong Kong and Macau. - {{Flag>China}}Japan}} Greater Tokyo Area/Tokyo Metropolis
|Africa
{{#expr:1110635000/30221532 round 1}} 1,216Nigeria}}Nigeria}} Lagos
|Europe
{{#expr:742452000/10180000 round 1}} 738Russia}};approx. 112 million in Europe)Russia}} Moscow metropolitan area/MoscowHTTPS://WWW.WORLDATLAS.COM/ARTICLES/LARGEST-CITIES-IN-EUROPE-BY-POPULATION.HTML > TITLE=LARGEST CITIES IN EUROPE,
|North AmericaIncluding Central America and the Caribbean.
{{#expr: 565265000/(42549000-17840000) round 1}} 579United States}}United States}} New York Metropolitan Area/New York City
|South America
{{#expr:406740000/17840000 round 1}} 422Brazil}}Brazil}} Greater São Paulo/São Paulo>São Paulo City
|Oceania
{{#expr:38304000/8525989 round 1}} 39.9Australia}}Australia}} Sydney
|Antarctica
0.0003(varies) 0.004 in summer(non-permanent, varies)HTTPS://WWW.CIA.GOV/LIBRARY/PUBLICATIONS/THE-WORLD-FACTBOOK/GEOS/AY.HTML >TITLE=ANTARCTICADATE=JUNE 19, 2014, March 18, 2015, |N/AThe Antarctic Treaty System limits the nature of national claims in Antarctica. Of the territorial claims in Antarctica, the Ross Dependency has the largest population.|1,200 (non-permanent, varies) - McMurdo Station

History

{{See also|World population estimates|History of the world}}Estimates of world population by their nature are an aspect of modernity, possible only since the Age of Discovery. Early estimates for the population of the worldthe compound "world population" becomes common from c. the 1930s, adapted from early 20th-century "world's population"; pre-20th century authors use "population of the world". date to the 17th century: William Petty in 1682 estimated world population at 320 million (modern estimates ranging close to twice this number); by the late 18th century, estimates ranged close to one billion (consistent with modern estimates)."The population of the world, which Sir W. P. in 1682, stated at only 320 millions, has been estimated by some writers at about 730 millions, by others, at upwards of 900 millions; Mr. Wallace, of Edinburgh, conjectured it might amount to 1000 millions, and this number has since generally been adopted who have noticed the subject;" The Monthly Magazine 4 (July–December 1797), p. 167. More refined estimates, broken down by continents, were published in the first half of the 19th century, at 600 to 1000 million in the early 1800s and at 800 to 1000 million in the 1840s.600 million: Simon Gray, The Happiness of States (1818), p. 356.800 million: Gordon Hall, Samuel Newell, The Conversion of the World (1818), p. 10.800 to 1000 million: John Redman Coxe, Considerations Respecting the Recognition of Friends in Another World (1845), p. 21 (footnote with references).It is difficult for estimates to be better than rough approximations, as even modern population estimates are fraught with uncertainties on the order of 3% to 5%.

Ancient and Post-classical history

Estimates of the population of the world at the time agriculture emerged in around 10,000 BC have ranged between 1 million and 15 million.BOOK, Luc-Normand Tellier, 2009,weblink Urban world history: an economic and geographical perspective, 26, 978-2-7605-1588-8, Ralph Thomlinson, 1975, Demographic Problems: Controversy over population control, 2nd Ed., Dickenson Publishing Company, Ecino, CA, {{ISBN|0-8221-0166-1}}. Even earlier, genetic evidence suggests humans may have gone through a population bottleneck of between 1,000 and 10,000 people about 70,000 BC, according to the Toba catastrophe theory. By contrast, it is estimated that around 50–60 million people lived in the combined eastern and western Roman Empire in the 4th century AD.WEB,weblink Population estimates of the Roman Empire, 1998, Tulane.edu,weblink" title="web.archive.org/web/20160507061006weblink">weblink 2016-05-07, Dr. Kenneth W. Harl, December 8, 2012, The Plague of Justinian, which first emerged during the reign of the Roman emperor Justinian, caused Europe's population to drop by around 50% between the 6th and 8th centuries AD.WEB,weblink Plague, Plague Information, Black Death Facts, News, Photos, National Geographic, November 3, 2008, The population of Europe was more than 70 million in 1340.WEB,weblink History of Europe – Demographic and agricultural growth, Encyclopædia Britannica, 2012, December 17, 2012, The Black Death pandemic of the 14th century may have reduced the world's population from an estimated 450 million in 1340 to between 350 and 375 million in 1400;WEB,weblink Historical Estimates of World Population, Census.gov, November 12, 2016, it took 200 years for population figures to recover.JOURNAL, Jay, Peter,weblink A Distant Mirror, TIME Europe, July 17, 2000, 156, 3, August 9, 2014,weblink" title="web.archive.org/web/20080725005418weblink">weblink July 25, 2008, The population of China decreased from 123 million in 1200 to 65 million in 1393,BOOK, Horst R. Thieme, 2003,weblink Mathematics in population biology, 285, 978-0-691-09291-1, presumably due to a combination of Mongol invasions, famine, and plague.BOOK, Graziella Caselli, Gillaume Wunsch, Jacques Vallin, yes, 2005,weblink Demography: Analysis and Synthesis, Four Volume Set: A Treatise in Population, 34, 978-0-12-765660-1, Starting in AD 2, the Han Dynasty of ancient China kept consistent family registers in order to properly assess the poll taxes and labor service duties of each household.Nishijima, Sadao (1986), "The economic and social history of Former Han", in Twitchett, Denis; Loewe, Michael, Cambridge History of China: Volume I: the Ch'in and Han Empires, 221 B.C. – A.D. 220, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp 595-96. In that year, the population of Western Han was recorded as 57,671,400 individuals in 12,366,470 households, decreasing to 47,566,772 individuals in 9,348,227 households by AD 146, towards the End of the Han Dynasty. At the founding of the Ming Dynasty in 1368, China's population was reported to be close to 60 million; toward the end of the dynasty in 1644, it may have approached 150 million.WEB,weblink Qing China's Internal Crisis: Land Shortage, Famine, Rural Poverty, 2009, Columbia University: Asia for Educators, July 9, 2013, England's population reached an estimated 5.6 million in 1650, up from an estimated 2.6 million in 1500.WEB,weblink History of Europe – Demographics, Encyclopædia Britannica, July 9, 2013, New crops that were brought to Asia and Europe from the Americas by Portuguese and Spanish colonists in the 16th century are believed to have contributed to population growth.WEB,weblink China's Population: Readings and Maps, Columbia University: East Asian Curriculum Project, December 18, 2012, WEB,weblink The Columbian Exchange, University of North Carolina, December 18, 2012, yes,weblink July 26, 2011, mdy-all, BOOK, Vindaloo: the Portuguese and the chilli pepper. Curry: A Tale of Cooks and Conquerors., Collingham, Lizzie, Oxford: Oxford University Press., 2006, 978-0-19-988381-3, 47–73, Since their introduction to Africa by Portuguese traders in the 16th century,WEB,weblink Super-Sized Cassava Plants May Help Fight Hunger In Africa, Ohio State University, May 24, 2006, July 9, 2013, yes,weblink" title="web.archive.org/web/20131208143623weblink">weblink December 8, 2013, mdy-all, maize and cassava have similarly replaced traditional African crops as the most important staple food crops grown on the continent.BOOK,weblink Albert Schweitzer: a biography, James Brabazon, 2000, 242, 978-0-8156-0675-8, The pre-Columbian North American population probably numbered somewhere between 2 million and 18 million.JOURNAL, Microchronology and Demographic Evidence Relating to the Size of Pre-Columbian North American Indian Populations, Science (journal), Science, June 16, 1995, 10.1126/science.268.5217.1601, 17754613, 268, 5217, 1601–1604, Snow, D. R, 1995Sci...268.1601S, Encounters between European explorers and populations in the rest of the world often introduced local epidemics of extraordinary virulence.BOOK, Arthur C. Aufderheide, Conrado Rodríguez-Martín, Odin Langsjoen, yes, 1998,weblink The Cambridge encyclopedia of human paleopathology, 205, 978-0-521-55203-5, According to the most extreme scholarly claims, as many as 90% of the Native American population of the New World died due to Old World diseases such as smallpox, measles and influenza.WEB,weblink The Story Of... Smallpox – and other Deadly Eurasian Germs, Public Broadcasting Service, 2005, April 24, 2013, Over the centuries, the Europeans had developed high degrees of immunity to these diseases, while the indigenous peoples had no such immunity.BOOK, Austin Alchon, Suzanne, A pest in the land: new world epidemics in a global perspective,weblink University of New Mexico Press, 2003, 31, 978-0-8263-2871-7,

Modern history

(File:2006megacities.svg|thumb|upright=1.35|right|Map showing urban areas with at least one million inhabitants in 2006. Only 3% of the world's population lived in urban areas in 1800; this proportion had risen to 47% by 2000, and reached 50.5% by 2010.WEB,weblink World Demographics Profile 2012, Index Mundi, May 22, 2012, By 2050, the proportion may reach 70%.WEB,weblink By 2050, 70% of the world's population will be urban. Is that a good thing?, Fast Co. Design, 2012, May 1, 2012, )During the European Agricultural and Industrial Revolutions, the life expectancy of children increased dramatically.{{citation|url=http://home.vicnet.net.au/~ozideas/poprus.htm|title=Population crises and cycles in history – A review by Claire Russell and W.M.S. Russell|publisher=Vicnet.net.au|accessdate=March 26, 2015|deadurl=yes|archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20110405081151weblink|archivedate=April 5, 2011|df=mdy-all}} The percentage of the children born in London who died before the age of five decreased from 74.5% in 1730–1749 to 31.8% in 1810–1829.BOOK, Mabel C., Buer, Health, Wealth and Population in the Early Days of the Industrial Revolution, London, George Routledge & Sons, 1926, 30, 978-0-415-38218-2, WEB,weblink The Foundling Hospital, BBC History, October 5, 2012, April 22, 2013, Between 1700 and 1900, Europe's population increased from about 100 million to over 400 million.WEB,weblink Modernization – Population Change, Encyclopædia Britannica, February 6, 2013, Altogether, the areas populated by people of European descent comprised 36% of the world's population in 1900.BOOK, Graziella Caselli, Gillaume Wunsch, Jacques Vallin, yes, 2005,weblink Demography: Analysis and Synthesis, Four Volume Set: A Treatise in Population, 42, 978-0-12-765660-1, Population growth in the West became more rapid after the introduction of vaccination and other improvements in medicine and sanitation.WEB,weblink Victorian Medicine – From Fluke to Theory, BBC History, February 1, 2002, February 17, 2013, Improved material conditions led to the population of Britain increasing from 10 million to 40 million in the 19th century.WEB,weblink A portrait of Britain in 2031, The Independent, October 24, 2007, February 17, 2013, The population of the United Kingdom reached 60 million in 2006.NEWS,weblink UK population breaks through 60m, BBC News, August 24, 2006, April 14, 2012, The United States saw its population grow from around 5.3 million in 1800 to 106 million in 1920, exceeding 307 million in 2010.WEB,weblink US population through history, About.com, April 14, 2012, The first half of the 20th century in Imperial Russia and the Soviet Union was marked by a succession of major wars, famines and other disasters which caused large-scale population losses (approximately 60 million excess deaths).BOOK, Jay Winter, Emmanuel Sivan, War and Remembrance in the Twentieth Century,weblink 2000, Cambridge University Press, 978-0521794367, 64, BOOK, Mark Harrison, 2002,weblink Accounting for War: Soviet Production, Employment, and the Defence Burden, 1940–1945, 167, 978-0-521-89424-1, After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia's population declined significantly – from 150 million in 1991 to 143 million in 2012NEWS,weblink Vladimir Putin vows to reverse Russian population decline, The Daily Telegraph, February 13, 2012, April 13, 2012, – but by 2013 this decline appeared to have halted.WEB,weblink Russia's Population Decline Said To Have 'Stopped', Radio Free Europe, May 27, 2013, June 15, 2013, Many countries in the developing world have experienced extremely rapid population growth since the early 20th century, due to economic development and improvements in public health. China's population rose from approximately 430 million in 1850 to 580 million in 1953,JOURNAL, China's demographic evolution 1850–1953 reconsidered, The China Quarterly, 75, 1978, 652987, 639–646, Schran, Peter, and now stands at over 1.3 billion. The population of the Indian subcontinent, which was about 125 million in 1750, increased to 389 million in 1941;WEB,weblink Reintegrating India with the World Economy, Peterson Institute for International Economics, 2003, November 8, 2012, today, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh are collectively home to about {{Formatnum: {{#expr: ({{Formatnum: 1,266,883,598 |R}} + {{Formatnum: 201,995,540 |R}} + {{Formatnum: 156,186,882 |R}}) / 1e9 round 2}}}} billion people.WEB,weblink The World Factbook — Central Intelligence Agency, www.cia.gov, 2017-01-08, Java had about 5 million inhabitants in 1815; its present-day successor, Indonesia, now has a population of over 140 million.WEB,weblink Java (island, Indonesia), Encyclopædia Britannica, July 7, 2013, In just one hundred years, the population of Brazil decupled (x10), from about 17 million in 1900, or about 1% of the world population in that year, to about 176 million in 2000, or almost 3% of the global population in the very early 21st century. Mexico's population grew from 13.6 million in 1900 to about 112 million in 2010.WEB, Jorge Durand,weblink From Traitors to Heroes: 100 Years of Mexican Migration Policies, University of Guadalajara, March 2004, July 16, 2013, WEB,weblink Population and Housing Census: Mexico 2010, University of Minnesota, March 3, 2011, July 16, 2013, Between the 1920s and 2000s, Kenya's population grew from 2.9 million to 37 million.NEWS, Gunnar Heinsohn, Gunnar Heinsohn,weblink Kenya's Violence: Exploding population, The New York Times, January 7, 2008, July 7, 2013,

Milestones by the billions

{| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center; float:right; clear:right; margin-left:8px; margin-right:0;"! colspan=10 style="text-align:center;" | World population milestones in billions (USCB estimates)! Population! 1 !! 2 !! | 3 !! 4 !! 5 !! 6 !! 7 !! 8 !! 9
! Year
2012 >2027 >| 2046
! Years elapsed
13 >15 >| 19
It is estimated that the world population reached one billion for the first time in 1804. It was another 123 years before it reached two billion in 1927, but it took only 33 years to reach three billion in 1960.WEB,weblink The World at Six Billion: Introduction, United Nations, 1999, July 14, 2013, yes,weblink" title="web.archive.org/web/20160205063346weblink">weblink February 5, 2016, Thereafter, the global population reached four billion in 1974, five billion in 1987, six billion in 1999 and, according to the United States Census Bureau, seven billion in March 2012.WEB,weblink U.S. Census Bureau – World POPClock Projection, July 2013, The number on this page is automatically updated daily. The United Nations, however, estimated that the world population reached seven billion in October 2011.NEWS,weblink Population seven billion: UN sets out challenges, October 26, 2011, BBC News, October 27, 2011, NEWS,weblink World's 'seven billionth baby' is born, October 31, 2011, The Guardian, October 31, 2011, London, Jasmine, Coleman, WEB,weblink 7 billion people is a 'serious challenge, UPI, October 31, 2011, November 9, 2011, According to current projections, the global population will reach eight billion by 2024, and is likely to reach around nine billion by 2042. Alternative scenarios for 2050 range from a low of 7.4 billion to a high of more than 10.6 billion.
  • BOOK, Ch. 5: Population Size and Composition, World Population Prospects, the 2000 Revision, Vol.III, United Nations Population Division, 171,weblink July 3, 2010,
  • BOOK, 2002, Executive Summary, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision Volume III: Analytical Report,weblink July 3, 2010,
  • JOURNAL, 2004, 3, 14, World Population to 2300, New York, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs: Population Division,weblink July 3, 2010,
  • JOURNAL, June 2010, World Population: 1950–2050, United States Census Bureau,weblink July 3, 2010,
  • JOURNAL, 2009, 2009 World Population Data Sheet, Washington, DC, Population Reference Bureau,weblink July 3, 2010, Projected figures vary depending on underlying statistical assumptions and the variables used in projection calculations, especially the fertility variable. Long-range predictions to 2150 range from a population decline to 3.2 billion in the "low scenario", to "high scenarios" of 24.8 billion. One extreme scenario predicted a massive increase to 256 billion by 2150, assuming the global fertility rate remained at its 1995 level of 3.04 children per woman; however, by 2010 the global fertility rate had declined to 2.52.WEB,weblink Total fertility estimates, 1950–2010, UN Population Division, April 2011, June 14, 2012,
There is no estimation for the exact day or month the world's population surpassed one or two billion. The points at which it reached three and four billion were not officially noted, but the International Database of the United States Census Bureau placed them in July 1959 and April 1974 respectively. The United Nations did determine, and commemorate, the "Day of 5 Billion" on July 11, 1987, and the "Day of 6 Billion" on October 12, 1999. The Population Division of the United Nations declared the "Day of 7 Billion" to be October 31, 2011.WEB,weblink World Population Prospects, the 2008 Revision – Frequently Asked Questions, Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, November 10, 2010, March 26, 2015, {{Needs update|date=October 2018}}

Global demographics

File:Expectancy of life.svg|thumb|400px|{| width=100%
{{legend|#0000CD|>80}}{{legend|#4169E1|77.5–80}}{{legend|#00BFFF|75–77.5}}{{legend|#3CB371|72.5–75}}{{legend|#32CD32|70–72.5}}{{legend|#ADFF2F|67.5–70}}{{legend|#FFFF00|65–67.5}}{{legend|#FFD700|60–65}}{{legend|#FF8C00|55–60}}{{legend|#FF4500|50–55}}
( 2015 map showing average life expectancy by country in years. In 2015, the World Health Organization estimated the average global life expectancy as 71.4 years.WEB, World Health Statistics 2016: Monitoring health for the SDGs Annex B: tables of health statistics by country, WHO region and globally, World Health Organization,weblink 110, 2016, August 3, 2018, )
As of 2012, the global sex ratio is approximately 1.01 males to 1 female. The greater number of men is possibly due to the significant sex imbalances evident in the Indian and Chinese populations.WEB,weblink World Demographics Profile 2011, Index Mundi, November 18, 2011, WEB,weblink Sex-ratio imbalance in Asia: Trends, consequences and policy responses, UNFPA, 2007, May 20, 2012, Approximately 26.3% of the global population is aged under 15, while 65.9% is aged 15–64 and 7.9% is aged 65 or over. The median age of the world's population was estimated to be 29.7 years in 2014,WEB,weblink World Demographics Profile 2014, Index Mundi, October 4, 2014, and is expected to rise to 37.9 years by 2050.WEB,weblink General debate on national experience in population matters: adolescents and youth, Janneh, Abdoulie, United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, April 2012, February 19, 2014, According to the World Health Organization, the global average life expectancy is 71.4 years as of 2015, with women living an average of 74 years and men approximately 69 years. In 2010, the global fertility rate was estimated at 2.52 children per woman. In June 2012, British researchers calculated the total weight of Earth's human population as approximately 287 million tonnes, with the average person weighing around {{convert|62|kg|lb}}.NEWS,weblink Global weight gain more damaging than rising numbers, BBC, June 18, 2012, February 12, 2013, The CIA estimated nominal 2013 gross world product at US$74.31 trillion, giving an annual global per capita figure of around US$10,500.WEB,weblink World, CIA World Factbook, 2015, January 17, 2015, Around 1.29 billion people (18.4% of the world population) live in extreme poverty, subsisting on less than US$1.25 per day;WEB,weblink What It Will Take to 'Graduate' 1.2 Billion People Out of Extreme Poverty, The Huffington Post, April 4, 2012, April 26, 2012, approximately 870 million people (12.25%) are undernourished.Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, The State of Food Insecurity in the World. WorldHunger.org. 2012. Retrieved April 26, 2012. 83% of the world's over-15s are considered literate. In June 2014, there were around 3.03 billion global Internet users, constituting 42.3% of the world population.WEB,weblink Statistics, Internet World Stats, June 30, 2014, March 5, 2015, The Han Chinese are the world's largest single ethnic group, constituting over 19% of the global population in 2011."World’s Most Typical Person: Han Chinese Man". Wall Street Journal. March 4, 2011. Retrieved November 18, 2011. The world's most-spoken first languages are Mandarin Chinese (spoken by 12.44% of the world's population), Spanish (4.85%), English (4.83%), Arabic (3.25%) and Hindustani (2.68%). The world's largest religion is Christianity, whose adherents account for 31% of the global population; Islam is the second-largest religion, accounting for 24.1%, and Hinduism the third, accounting for 13.78%. In 2005, around 16% of the global population were reported to be non-religious.Religions by adherents. Adherents.com. 2005 data. Retrieved December 19, 2011.

Largest populations by country

{{Further|List of countries and dependencies by population}}(File:Countries and Dependencies by Population in 2014.svg|thumb|upright=2.25|A map of world population in 2014)(File:Countries_population_graph.jpeg|frameless|upright=2.25|right)

10 most populous countries

{| class="wikitable sortable" style="text-align:left" ! height="39px"!style="width:80"| Rank || Country / Territory || Population || Date || % of worldpopulation || Source
{{FlagMainland China only. It excludes Taiwan and the Special Administrative Region of the People's Republic of China>special administrative regions of Hong Kong and Macau. {{data ChinaPUBLISHER=NATIONAL BUREAU OF STATISTICS OF CHINA, August 23, 2016,
{{Flagpoptoday 1}} HTTP://WWW.INDIASTAT.COM>TITLE=OFFICIAL POPULATION CLOCK,
{{Flagpoptoday 1}} HTTPS://WWW.CENSUS.GOV/POPULATION/WWW/POPCLOCKUS.HTML >TITLE=UNITED STATES OFFICIAL POPULATION CLOCK (UPDATED DAILY), USCB,
{{FlagACCESSDATE=JULY 1, 2018,
{{Flag
{{Flagpoptoday 1}} HTTP://WWW.IBGE.GOV.BR/APPS/POPULACAO/PROJECAO/INDEX.HTML>TITLE=OFFICIAL POPULATION CLOCK, IBGE.gov.br,
{{FlagPUBLISHER=WORLD BANKACCESSDATE=MARCH 21, 2015,
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Approximately 4.38 billion people live in these ten countries, representing around 57% of the world's population as of July 2018.

Most densely populated countries

{{Further|List of countries and dependencies by population density}}The tables below list the world's most densely populated countries, both in absolute terms and in comparison to their total populations.(File:World population density 1994.png|thumb|right|upright=1.8|Population density (people per km2) map of the world in 1994. Red and pink areas denote regions of highest population density.){| class="wikitable sortable" style="text-align:right"|+10 most densely populated countries (with population above 5 million)! Rank !! Country !! Population !! Area (km2) !! Density (Pop. per km2)
{{Flag| {{formatnum:{{#expr: 5638700 / 710 round 0}}}}
{{Flagpopareadens2}}
{{Flag| {{#expr: 23577488 / 36193 round 0}}
{{Flag| {{#expr: 6093509 / 10452 round 0}}
{{Flag| {{#expr: 51635256 / 99538 round 0}}
{{Flag| {{#expr: 12001136 / 26338 round 0}}
{{Flagpopareadens2}}
{{Flag| {{#expr: 11112945 / 27065 round 0}}
{{Flagpopareadens2}}
{{Flagpopareadens2}}
{| class="wikitable sortable" style="text-align:right"|+ Countries ranking highly in both total population (more than 20 million people) and population density (more than 250 people per square kilometer):! Rank !! Country !! Population !! Area (km2) !! Density (Pop. per km2) !!Notes
{{Flagpopareadens2}} Growing population
{{Flagpopareadens2}} Rapidly growing population
{{Flagpopareadens2}} Rapidly growing population
{{Flag| Declining population
{{Flagpopareadens2}} Growing population
{{Flag| Growing population
{{Flag| Slowly growing population
{{Flag| Slowly growing population
{{Flag| Steady population
{{Flag| Growing population

Fluctuation

File:World population (UN).svg|thumb|right|upright=1.35|right|Estimates of population evolution in different continents between 1950 and 2050, according to the United Nations. The vertical axis is logarithmic and is in millions of people.]]Population size fluctuates at differing rates in differing regions. Nonetheless, population growth is the long-standing trend on all inhabited continents, as well as in most individual states. During the 20th century, the global population saw its greatest increase in known history, rising from about 1.6 billion in 1900 to over 6 billion in 2000. A number of factors contributed to this increase, including the lessening of the mortality rate in many countries by improved sanitation and medical advances, and a massive increase in agricultural productivity attributed to the Green Revolution.NEWS,weblink The limits of a Green Revolution?, BBC News, March 29, 2007, August 1, 2010, WEB,weblinkweblink" title="web.archive.org/web/20080422210924weblink">weblink April 22, 2008, The Real Green Revolution, Energybulletin.net, August 1, 2010, WEB,weblink World Population to 2300, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2004, June 16, 2013, In 2000, the United Nations estimated that the world's population was growing at an annual rate of 1.14% (equivalent to around 75 million people),WEB,weblink International Programs, USCB, January 7, 2009, December 16, 2012, down from a peak of 88 million per year in 1989. By 2000, there were approximately ten times as many people on Earth as there had been in 1700. Globally, the population growth rate has been steadily declining from its peak of 2.19% in 1963, but growth remains high in Latin America, the Middle East, and Sub-Saharan Africa.BOOK, Ron Nielsen, 2006, The Little Green Handbook, Picador, New York, 978-0-312-42581-4, File:Fertility rate world map 2.png|thumb|right|upright=1.35|Map of countries by fertility rate (2018), according to CIA World FactbookCIA World FactbookDuring the 2010s, Japan and some countries in Europe began to encounter negative population growth (i.e. a net decrease in population over time), due to sub-replacement fertility rates.NEWS,weblink Japan's population suffers biggest fall in history, Daily Telegraph, April 17, 2013, July 22, 2013, London, Danielle, Demetriou, In 2006, the United Nations stated that the rate of population growth was visibly diminishing due to the ongoing global demographic transition. If this trend continues, the rate of growth may diminish to zero by 2050, concurrent with a world population plateau of 9.2 billion.WEB,weblink 2006 report highlights, United Nations, August 1, 2010, However, this is only one of many estimates published by the UN; in 2009, UN population projections for 2050 ranged between around 8 billion and 10.5 billion.WEB,weblink UN population estimates and projections, database query, August 2009, United Nations, March 11, 2009, August 1, 2010, An alternative scenario is given by the statistician Jorgen Randers, who argues that traditional projections insufficiently take into account the downward impact of global urbanization on fertility. Randers' "most likely scenario" reveals a peak in the world population in the early 2040s at about 8.1 billion people, followed by decline.BOOK, Randers, Jorgen, 2012, 2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years, Vermont: Chelsea Green Publishing, 62, Adrian Raftery, a University of Washington professor of statistics and of sociology, states that "there’s a 70 percent probability the world population will not stabilize this century. Population, which had sort of fallen off the world’s agenda, remains a very important issue."World population to keep growing this century, hit 11 billion by 2100. UWToday. September 18, 2014File:Population curve.svg|Estimated world population figures, 10,000 BC–AD 2000File:World population growth (lin-log scale).png|Estimated world population figures, 10,000 BC–AD 2000 (in log y scale)File:World population history.svg|World population figures, 1950–2017File:World population growth rate 1950–2050.svg|Estimated global growth rates, 1950–2050File:UN DESA continent population 1950 to 2100.svg|Estimated and projected populations of the world and its continents (except Antarctica) from 1950 to 2100. The shaded regions correspond to the range of projections by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs.

Population growth by region

{{see|Total fertility rate|Birth rate}}The table below shows historical and predicted regional population figures in millions.WEB,weblink The World at Six Billion, United Nations, October 12, 1999, August 1, 2010, WEB,weblink Population Growth over Human History, University of Michigan, January 4, 2006, March 9, 2013, yes,weblink" title="web.archive.org/web/20110724101452weblink">weblink July 24, 2011, mdy-all, The availability of historical population figures varies by region.{| class="wikitable sortable" style="font-size:97%; text-align:right;"|+World historical and predicted populations (in millions)Figures include the former Soviet countries in Europe. BOOK, Academic Press, 978-0-12-765660-1, Caselli, Graziellaauthor3=Jacques Vallin
, Demography: Analysis and Synthesis, Four Volume Set: A Treatise in Population, December 20, 2005, 42
, WEB,weblink UN report – 2004 data, August 1, 2010, yes,weblink" title="web.archive.org/web/20160205063346weblink">weblink February 5, 2016, NEWS,weblink World Population Prospects The 2015 Revision, !Region||1500||1600||1700||1750||1800||1850||1900||1950||1999||2008||2010||2012||2050||2150
!World
|9,746
!Africa
|2,308
!Asia
|5,561
!Europe
|517
!Latin America{{r|group=Note|Americas}}
|912
!North America{{r|group=Note|Americas}}
|398
!Oceania
|51
{| class="wikitable sortable" style="font-size:97%; text-align:right;"|+World historical and predicted populations by percentage distribution!Region||1500||1600||1700||1750||1800||1850||1900||1950||1999||2008||2010||2012||2050||2150
!Africa
|23.7
!Asia
|57.1
!Europe
|5.3
!Latin America{{r|group=Note|Americas}}
|9.4
!North America{{r|group=Note|Americas}}
|4.1
!Oceania
|0.5

Past population

The following table gives estimates, in millions, of population in the past. The data for 1750 to 1900 are from the UN report "The World at Six Billion"WEB, The World at Six Billion,weblink UN Population Division,weblink" title="web.archive.org/web/20160305042434weblink">weblink March 5, 2016, no, , weblink" title="web.archive.org/web/20160101220025weblink">Table 2 whereas the data from 1950 to 2015 are from a UN data sheet.WEB, World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision,weblink UN Population Division,weblink" title="web.archive.org/web/20151222125602weblink">weblink December 22, 2015, no, . Linked to at weblink" title="web.archive.org/web/20151225073428weblink">Download Files, where it states that the figures are for July 1 of the given year.{| class="wikitable" style="text-align:right;"! Year! style="width:70px;"| World! style="width:70px;"| Africa! style="width:70px;"| Asia! style="width:70px;"| Europe! style="width:70px;"| Latin America & Carib.{{r|group=Note|Americas}}! style="width:70px;"| North America{{r|group=Note|Americas}}! style="width:70px;"| Oceania! Notes
!style="text-align: right;" |70,000 BC| < 0.015|||| 0| 0|
Toba catastrophe theory, though this theory has been criticized by some scientists. See: HTTPS://WWW.BBC.CO.UK/NEWS/SCIENCE-ENVIRONMENT-22355515PUBLISHER=BBC NEWSACCESSDATE=MARCH 21, 2015,
!style="text-align: right;" |10,000 BC| 4||||||
Historical Estimates of World Population; see also *KREMER AUTHORLINK = MICHAEL KREMER TITLE = POPULATION GROWTH AND TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE: ONE MILLION B.C. TO 1990 JOURNAL = THE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS ISSUE = 3 DOI=10.2307/2118405, 2118405,
!style="text-align: right;" | 8000 BC| 5|||||||
!style="text-align: right;" | 6500 BC| 5|||||||
!style="text-align: right;" | 5000 BC| 5|||||||
!style="text-align: right;" | 4000 BC| 7|||||||
!style="text-align: right;" | 3000 BC| 14|||||||
!style="text-align: right;" | 2000 BC| 27|||||||
!style="text-align: right;" | 1000 BC| 50| 7| 33| 9|||
date=September 2014}}
!style="text-align: right;" | 500 BC| 100| 14| 66| 16||||
!style="text-align: right;" | AD 1| 200| 23| 141| 28||||
!style="text-align: right;" | 1000| 400| 70| 269| 50| 8| 1| 2|
!style="text-align: right;" | 1500|458|86|243|84|39|3|3|
!style="text-align:right;" | 1600|580|114|339|111|10|3|3|
!style="text-align: right;" | 1700|682|106|436|125|10|2|3|
!style="text-align: right;" | 1750| 791| 106| 502| 163| 16| 2| 2|
!style="text-align: right;" | 1800| 1,000| 107| 656| 203| 24| 7| 3|
!style="text-align: right;" | 1850| 1,262| 111| 809| 276| 38| 26| 2|
!style="text-align: right;" | 1900| 1,650| 133| 947| 408| 74| 82| 6|
!style="text-align: right;" | 1950| 2,525| 229| 1,394| 549| 169| 172| 12.7|An approximation based on figures from different sources as listed at the US Census Bureau's Total Midyear Population for the World: 1950-2050
!style="text-align: right;" | 1955| 2,758| 254| 1,534| 577| 193| 187| 14.2|
!style="text-align: right;" | 1960| 3,018| 285| 1,687| 606| 221| 204| 15.8|
!style="text-align: right;" | 1965| 3,322| 322| 1,875| 635| 254| 219| 17.5|
!style="text-align: right;" | 1970| 3,682| 366| 2,120| 657| 288| 231| 19.7|
!style="text-align: right;" | 1975| 4,061| 416| 2,378| 677| 326| 242| 21.5|
!style="text-align: right;" | 1980| 4,440| 478| 2,626| 694| 365| 254| 23.0|
!style="text-align: right;" | 1985| 4,853| 550| 2,897| 708| 406| 267| 24.9|
!style="text-align: right;" | 1990| 5,310| 632| 3,202| 721| 447| 281| 27.0|
!style="text-align: right;" | 1995| 5,735| 720| 3,475| 728| 487| 296| 29.1|
!style="text-align: right;" | 2000| 6,127| 814| 3,714| 726| 527| 314| 31.1|
!style="text-align: right;" | 2005| 6,520| 920| 3,945| 729| 564| 329| 33.4|
!style="text-align: right;" | 2010| 6,930| 1,044| 4,170| 735| 600| 344| 36.4|
!style="text-align: right;" | 2015|7,349|1,186|4,393|738|634|358|39.3|
Using the above figures, the change in population from 2010 to 2015 was:
  • World: +420 million
  • Africa: +142 million
  • Asia: +223 million
  • Europe: +3 million
  • Latin America and Caribbean: +35 million
  • Northern America: +14 million
  • Oceania: +2.9 million

Projections

Long-term global population growth is difficult to predict. The United Nations and the US Census Bureau both give different estimates – according to the UN, the world population reached seven billion in late 2011,WEB,weblink World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, June 2009, June 20, 2013, while the USCB asserted that this occurred in March 2012.WEB,weblink US Census Bureau, Notes on the World POPClock and World Vital Events, February 12, 2013, The UN has issued multiple projections of future world population, based on different assumptions. From 2000 to 2005, the UN consistently revised these projections downward, until the 2006 revision, issued on March 14, 2007, revised the 2050 mid-range estimate upwards by 273 million.Average global birth rates are declining fast, but vary greatly between developed countries (where birth rates are often at or below replacement levels) and developing countries (where birth rates typically remain high). Different ethnicities also display varying birth rates. Death rates can change rapidly due to disease epidemics, wars and other mass catastrophes, or advances in medicine.2012 United projections show a continued increase in population in the near future with a steady decline in population growth rate; the global population is expected to reach between 8.3 and 10.9 billion by 2050.WEB,weblink World Population Prospects, the 2012 Revision – "Low variant" and "High variant" values, UN, 2012, June 15, 2013, WEB,weblink World population projected to reach 9.6 billion by 2050 – UN report, UN News Centre, June 14, 2013, June 16, 2013, 2003 UN Population Division population projections for the year 2150 range between 3.2 and 24.8 billion.BOOK, 2003, Key Findings, Long-Range Population Projections, Proceedings of the United Nations Technical Working Group on Long-Range Population Projections, New York, United Nations: Department of Economic and Social Affairs,weblink July 3, 2010, One of many independent mathematical models supports the lower estimate,WEB,weblink A model predicts that the world's populations will stop growing in 2050, ScienceDaily.com, April 4, 2013, June 3, 2013, while a 2014 estimate forecasts between 9.3 and 12.6 billion in 2100, and continued growth thereafter.WEB,weblink World population to hit 12bn in 2100 – with 70% chance of continuous rise, Carrington, Damien, September 18, 2014, The Guardian, September 21, 2014, JOURNAL, 10.1126/science.1257469, 25301627, World population stabilization unlikely this century, Science, 346, 6206, 234–7, AAAS, September 14, 2014, 1095-9203, Gerland, P., Raftery, A. E., Ev Ikova, H., Li, N., Gu, D., Spoorenberg, T., Alkema, L., Fosdick, B. K., Chunn, J., Lalic, N., Bay, G., Buettner, T., Heilig, G. K., Wilmoth, J., 4230924, 2014Sci...346..234G, Some analysts have questioned the sustainability of further world population growth, highlighting the growing pressures on the environment, global food supplies, and energy resources.BOOK, Peter P. Rogers, Kazi F. Jalal, John A. Boyd, yes, 2008,weblink An Introduction To Sustainable Development, 53, 9781849770477, BOOK, Zehner, Ozzie, Green Illusions, 2012, University of Nebraska Press, Lincoln and London, 187–331,weblink {| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center; margin:1em; float:left;"Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, XLS, June 2013, August 7, 2013, WEB,weblink World Population – Total Midyear Population for the World: 1950–2050, Census.gov, July 2015, March 7, 2016, ! Year! UN est.(millions)! Difference! USCB est.(millions)! Difference
!{{anchor|2005}}2005|6,514| –|6,473| –
!2010|6,916|402|6,866|393
!2015|7,324|408|7,256|390
!2020|7,717|393|7,643|380
!2025|8,083|366|8,007|363
!2030|8,425|342|8,341|334
!2035|8,743|318|8,646|306
!2040|9,039|296|8,926|280
!2045|9,308|269|9,180|254
!2050|9,551|243|9,408|228
{| class="wikitable" style="text-align:right; font-size:96%;"|+UN 2012 estimates and medium variant projections (in millions)! Year! World! Asia! Africa! Europe! Latin America/Caribbean! Northern America! Oceania!style="text-align: right;" |{{anchor|2010}}2010| 6,916| 4,165 (60.2%)| 1,031 (14.9%)| 740 (10.7%)| 596 (8.6%)| 347 (5.0%)| 37 (0.5%)
!style="text-align: right;" |{{anchor|2015}}2015| 7,324| 4,385 (59.9%)| 1,166 (15.9%)| 743 (10.1%)| 630 (8.6%)| 361 (4.9%)| 39 (0.5%)
!style="text-align: right;" |{{anchor|2020}}2020| 7,717| 4,582 (59.4%)| 1,312 (17.0%)| 744 (9.6%)| 662 (8.6%)| 376 (4.9%)| 42 (0.5%)
!style="text-align: right;" |{{anchor|2025}}2025| 8,083| 4,749 (58.8%)| 1,468 (18.2%)| 741 (9.2%)| 691 (8.5%)| 390 (4.8%)| 45 (0.6%)
!style="text-align: right;" |{{anchor|2030}}2030| 8,425| 4,887 (58.0%)| 1,634 (19.4%)| 736 (8.7%)| 717 (8.5%)| 403 (4.8%)| 47 (0.6%)
!style="text-align: right;" |{{anchor|2035}}2035| 8,743| 4,997 (57.2%)| 1,812 (20.7%)| 730 (8.3%)| 739 (8.5%)| 415 (4.8%)| 50 (0.6%)
!style="text-align: right;" |{{anchor|2040}}2040| 9,039| 5,080 (56.2%)| 1,999 (22.1%)| 724 (8.0%)| 757 (8.4%)| 426 (4.8%)| 52 (0.6%)
!style="text-align: right;" |{{anchor|2045}}2045| 9,308| 5,136 (55.2%)| 2,194 (23.6%)| 717 (7.7%)| 771 (8.3%)| 436 (4.7%)| 55 (0.6%)
!style="text-align: right;" |{{anchor|2050}}2050| 9,551| 5,164 (54.1%)| 2,393 (25.1%)| 709 (7.4%)| 782 (8.2%)| 446 (4.7%)| 57 (0.6%)
!style="text-align: right;" |{{anchor|2055}}2055| 9,766| 5,168 (52.9%)| 2,595 (26.6%)| 700 (7.2%)| 788 (8.1%)| 456 (4.7%)| 59 (0.6%)
!style="text-align: right;" |{{anchor|2060}}2060| 9,957| 5,152 (51.7%)| 2,797 (28.1%)| 691 (6.9%)| 791 (7.9%)| 465 (4.7%)| 61 (0.6%)
!style="text-align: right;" |{{anchor|2065}}2065| 10,127| 5,120 (50.6%)| 2,998 (29.6%)| 681 (6.7%)| 791 (7.8%)| 474 (4.7%)| 63 (0.6%)
!style="text-align: right;" |{{anchor|2070}}2070| 10,277| 5,075 (49.4%)| 3,195 (31.1%)| 673 (6.5%)| 788 (7.6%)| 482 (4.7%)| 64 (0.6%)
!style="text-align: right;" |{{anchor|2075}}2075| 10,409| 5,019 (48.2%)| 3,387 (32.5%)| 665 (6.4%)| 783 (7.5%)| 490 (4.7%)| 66 (0.6%)
!style="text-align: right;" |{{anchor|2080}}2080| 10,524| 4,957 (47.1%)| 3,570 (33.9%)| 659 (6.3%)| 776 (7.4%)| 496 (4.7%)| 67 (0.6%)
!style="text-align: right;" |{{anchor|2085}}2085| 10,626| 4,894 (46.1%)| 3,742 (35.2%)| 653 (6.1%)| 767 (7.2%)| 502 (4.7%)| 68 (0.6%)
!style="text-align: right;" |{{anchor|2090}}2090| 10,717| 4,833 (45.1%)| 3,903 (36.4%)| 649 (6.1%)| 757 (7.1%)| 506 (4.7%)| 69 (0.6%)
!style="text-align: right;" |{{anchor|2095}}2095| 10,794| 4,773 (44.2%)| 4,051 (37.6%)| 644 (6.0%)| 747 (6.9%)| 510 (4.7%)| 69 (0.6%)
!style="text-align: right;" |{{anchor|2100}}2100| 10,854| 4,712 (43.4%)| 4,185 (38.6%)| 639 (5.9%)| 736 (6.8%)| 513 (4.7%)| 70 (0.6%)

Mathematical approximations

In 1975, Sebastian von Hoerner proposed a formula for population growth which represented hyperbolic growth with an infinite population in 2025.JOURNAL, Sebastien von Hoerner, Population Explosion and Interstellar Expansion, Journal of the British Interplanetary Society, 28, 1975, 691–712, The hyperbolic growth of the world population observed until the 1970s was later correlated to a non-linear second order positive feedback between demographic growth and technological development. This feedback can be described as follows: technological advance → increase in the carrying capacity of land for people → demographic growth → more people → more potential inventors → acceleration of technological advance → accelerating growth of the carrying capacity → faster population growth → accelerating growth of the number of potential inventors → faster technological advance → hence, the faster growth of the Earth's carrying capacity for people, and so on.Introduction to Social Macrodynamics. Andrey Korotayev et al. For a rigorous mathematical analysis of this issue, see "A Compact Mathematical Model of the World System Economic and Demographic Growth, 1 CE – 1973 CE". The transition from hyperbolic growth to slower rates of growth is related to the demographic transition.According to the Russian demographer Sergey Kapitsa,JOURNAL, Sergei P., Kapitsa,weblink The phenomenological theory of world population growth, Physics-Uspekhi, 39, 1, 57–71, 1996, 2013-07-26, yes,weblink" title="web.archive.org/web/20090511041230weblink">weblink May 11, 2009, 10.1070/pu1996v039n01abeh000127, 1996PhyU...39...57K, the world population grew between 67,000 BC and 1965 according to the following formula:
N = frac{C}{tau} arccot frac{T_0-T}{tau}
where
  • N is current population
  • T is the current year
  • C = (1.86±0.01)·1011
  • T0 = 2007±1
  • tau = 42±1

Years for world population to double

According to linear interpolation and extrapolation of UNDESA population estimates, the world population has doubled, or will double, in the years listed in the tables below (with two different starting points). During the 2nd millennium, each doubling took roughly half as long as the previous doubling, fitting the hyperbolic growth model mentioned above. However, after 2024, it is unlikely that there will be another doubling of the global population in the 21st century.JOURNAL, Wolfgang, Lutz, Warren, Sanderson, Sergei, Scherbov, Doubling of world population unlikely, Nature, 387, 803–805, 1997-06-19, 6635, 10.1038/42935, 9194559, (File:Population-doubling.svg|thumb|upright=1.35|Historic chart showing the periods of time the world population has taken to double, from 1700 to 2000){| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center;"|+ Starting at 500 million! Population(in billions)! colspan=2 | 0.5 !! colspan=2 | 1 !! colspan=2 | 2 !! colspan=2 | 4 !! colspan=2 | 8! Year
1500 colspan=2 1927 colspan=2 2024
! colspan=2 | Years elapsed
304 colspan=2 47 colspan=2 | 50
{| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center;"|+ Starting at 375 million! Population(in billions)! colspan=2 | 0.375 !! colspan=2 | 0.75 !! colspan=2 | 1.5 !! colspan=2 | 3 !! colspan=2 | 6! Year
1171 colspan=2 1881 colspan=2 1999
! colspan=2 | Years elapsed
544 colspan=2 79 colspan=2 | 39

Overpopulation

Predictions of scarcity

File:Los Angeles Aerial view 2013.jpg|thumb|upright=1.25|Greater Los Angeles lies on a coastal mediterranean savannah with a small watershed that is able to support at most one million people on its own water; as of 2015, the area has a population of over 18 million. Researchers predict that similar cases of resource scarcity will grow more common as the world population increases.]]In his 1798 work An Essay on the Principle of Population, the British scholar Thomas Malthus incorrectly predicted that continued population growth would exhaust the global food supply by the mid-19th century. Malthus wrote the essay to refute what he considered the unattainable utopian ideas of William Godwin and Marquis de Condorcet, as presented in Political Justice and The Future Progress of the Human Mind. In 1968, Paul R. Ehrlich reprised Malthus' argument in The Population Bomb, predicting that mass global famine would occur in the 1970s and 1980s.NEWS,weblink Paul Ehrlich, a prophet of global population doom who is gloomier than ever, The Guardian, October 23, 2011, July 22, 2013, London, Juliette, Jowit, The predictions of Ehrlich and other neo-Malthusians were vigorously challenged by a number of economists, notably Julian Lincoln Simon, and advances in agriculture, collectively known as the Green Revolution, forestalled any potential global famine in the late 20th century. Between 1950 and 1984, as the Green Revolution transformed agriculture around the world, grain production increased by over 250%.JOURNAL, Kindall, Henery W, Pimentel, David, yes, Constraints on the Expansion of the Global Food Supply, Ambio, 23, 3, May 1994,weblink The world population has grown by over four billion since the beginning of the Green Revolution, but food production has so far kept pace with population growth. Most scholars believe that, without the Revolution, there would be greater levels of famine and malnutrition than the UN presently documents.NEWS,weblink The limits of a Green Revolution?, BBC News, March 29, 2007, February 18, 2013, However, neo-Malthusians point out that fossil fuels provided the energy for the Green Revolution, in the form of natural gas-derived fertilizers, oil-derived pesticides, and hydrocarbon-fueled irrigation, and that many crops have become so genetically uniform that a crop failure in any one country could potentially have global repercussions.WEB,weblink Host Plant Resistance and Conservation of Genetic Diversity, Radcliffe's IPM World Textbook, University of Minnesota, March 2013, July 20, 2013, In 2004, a meta-analysis of 70 quantitative studies estimating a sustainable limit to the world population generated a meta-estimate of 7.7 billion people.JOURNAL, van den Bergh, Jeroen C. J. M., Rietveld, Piet, Reconsidering the Limits to World Population: Meta-analysis and Meta-prediction, BioScience, 54, 3, 195, 0006-3568, 10.1641/0006-3568(2004)054[0195:RTLTWP]2.0.CO;2, 2004, In May 2008, the price of grain was pushed up severely by the increased cultivation of biofuels, the increase of world oil prices to over $140 per barrel ($880/m3),WEB,weblink The global grain bubble, Christian Science Monitor, January 18, 2008, February 18, 2013, global population growth,NEWS, James Randerson, science correspondent,weblink Food crisis will take hold before climate change, warns chief scientist, The Guardian, March 7, 2008, February 18, 2013, London, the effects of climate change,NEWS, John Vidal, environment editor,weblink Global food crisis looms as climate change and fuel shortages bite, The Guardian, November 3, 2007, February 18, 2013, London, the loss of agricultural land to residential and industrial development,WEB, Walsoft,weblink Experts: Global Food Shortages Could 'Continue for Decades', Marketoracle.co.uk, February 22, 2008, February 18, 2013, WEB,weblink Moya K. Mason, Has Urbanization Caused a Loss to Agricultural Land?, Moyak.com, July 9, 2013, and growing consumer demand in the population centres of China and India.NEWS, Walt, Vivienne,weblink The World's Growing Food-Price Crisis, Time, February 27, 2008, February 18, 2013, "The cost of food: Facts and figures". BBC. October 16, 2008. Retrieved February 18, 2013. Food riots subsequently occurred in some countries.NEWS, Julian Borger,weblink Feed the world? We are fighting a losing battle, UN admits, The Guardian, February 26, 2008, February 18, 2013, London, NEWS,weblink BBC News, Assessing the global food crisis, April 22, 2008, April 6, 2010, Emily, Buchanan, However, oil prices then fell sharply. Resource demands are expected to ease as population growth declines, but it is unclear whether mass food wastage and rising living standards in developing countries will once again create resource shortages.NEWS,weblink Half of all food 'wasted' report claims, BBC, January 10, 2013, January 10, 2013, WEB,weblink Oil shock could push world food prices higher, CNN Money, March 3, 2011, February 18, 2013, David Pimentel, professor of ecology and agriculture at Cornell University, estimates that the sustainable agricultural carrying capacity for the United States is about 200 million people; its population as of 2015 is over 300 million.BOOK, P. Crabbè, 2000, North Atlantic Treaty Organization Scientific Affairs Division/Springer,weblink Implementing ecological integrity: restoring regional and global environmental and human health, 411, 978-0-7923-6351-4, In 2009, the UK government's chief scientific advisor, Professor John Beddington, warned that growing populations, falling energy reserves and food shortages would create a "perfect storm" of shortages of food, water, and energy by 2030.WEB,weblink World faces 'perfect storm' of problems by 2030, chief scientist to warn, The Guardian, March 18, 2009, February 18, 2013, NEWS,weblink Global crisis 'to strike by 2030, BBC News, March 19, 2009, February 18, 2013, According to a 2009 report by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the world will have to produce 70% more food by 2050 to feed a projected extra 2.3 billion people.WEB,weblink Global food production will have to increase 70% for additional 2.3 billion people by 2050, Finfacts.com, September 24, 2009, February 18, 2013, The observed figures for 2007 showed an actual increase in absolute numbers of undernourished people in the world, with 923 million undernourished in 2007, versus 832 million in 1995.WEB, UN Food and Agriculture Organization – Economic and Social Development Department,weblink The State of Food Insecurity in the World, 2008: High food prices and food security – threats and opportunities, 2008, 2, December 8, 2012, The 2009 FAO estimates showed an even more dramatic increase, to 1.02 billion.WEB,weblink One sixth of humanity undernourished – more than ever before, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 2009, December 8, 2012,

Environmental impacts

{{See also|Human impact on the environment}}File:Manantenina bushfire.jpg|thumb|Illegal slash-and-burn agriculture in MadagascarMadagascarA number of scientists have argued that the current global population expansion and accompanying increase in resource consumption threatens the world's ecosystem.WEB,weblink Ecological Debt Day, February 18, 2013, yes,weblink" title="web.archive.org/web/20081217234021weblink">weblink December 17, 2008, mdy-all, WEB,weblink Planetary Boundaries: Specials, Nature, September 23, 2009, February 18, 2013, The InterAcademy Panel Statement on Population Growth, which was ratified by 58 member national academies in 1994, states that "unprecedented" population growth aggravates many environmental problems, including rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide, global warming, and pollution.WEB,weblink IAP (login required), InterAcademies.net, February 18, 2013, yes,weblink" title="web.archive.org/web/20100210203604weblink">weblink February 10, 2010, Indeed, some analysts claim that overpopulation's most serious impact is its effect on the environment.NEWS,weblink Overpopulation's Real Victim Will Be the Environment, TIME, October 26, 2011, February 18, 2013, The situation has continued to worsen, as at the time of the 1994 IAP statement, the world population stood at 5.5 billion and lower-bound scenarios predicted a peak of 7.8 billion by 2050, a number that current estimates state will be reached in the late 2020s.Scientists contend that human overpopulation, continued human population growth and overconsumption, particularly by the wealthy, are the primary drivers of mass species extinction.JOURNAL, Pimm, S. L., Jenkins, C. N., Abell, R., Brooks, T. M., Gittleman, J. L., Joppa, L. N., Raven, P. H., Roberts, C. M., Sexton, J. O., 30 May 2014, The biodiversity of species and their rates of extinction, distribution, and protection,weblink Science (journal), Science, 344, 6187, 1246752, 10.1126/science.1246752, 15 December 2016, The overarching driver of species extinction is human population growth and increasing per capita consumption., 24876501, JOURNAL, Ceballos, Gerardo, Ehrlich, Paul R., Barnosky, Anthony D., García, Andrés, Pringle, Robert M., Palmer, Todd M., 2015, Accelerated modern human–induced species losses: Entering the sixth mass extinction, Science Advances, 1, 5, e1400253, 10.1126/sciadv.1400253, 26601195, 4640606, 2015SciA....1E0253C, NEWS,weblink How to stop the sixth mass extinction, John D., Sutter, December 12, 2016, CNN, December 19, 2016, JOURNAL, Ceballos, Gerardo, Ehrlich, Paul R, Dirzo, Rodolfo, 23 May 2017, Biological annihilation via the ongoing sixth mass extinction signaled by vertebrate population losses and declines, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, PNAS, 10.1073/pnas.1704949114, Much less frequently mentioned are, however, the ultimate drivers of those immediate causes of biotic destruction, namely, human overpopulation and continued population growth, and overconsumption, especially by the rich. These drivers, all of which trace to the fiction that perpetual growth can occur on a finite planet, are themselves increasing rapidly., 28696295, 5544311, 114, 30, E6089–E6096, By 2050 population growth, along with profligate consumption, could result in oceans containing more plastic than fish by weight. In November 2017, a statement by 15,364 scientists from 184 countries asserted that rapid human population growth is the "primary driver behind many ecological and even societal threats."JOURNAL, Ripple WJ, Wolf C, Newsome TM, Galetti M, Alamgir M, Crist E, Mahmoud MI, Laurance WF, World Scientists' Warning to Humanity: A Second Notice, BioScience, 13 November 2017, 67, 12, 1026–1028, 10.1093/biosci/bix125, African wildlife populations are declining significantly as growing human populations encroach on protected ecosystems, such as the Serengeti.NEWS, Cockburn, Harry, March 29, 2019, Population explosion fuelling rapid reduction of wildlife on African savannah, study shows,weblink The Independent, April 1, 2019, A July 2017 study published in Environmental Research Letters argued that the most significant way individuals could mitigate their own carbon footprint is to have fewer children, followed by living without a vehicle, foregoing air travel, and adopting a plant-based diet.NEWS, Perkins, Sid, July 11, 2017, The best way to reduce your carbon footprint is one the government isn’t telling you about,weblink Science (journal), Science, December 9, 2017,

Population control

(File:India - Chennai - busy T. Nagar market 1 (3059480968).jpg|thumb|India is predicted to overtake China as the world's most populous country by 2022.)Human population control is the practice of intervening to alter the rate of population growth. Historically, human population control has been implemented by limiting a region's birth rate, by voluntary contraception or by government mandate. It has been undertaken as a response to factors including high or increasing levels of poverty, environmental concerns, and religious reasons. The use of abortion in some population control strategies has caused controversy,Some population control programs, such as China's one-child policy, entail the use of forced late-term abortions, sparking domestic anger and international condemnation: WEB,weblink China one-child policy leads to forced abortions, mothers' deaths, Los Angeles Times, June 15, 2012, August 29, 2012, with religious organizations such as the Roman Catholic Church explicitly opposing any intervention in the human reproductive process.WEB,weblink Fighting poverty to build peace, Holy See, Vatican, January 1, 2009, October 24, 2011, The University of Nebraska publication Green Illusions argues that population control to alleviate environmental pressures need not be coercive. It states that "Women who are educated, economically engaged, and in control of their own bodies can enjoy the freedom of bearing children at their own pace, which happens to be a rate that is appropriate for the aggregate ecological endowment of our planet."BOOK, Zehmer, Ozzie, Green lllusions, 2012, University of Nebraska, Lincoln and London, 188,weblink The book Fatal Misconception by Matthew Connelly similarly points to the importance of supporting the rights of women in bringing population levels down over time.BOOK,weblink Fatal Misconception: The Struggle to Control World Population, Connelly, Matthew, 2008, 9780674029835,

Number of humans who have ever lived

{{Further|Paleodemography}}Estimates of the total number of humans who have ever lived range in the order of 100 billion. It is difficult for estimates to be better than rough approximations, as even modern population estimates are fraught with uncertainties on the order of 3% to 5%."It should be noted that even recent demographic data is accurate only from 3 to 5%, although in demography traditionally more digits are indicated than those having a meaning. This is partially due to the ethical difficulty in rounding off numbers that supposedly represent real people, officially counted during a census." Sergei P Kapitza, 'The phenomenological theory of world population growth', Physics-Uspekhi 39(1) 57-71 (1996). Kapitza (1996) cites estimates ranging between 80 and 150 billion.Sergei P Kapitza, 'The phenomenological theory of world population growth', Physics-Uspekhi 39(1) 57-71 (1996), citing K. M. Weiss, Human Biology 56637 (1984) and N. Keyfitz, Applied Mathematical Demography (New York: Wiley, 1977). Haub (1995) prepared another figure, updated in 2002 and 2011; the 2011 figure was approximately 107 billion.JOURNAL, Curtin, Ciara, September 2007, March 1, 2007, August 4, 2008, Fact or Fiction?: Living People Outnumber the Dead, Scientific American, Scientific American, Inc., 297, 3, 126,weblink 10.1038/scientificamerican0907-126, 2007SciAm.297c.126C, Note: text of paper publication slightly different from text of on-line publicationJOURNAL, Haub, Carl, November–December 2002, How Many People Have Ever Lived on Earth?, Population Today, Population Reference Bureau, 30, 8, 3–4,weblink August 4, 2008, WEB, Haub, Carl, October 2011, How Many People Have Ever Lived on Earth?, Population Reference Bureau,weblink April 29, 2013, Haub characterized this figure as an estimate that required "selecting population sizes for different points from antiquity to the present and applying assumed birth rates to each period".Robust population data only exists for the last two or three centuries. Until the late 18th century, few governments had ever performed an accurate census. In many early attempts, such as in Ancient Egypt and the Persian Empire, the focus was on counting merely a subset of the population for purposes of taxation or military service.Kuhrt, A. (1995). The Ancient Near East, c. 3000–330 BCE. Vol. 2. London: Routledge. p. 695. Thus, there is a significant margin of error when estimating ancient global populations.Another critical factor for such an estimate is the question of pre-modern infant mortality rates; these figures are very difficult to estimate for ancient times due to a lack of accurate records. Haub (1995) estimates that around 40% of those who have ever lived did not survive beyond their first birthday. Haub also stated that "life expectancy at birth probably averaged only about ten years for most of human history", which is not to be mistaken for the life expectancy after reaching adulthood. The latter equally depended on period, location and social standing, but calculations identify averages from roughly 30 years upward.

See also

{hide}Columns-list|colwidth=30em| Lists: Historical: {edih}

Notes

References

{{Reflist|30em}}

External links

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