Training Exercise “Seven Days to the River Rhine“| partof = the Cold War| image = Probable Axes of Attack.svg| image_size = 320px| caption = A 1976 map of probable axes of attack for the Warsaw Pact forces into Western Europe| date = at least since 1964| place = Central Europe, Iron Curtain| territory = German unification under East GermanyOccupation of Austria, Denmark, Luxembourg, Belgium, and the Netherlands east of River Rhine to the Warsaw Pact (if attempted)| result = Unknown; never attempted.Signing of the SALT II treaty.If attempted, intended to be a Warsaw Pact victory but with heavy cost of lives

18px) Warsaw Pact

(File:GSSD-LOGO.svg|GSSD-LOGO|18px) GSFG
Soviet Army Central Group of Forces
Soviet Army Northern Group of Forces
Soviet Army Southern Group of Forces

Communist Parties in prospective Soviet Satellites:

{{flagicon|Austria|size=23px}} KPÃ–
{{flagicon|Belgium|size=23px}} KPB/PCB
{{flagicon|Denmark|size=23px}} DKP
{{flagicon|Luxembourg|size=23px}} KPL
{{flagicon|Netherlands|size=23px}} CPN

Communist Parties in prospective Soviet Satellites(9-day extended plan to Lyon):

{{flagicon|France|size=23px}} PCF

NATO

size=23px}}’’’

{{flag|United States|border|size=23px}}
{{flag|United Kingdom|border|size=23px}}
{{flag|France|border|size=23px}}
{{flag|Belgium|border|size=23px}}
{{flag|Canada|border|size=23px}}
{{flag|Denmark|border|size=23px}}
{{flag|West Germany|border|size=23px}}
{{flag|Italy|border|size=23px}}
{{flag|Luxembourg|border|size=23px}}
{{flag|Netherlands|border|size=23px}}
{{flag|Norway|border|size=23px}}
{{flag|Turkey|border|size=23px}}

Soviet Union

size=23px}} Leonid Brezhnev{{flagicon

border

Dmitriy Ustinov{{flagicon>Soviet Union

size=23px}} Nikolai Ogarkov{{flagicon

border

Yuri Zarudin ((:ru:Ð—Ð°Ñ€ÑƒÐ´Ð¸Ð½, Ð®Ñ€Ð¸Ð¹ Ð¤Ñ‘Ð´Ð¾Ñ€Ð¾Ð²Ð¸Ñ‡>ru)){{nowrap

Soviet Union

size=23px}} Gen. Yevgeni F. Ivanovski}}{{flagicon

size=23px}} Todor Zhivkov{{flagicon

size=23px}} Dobri Dzhurov{{flagicon

size=23px}} GustÃ¡v HusÃ¡k{{Flagicon

size=23px}} Martin DzÃºr{{flagicon

size=23px}} Erich Honecker{{Flagicon

size=23px}} Heinz Hoffmann{{flagicon

size=23px}} JÃ¡nos KÃ¡dÃ¡r{{flagicon

size=23px}} Lajos Czinege{{flagicon

size=23px}} Edward Gierek{{flagicon

border

Wojciech Jaruzelski{{Flagicon>Austria

Franz Muhri ((:de:Franz Muhri>de)){{Flagicon

size=23px}} Louis Van Geyt{{flagicon

size=23px}} JÃ¸rgen Jensen (politician)

{{Flagicon>Netherlands

Marcus Bakker{{Flagicon>France|size=23px}} Georges Marchais

United States

Jimmy Carter {{Flagicon>United States

Harold Brown (Secretary of Defense)>Harold Brown{{Flagicon

size=23px}} David C. Jones{{Collapsible list

NATO|size=23px}} SACEUR:

United States|size=23px}} Gen. Alexander Haig(Jan–Jul 1979)

United States

Bernard W. Rogers>B. W. Rogers(Jul 1979–1987)}}{{flagicon|United Kingdom|size=23px}} James Callaghan(Jan–May 1979){{flagicon|United Kingdom|size=23px}} Margaret Thatcher(May 1979–1990){{flagicon|France|size=23px}} Valery Giscard d’Estaing{{flagicon|France|size=23px}} Yvon Bourges{{Flagicon|Belgium|size=23px}} Paul Vanden Boeynants(Jan–Apr 1979){{Flagicon|Belgium|size=23px}} Wilfried Martens(Apr 1979–1981){{Flagicon|Belgium|size=23px}} JosÃ© Desmarets{{flagicon|Canada|size=23px}} Pierre Trudeau(Jan–Jun 1979){{flagicon|Canada|size=23px}} Joe Clark(Jun 1979–1980){{flagicon|Denmark|size=23px}} Anker JÃ¸rgensen{{flagicon|Denmark|size=23px}} Poul SÃ¸gaard{{Flagicon|West Germany|size=23px}} Helmut Schmidt{{Flagicon|West Germany|size=23px}} Hans Apel{{flagicon|Italy|size=23px}} Giulio Andreotti(Jan–Aug 1979){{flagicon|Italy|size=23px}} Francesco Cossiga(Aug 1979–1980){{Flagicon|Italy|size=23px}} Attilio Ruffini{{Flagicon|Luxembourg|size=23px}} Gaston Thorn(Jan–Jul 1979){{Flagicon|Luxembourg|size=23px}} Pierre Werner(Jul 1979–1984){{Flagicon|Luxembourg|border|size=23px}} Ã‰mile Krieps{{Flagicon|Netherlands|size=23px}} Dries van Agt{{Flagicon|Netherlands|size=23px}} Willem Scholten{{Flagicon|Norway|size=23px}} Odvar Nordli{{flagicon|Turkey|size=23px}} BÃ¼lent Ecevit(Jan–Nov 1979){{flagicon|Turkey|size=23px}} SÃ¼leyman Demirel(Nov 1979–1980){{flagicon|Austria|size=23px}} Bruno Kreisky{{Flagicon|Austria|size=23px}} Otto RÃ¶sch| strength1 = | strength2 = | casualties1 = Would be carried out in response to a NATO first strike on Poland. Such a strike was estimated to cause 2 million immediate Polish deaths near the Vistula| casualties2 = If carried out, heavy losses in West Germany| casualties3 = | notes = | casus = Presumed attack by NATO forces on Poland}}File:Rhein-Karte.png|thumb|right|175px|The Rhine RhineSeven Days to the River Rhine () was a top-secret military simulation exercise developed at least since 1964 by the Warsaw Pact. It depicted the Soviet Bloc’s vision of a seven-day nuclear war between NATO and Warsaw Pact forces.WEB, Findlay, Christopher, 2005-11-28, Poland reveals Warsaw Pact war plans,css.ethz.ch/content/specialinterest/gess/cis/center-for-securities-studies/en/services/digital-library/articles/article.html/107840, live,web.archive.org/web/20210709183149/https://css.ethz.ch/content/specialinterest/gess/cis/center-for-securities-studies/en/services/digital-library/articles/article.html/107840, 2021-07-09, 23 December 2014, International Relations And Security Network, ETH Zurich, NEWS, Nicholas, Watt, Nicholas Watt,www.theguardian.com/world/2005/nov/26/russia.poland#article_continue, Poland risks Russia’s wrath with Soviet nuclear attack map, The Guardian, 2005-11-26, 2013-06-14, 2020-04-29,web.archive.org/web/20200429040816/https://www.theguardian.com/world/2005/nov/26/russia.poland#article_continue, live, NEWS, Rennie, David, David Rennie (columnist),www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/poland/1504008/World-War-Three-seen-through-Soviet-eyes.html, World War Three seen through Soviet eyes, Daily Telegraph, 2005-11-26, 2013-06-14, 2019-11-02,web.archive.org/web/20191102112010/https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/poland/1504008/World-War-Three-seen-through-Soviet-eyes.html, live,

Declassification

This possible World War III scenario was released by Polish Defense Minister RadosÅ‚aw Sikorski following the Law and Justice Party’s victories in the 2005 Polish elections along with thousands of Warsaw Pact documents, in order to “draw a line under [the original Polish verb could also be translated as ‘make a break from’] the country’s Communist past”, and “educate the Polish public about the old regime.“WEB,www.rferl.org/content/article/1063249.html, Poland Opens Secret Warsaw Pact Files, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 2005-11-25, 2013-06-14, 2016-06-09,www.rferl.org/content/article/1063249.html," title="web.archive.org/web/20160609180834www.rferl.org/content/article/1063249.html,">web.archive.org/web/20160609180834www.rferl.org/content/article/1063249.html, live, Sikorski stated that documents associated with the former regime would be declassified and published through the Institute of National Remembrance in the coming year.The files released included documents about “Operation Danube”, the 1968 Warsaw Pact invasion of Czechoslovakia in response to the Prague Spring. They also included files on the 1970 Polish protests, and from the martial law era of the 1980s.The Czech RepublicWEB, Samuel, Henry,www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1563692/Soviet-plan-for-WW3-nuclear-attack-unearthed.html, Soviet plan for WW3 nuclear attack unearthed, Daily Telegraph, 2007-09-20, 2013-06-14, 2020-02-01,web.archive.org/web/20200201000709/https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1563692/Soviet-plan-for-WW3-nuclear-attack-unearthed.html, live, and HungaryWEB, Tweedie, Neil,www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/austria/1364037/Vienna-was-top-of-Soviet-nuclear-targets-list.html, Vienna was top of Soviet nuclear targets list, Daily Telegraph, 2001-12-01, 2013-06-14, 2019-11-02,web.archive.org/web/20191102164025/https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/austria/1364037/Vienna-was-top-of-Soviet-nuclear-targets-list.html, live, had declassified related documents in the 1990s. The Polish government declassified some material in this period.WEB,www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/russia/cccp-war-plans.htm, Warsaw Pact War Plans, GlobalSecurity.org, 2020-05-28, 2019-12-31,web.archive.org/web/20191231111711/https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/russia/cccp-war-plans.htm, live, WEB,www.nato.int/docu/review/2001/0104-09.htm, Reassessing the Cold War alliances, Petr, Lunak, 2001, NATO Review, 2020-05-28, 2018-08-24,web.archive.org/web/20180824144312/https://www.nato.int/docu/review/2001/0104-09.htm, live,

Battle outline

The scenario for the war was NATO launching a nuclear attack on Polish and Czechoslovak cities in the Vistula river valley area in a first-strike scenario, which would prevent Warsaw Pact commanders from sending reinforcements to East Germany to forestall a possible NATO invasion of that country. The plan expected that as many as two million Polish civilians would die in such a war and Polish operational strength would be completely destroyed.A Soviet nuclear counter-strike would be launched against West Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, Denmark and North-East Italy.

Nuclear response

Maps associated with the released plan show nuclear strikes in many NATO states, but exclude both France and the United Kingdom. There are several possibilities for this lack of strikes, the most probable being that both France and the United Kingdom are nuclear weapons states, and as such retain nuclear arsenals that could be employed in retaliation for nuclear strikes against their nations.WEB,www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/poland/1504006/Moscows-blueprint-resembles-thrillers-plot.html, Moscow’s blueprint resembles thriller’s plot, 26 November 2005, Daily Telegraph, 2 April 2018, 10 July 2019,web.archive.org/web/20190710114703/https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/poland/1504006/Moscows-blueprint-resembles-thrillers-plot.html, live, The French Force de dissuasion employed a nuclear strategy known as dissuasion du faible au fort (weak-to-strong deterrence); this is considered a “counter-value” strategy, which implies that a nuclear attack on France would be responded to by a strike on Soviet-bloc cities.The Guardian, however, speculates that “France would have escaped attack, possibly because it is not a member of NATO’s integrated structure. Britain, which has always been at the heart of NATO, would also have been spared, suggesting Moscow wanted to stop at the Rhine to avoid overstretching its forces.“In 1966, President Charles de Gaulle withdrew France from NATO’s integrated military command structure. In practical terms, while France remained a NATO member and fully participated in the political instances of the Organization, it was no longer represented on certain committees like the Nuclear Planning Group and the Defence Planning Committee. Foreign forces were removed from French territory and French forces temporarily withdrawn from NATO commands.WEB,www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/declassified_160672.htm?selectedLocale=en, NATO left Paris, but France did not leave NATO, 2019-12-30, 2019-12-31,web.archive.org/web/20191231111711/https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/declassified_160672.htm?selectedLocale=en, live, The 1st French Army, with its headquarters at Strasbourg, on the Franco-German border, was the main field headquarters controlling operations in support of NATO in West Germany, as well as defending France. Although France was not officially part of NATO’s command structure, there was an understanding, formalised by regular joint exercises in West Germany, that France would go to the aid of NATO, should the Warsaw Pact attack. To that end, the Headquarters and two divisions of II (Fr) Corps were permanently stationed in West Germany, with the wartime mission of supporting NATO’s US-led Central Army Group (CENTAG).WEB,www.fireandfury.com/orbats/modcwfrench.pdf?selectedLocale=ee, French Orders of Battle & TO&Es 1980â€“1989 v2.2, R Mark, Davies, FireAndFury.com, 2020-05-28, 2020-04-29,www.fireandfury.com/orbats/modcwfrench.pdf?selectedLocale=ee," title="web.archive.org/web/20200429024827www.fireandfury.com/orbats/modcwfrench.pdf?selectedLocale=ee,">web.archive.org/web/20200429024827www.fireandfury.com/orbats/modcwfrench.pdf?selectedLocale=ee, live, There are many high-value targets in Britain (like RAF Fylingdales, RAF Mildenhall, and RAF Lakenheath) that would then have to be struck in a conventional manner in this plan, though a nuclear strike would be far more effective (and, as the plans show, a preferable option for the Soviet leadership as shown by their strikes in Western Europe). The plan also indicates that USAF fighter-bombers, primarily the long-ranged F-111 Aardvark, would be employed in nuclear strikes, and that they would launch from those British bases.The Soviets planned to use about 7.5 megatons of atomic weaponry in all during such a conflict.

Known targets

The Austrian capital Vienna was to be hit by two 500-kiloton bombs. In Italy, Vicenza, Verona, Padua, and several military bases were to be hit by single 500-kiloton bombs. The Hungarian People’s Army was to capture Vienna.Stuttgart, Munich, and Nuremberg in West Germany were to be destroyed by nuclear weapons and then captured by the Czechoslovaks and Hungarians.In Denmark, the first nuclear targets were Roskilde and Esbjerg. Roskilde, while having no military significance, is the second-largest city on Zealand and located close to the Danish capital Copenhagen (the distance from central Copenhagen to Roskilde is only {{cvt|35|km|disp=or}}). It would also be targeted for its cultural and historical significance to break the morale of the Danish population and army. Esbjerg, the fifth-largest city in the country, would be targeted for its large harbour capable of facilitating delivery of large NATO reinforcements. If there was Danish resistance after the two initial strikes, other targets would be bombed.NEWS, Niels, Lillelund, Niels Lillelund, Jette ElbÃ¦k Maressa, 18 January 2003, Atomplaner mod Danmark under Den Kolde Krig,jyllands-posten.dk/indland/ECE3429175/Atomplaner-mod-Danmark-under-Den-Kolde-Krig/, Nuclear plans against Denmark during the Cold War, da, Jyllands-Posten, 18 July 2019, 22 July 2019,web.archive.org/web/20190722132920/https://jyllands-posten.dk/indland/ECE3429175/Atomplaner-mod-Danmark-under-Den-Kolde-Krig/, live,

Additional plans

The Soviet Union planned to have reached Lyon by day nine and to press on to a final position at the Pyrenees. Czechoslovakia thought it to be too optimistic at the time, and some present-day Western planners believe that such a goal was unrealistic or even unattainable.

In popular culture

In Jack Ryan, the Seven Days to the River Rhine is featured prominently in the third season.

References

General

“World War Three seen through Soviet eyes”, David Rennie, Daily Telegraph, November 26, 2005. Retrieved May 19, 2006
“Poland Opens Secret Warsaw Pact Files ”, Radio Free Europe, 2005, Retrieved March 16, 2009
“Soviet Nuclear Weapons in Hungary 1961-1991”

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Seven Days to the River Rhine

Declassification

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In popular culture

See also

References