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{{Short description|One of the primary theories on peak oil}}{{Redirect|Hubbert peak|the episode of The West Wing television series|The Hubbert Peak}}File:Hubbert world 2004.svg|thumb|right|300px|2004 U.S. government predictions for oil production other than in OPEC and the former Soviet Unionformer Soviet UnionThe Hubbert peak theory says that for any given geographical area, from an individual oil-producing region to the planet as a whole, the rate of petroleum production tends to follow a bell-shaped curve. It is one of the primary theories on peak oil.Choosing a particular curve determines a point of maximum production based on discovery rates, production rates, and cumulative production. Early in the curve (pre-peak), the production rate increases due to the discovery rate and the addition of infrastructure. Late in the curve (post-peak), production declines because of resource depletion.The Hubbert peak theory is based on the observation that the amount of oil under the ground in any region is finite, therefore the rate of discovery which initially increases quickly must reach a maximum and decline. In the US, oil extraction followed the discovery curve after a time lag of 32 to 35 years.Jean Laherrere, "Forecasting production from discovery", ASPO Lisbon May 19–20, 2005 weblinkWEB,weblink Peak Oil: The Looming Energy Crisis, J.R. Wood, Michigan Technological University, 2013-12-27, The theory is named after American geophysicist M. King Hubbert, who created a method of modeling the production curve given an assumed ultimate recovery volume.

Hubbert's peak

"Hubbert's peak" can refer to the peaking of production in a particular area, which has now been observed for many fields and regions.Hubbert's peak was thought to have been achieved in the United States contiguous 48 states (that is, excluding Alaska and Hawaii) in the early 1970s. Oil production peaked at {{convert|10.2|e6oilbbl|e6m3}} per day in 1970 and then declined over the subsequent 35 years in a pattern that closely followed the one predicated by Hubbert in the mid-1950s. However, beginning in the late 20th century, advances in extraction technology, particularly those that led to the extraction of tight oil and unconventional oil resulted in a large increase in U.S. oil production. Thus, establishing a pattern that deviated drastically from the model predicted by Hubbert for the contiguous 48-states as a whole. Production from Wells utilizing these advances extraction techniques, exhibit a rate of decline far greater than traditional means. In November 2017 the United States once again surpassed the 10 million barrel mark for the first time since 1970. NEWS,weblink US oil production tops 10 million barrels a day for first time since 1970, Domm, Patti, 2018-01-31, CNBC, 2018-04-30, Peak oil as a proper noun, or "Hubbert's peak" applied more generally, refers to a predicted event: the peak of the entire planet's oil production. After peak oil, according to the Hubbert Peak Theory, the rate of oil production on Earth would enter a terminal decline. Based on his theory, in a paperNuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels, M.K. Hubbert, Presented before the Spring Meeting of the Southern District, American Petroleum Institute, Plaza Hotel, San Antonio, Texas, March 7–8–9, 1956 WEB,weblink Archived copy, 2014-11-10, dead,weblink" title="web.archive.org/web/20080527233843weblink">weblink 2008-05-27, he presented to the American Petroleum Institute in 1956, Hubbert correctly predicted that production of oil from conventional sources would peak in the continental United States around 1965–1970. Hubbert further predicted a worldwide peak at "about half a century" from publication and approximately 12 gigabarrels (GB) a year in magnitude. In a 1976 TV interviewWEB,weblink 1976 Hubbert Clip, YouTube, 2013-11-03, Hubbert added that the actions of OPEC might flatten the global production curve but this would only delay the peak for perhaps 10 years. The development of new technologies has provided access to large quantities of unconventional resources, and the boost in production has largely discounted Hubbert's prediction.{{Citation needed|date=October 2018}}

Hubbert's theory

Hubbert curve

File:Hubbert curve.svg|thumb|The standard Hubbert curveHubbert curve(File:US Crude Oil Production and Imports.svg|thumb|U.S. Oil Production and Imports 1910 to 2012)In 1956, Hubbert proposed that fossil fuel production in a given region over time would follow a roughly bell-shaped curve without giving a precise formula; he later used the Hubbert curve, the derivative of the logistic curve,Bartlett A.A 1999 ,"An Analysis of U.S. and World Oil Production Patterns Using Hubbert-Style Curves." Mathematical Geology.M. King Hubbert, 1962, "Energy Resources," National Academy of Sciences, Publication 1000-D, p. 57. for estimating future production using past observed discoveries.Hubbert assumed that after fossil fuel reserves (oil reserves, coal reserves, and natural gas reserves) are discovered, production at first increases approximately exponentially, as more extraction commences and more efficient facilities are installed. At some point, a peak output is reached, and production begins declining until it approximates an exponential decline.The Hubbert curve satisfies these constraints. Furthermore, it is symmetrical, with the peak of production reached when half of the fossil fuel that will ultimately be produced has been produced. It also has a single peak.Given past oil discovery and production data, a Hubbert curve that attempts to approximate past discovery data may be constructed and used to provide estimates for future production. In particular, the date of peak oil production or the total amount of oil ultimately produced can be estimated that way. CavalloJOURNAL, Cavallo, Alfred J., Hubbert?s petroleum production model: an evaluation and implications for World Oil Production Forecasts, Natural Resources Research, December 2004, 13, 4, 211–221, 10.1007/s11053-004-0129-2, 2004NRR....13..211C, 18847791, defines the Hubbert curve used to predict the U.S. peak as the derivative of: Q(t) = {Q_{{rm max}}over {1 + ae^{-bt}}}where Qmax is the total resource available (ultimate recovery of crude oil), Q(t) the cumulative production, and a and b are constants. The year of maximum annual production (peak) is: t_{{rm max}} = {1over b}ln left({a} right).so now the cumulative production Q(t) reaches the half of the total available resource: Q(t) = Q_text{max}/2The Hubbert equation assumes that oil production is symmetrical about the peak. Others have used similar but non-symmetrical equations which may provide better a fit to empirical production data.JOURNAL, Malanichev, Alexander, Limits of Technological Efficiency of Shale Oil Production in the USA, Foresight and STI Governance, 30 December 2018, 12, 4, 78–89, {{ProQuest, 2239256388, |doi=10.17323/2500-2597.2018.4.78.89 |doi-access=free }}

Use of multiple curves

{{Expand section|date=June 2008}}The sum of multiple Hubbert curves, a technique not developed by Hubbert himself, may be used in order to model more complicated real life scenarios. When new production methods, namely hydraulic fracturing, were pioneered on the previously unproductive oil-bearing Shale formations, the sudden, dramatic increase in production necessitated a distinct curve. Advances in technologies such as these are limited, but when a paradigm shifting idea impacts production and causes a need for a new curve to be added to the old curve, or the entire curve to be reworked. It should be noted, & it is well documented, that production from shale wells are unlike that of traditional well. A traditional oil well's rate of decline is shallow, & exhibits a slow, predictable rate of decline as the reservoir is drawn down (Drinking of Milkshake). Whereas production from shale wells, assuming successful fracturing, will see its peak production at the moment the well is brought in, with a drastic rate of decline shortly thereafter. However, one revolutionary aspect of these types of production methods are the ability to refracture the well. Production may be brought back up, to near peak levels with a reapplication of the fracturing technology to the subject formation. Once again releasing the hydrocarbons trapped tightly within the shale & allowing them to be drawn to the surface. This process allows the for an outward manipulation of the curve, simply by purposefully neglecting to rework the well until the operator's desired market conditions are present. WEB,weblink The Hubbert curve : its strengths and weaknesses, Laherrère, J.H., Feb 18, 2000, dieoff.org, September 16, 2011,weblink" title="web.archive.org/web/20181009083419weblink">weblink October 9, 2018, dead,

Reliability

Crude oil

(File:Hubbert Upper-Bound Peak 1956.png|thumb|Hubbert's upper-bound prediction for US crude oil production (1956), and actual lower-48 states production through 2016)Hubbert, in his 1956 paper, presented two scenarios for US crude oil production:

• most likely estimate: a logistic curve with a logistic growth rate equal to 6%, an ultimate resource equal to 150 Giga-barrels (Gb) and a peak in 1965. The size of the ultimate resource was taken from a synthesis of estimates by well-known oil geologists and the US Geological Survey, which Hubbert judged to be the most likely case.
• upper-bound estimate: a logistic curve with a logistic growth rate equal to 6% and ultimate resource equal to 200 Giga-barrels and a peak in 1970.

Hubbert's upper-bound estimate, which he regarded as optimistic, accurately predicted that US oil production would peak in 1970, although the actual peak was 17% higher than Hubbert's curve. Production declined, as Hubbert had predicted, and stayed within 10 percent of Hubbert's predicted value from 1974 through 1994; since then, actual production has been significantly greater than the Hubbert curve. The development of new technologies has provided access to large quantities of unconventional resources, and the boost of production has largely discounted Hubbert's prediction.{{Citation needed|date=October 2018}}Hubbert's 1956 production curves depended on geological estimates of ultimate recoverable oil resources, but he was dissatisfied by the uncertainty this introduced, given the various estimates ranging from 110 billion to 590 billion barrels for the US. Starting in his 1962 publication, he made his calculations, including that of ultimate recovery, based only on mathematical analysis of production rates, proved reserves, and new discoveries, independent of any geological estimates of future discoveries. He concluded that the ultimate recoverable oil resource of the contiguous 48 states was 170 billion barrels, with a production peak in 1966 or 1967. He considered that because his model incorporated past technical advances, that any future advances would occur at the same rate, and were also incorporated.M. King Hubbert, 1962, "Energy Resources," National Academy of Sciences, Publication 1000-D, p. 60. Hubbert continued to defend his calculation of 170 billion barrels in his publications of 1965 and 1967, although by 1967 he had moved the peak forward slightly, to 1968 or 1969.JOURNAL, Hubbert, M. King, National Academy of Sciences Report on Energy Resources: REPLY, AAPG Bulletin, 1 October 1965, 49, 10, 1720–1727, 10.1306/A66337C0-16C0-11D7-8645000102C1865D, JOURNAL, Hubbert, M. King, Degree of Advancement of Petroleum Exploration in United States, AAPG Bulletin, 1 November 1967, 51, 11, 2207–2227, 10.1306/5D25C269-16C1-11D7-8645000102C1865D, A post-hoc analysis of peaked oil wells, fields, regions and nations found that Hubbert's model was the "most widely useful" (providing the best fit to the data), though many areas studied had a sharper "peak" than predicted.JOURNAL, Brandt, Adam R., Testing Hubbert, Energy Policy, May 2007, 35, 5, 3074–3088, 10.1016/j.enpol.2006.11.004, 2007EnPol..35.3074B, A 2007 study of oil depletion by the UK Energy Research Centre pointed out that there is no theoretical and no robust practical reason to assume that oil production will follow a logistic curve. Neither is there any reason to assume that the peak will occur when half the ultimate recoverable resource has been produced; and in fact, empirical evidence appears to contradict this idea. An analysis of a 55 post-peak countries found that the average peak was at 25 percent of the ultimate recovery.Steve Sorrell and others, Global Oil Depletion, UK Energy Research Centre, {{ISBN|1-903144-03-5}}.{{page needed|date=January 2021}}

Natural gas

(File:Hubbert US Lower 48 Gas Prediction - 1962.png|thumb|Hubbert's 1962 prediction of US lower 48-state gas production, versus actual production through 2012)Hubbert also predicted that natural gas production would follow a logistic curve similar to that of oil. The graph shows actual gas production in blue compared to his predicted gas production for the United States in red, published in 1962.M. King Hubbert, 1962, "Energy Resources," National Academy of Sciences, Publication 1000-D, pp. 81–83.

Economics

(File:Oil imports.PNG|thumb|300px|Oil imports by country Pre-2006)

Energy return on energy investment

The ratio of energy extracted to the energy expended in the process is often referred to as the Energy Return on Energy Investment (EROI or EROEI). Should the EROEI drops to one, or equivalently the Net energy gain falls to zero, the oil production is no longer a net energy source.There is a difference between a barrel of oil, which is a measure of oil, and a barrel of oil equivalent (BOE), which is a measure of energy. Many sources of energy, such as fission, solar, wind, and coal, are not subject to the same near-term supply restrictions that oil is.{{citation needed|date = May 2017}} Accordingly, even an oil source with an EROEI of 0.5 can be usefully exploited if the energy required to produce that oil comes from a cheap and plentiful energy source. Availability of cheap, but hard to transport, natural gas in some oil fields has led to using natural gas to fuel enhanced oil recovery. Similarly, natural gas in huge amounts is used to power most Athabasca tar sands plants. Cheap natural gas has also led{{citation needed|date = May 2017}} to ethanol fuel produced with a net EROEI of less than 1, although figures in this area are controversial because methods to measure EROEI are in debate.The assumption of inevitable declining volumes of oil and gas produced per unit of effort is contrary to recent experience in the US. In the United States, as of 2017, there has been an ongoing decade-long increase in the productivity of oil and gas drilling in all the major tight oil and gas plays. The US Energy Information Administration reports, for instance, that in the Bakken Shale production area of North Dakota, the volume of oil produced per day of drilling rig time in January 2017 was 4 times the oil volume per day of drilling five years previous, in January 2012, and nearly 10 times the oil volume per day of ten years previous, in January 2007. In the Marcellus gas region of the northeast, The volume of gas produced per day of drilling time in January 2017 was 3 times the gas volume per day of drilling five years previous, in January 2012, and 28 times the gas volume per day of drilling ten years previous, in January 2007.US Energy Information Administration, Drilling productivity report, 15 May 2017, (see “Report data” spreadsheet).

Growth-based economic models

File:World energy consumption 2005-2035 EIA.png|thumb|(World energy consumption]] & predictions, 2005–2035. Source: International Energy Outlook 2011.)Insofar as economic growth is driven by oil consumption growth, post-peak societies must adapt. Hubbert believed:WEB,weblink Exponential Growth as a Transient Phenomenon in Human History, Hubbertpeak.com, 2013-11-03, {{blockquote|Our principal constraints are cultural. During the last two centuries, we have known nothing but exponential growth and in parallel, we have evolved what amounts to an exponential-growth culture, a culture so heavily dependent upon the continuance of exponential growth for its stability that it is incapable of reckoning with problems of non-growth. | M. King Hubbert | "Exponential Growth as a Transient Phenomenon in Human History"}}Some economists describe the problem as uneconomic growth or a false economy. At the political right, Fred Ikle has warned about "conservatives addicted to the Utopia of Perpetual Growth".WEB,weblink Our Perpetual Growth Utopia, Dieoff.org, 2013-11-03,weblink" title="web.archive.org/web/20190428120557weblink">weblink 2019-04-28, dead, Brief oil interruptions in 1973 and 1979 markedly slowed—but did not stop—the growth of world GDP.WEB,weblink The Growth of World Trade and GDP: 1951-2005, IMF

access-date=28 June 2023, Between 1950 and 1984, as the Green Revolution transformed agriculture around the globe, world grain production increased by 250%. The energy for the Green Revolution was provided by fossil fuels in the form of fertilizers (natural gas), pesticides (oil), and hydrocarbon fueled irrigation.WEB,weblink Agriculture - how peak oil could lead to starvation, wolf.readinglitho.co.uk,weblink" title="web.archive.org/web/20070818060558weblink">weblink August 18, 2007, David Pimentel, professor of ecology and agriculture at Cornell University, and Mario Giampietro, senior researcher at the National Research Institute on Food and Nutrition (INRAN), in their 2003 study Food, Land, Population and the U.S. Economy, placed the maximum U.S. population for a sustainable economy at 200 million (actual population approx. 290m in 2003, 329m in 2019). To achieve a sustainable economy world population will have to be reduced by two-thirds, says the study.WEB, Cynic, Aaron,weblink Eating Fossil Fuels, Energybulletin.net, 2003-10-02, 2013-11-03, dead,weblink" title="web.archive.org/web/20070611071544weblink">weblink 2007-06-11, Without population reduction, this study predicts an agricultural crisis beginning in 2020, becoming critical c. 2050. The peaking of global oil along with the decline in regional natural gas production may precipitate this agricultural crisis sooner than generally expected. Dale Allen Pfeiffer claims that coming decades could see spiraling food prices without relief and massive starvation on a global level such as never experienced before.WEB,weblink Policy Reports | Soil Association, www.soilassociation.org,weblink" title="web.archive.org/web/20070928035437weblink">weblink September 28, 2007, WEB,weblink The Oil Drum: Europe | Agriculture Meets Peak Oil: Soil Association Conference, Europe.theoildrum.com, 2013-11-03, Hubbert peaks {{See also|The Limits to Growth}}Although Hubbert's peak theory receives the most attention concerning peak oil production, it has also been applied to other natural resources. Natural gas Doug Reynolds predicted in 2005 that the North American peak would occur in 2007.NEWS, Bill, White,weblink State's consultant says nation is primed for using Alaska gas, December 17, 2005, Anchorage Daily News, dead,weblink" title="web.archive.org/web/20090221153321weblink">weblink February 21, 2009, Bentley predicted a world "decline in conventional gas production from about 2020".JOURNAL, Viewpoint - Global oil & gas depletion: an overview

last=Bentley

volume=30

pages=189–205

url=http://www.oilcrisis.com/bentley/depletionOverview.pdf, 10.1016/S0301-4215(01)00144-6, Coal Although observers believe that peak coal is significantly further out than peak oil, Hubbert studied the specific example of anthracite in the US, a high-grade coal, whose production peaked in the 1920s. Hubbert found that anthracite matches a curve closely.WEB,weblink Home, www.geo.umn.edu,weblink" title="web.archive.org/web/20041031184216weblink">weblink October 31, 2004, Hubbert had recoverable coal reserves worldwide at 2.500 × 1012 metric tons and peaking around 2150 (depending on usage).More recent estimates suggest an earlier peak. Coal: Resources and Future Production (PDF 630KBWEB,weblink Startseite, Energy Watch Group, 2013-11-03, dead,weblink" title="web.archive.org/web/20130911224731weblink">weblink 2013-09-11, ), published on April 5, 2007 by the Energy Watch Group (EWG), which reports to the German Parliament, found that global coal production could peak in as few as 15 years.WEB, Phillips, Ari,weblink Peak coal: sooner than you think, Energybulletin.net, 2007-05-21, 2013-11-03, dead,weblink" title="web.archive.org/web/20080522155229weblink">weblink 2008-05-22, Reporting on this, Richard Heinberg also notes that the date of peak annual energetic extraction from coal is likely to come earlier than the date of peak in quantity of coal (tons per year) extracted as the most energy-dense types of coal have been mined most extensively.WEB,weblink Museletter, Richard Heinberg, 2009-12-01, 2013-11-03, A second study,The Future of Coal by B. Kavalov and S. D. Peteves of the Institute for Energy (IFE), prepared for the European Commission Joint Research Centre, reaches similar conclusions and states that "coal might not be so abundant, widely available and reliable as an energy source in the future".Work by David Rutledge of Caltech predicts that the total world coal production will amount to only about 450 gigatonnes."Coal: Bleak outlook for the black stuff", by David Strahan, New Scientist, January 19, 2008, pp. 38–41. This implies that coal is running out faster than usually assumed. Fissionable materials In a paper in 1956,WEB,weblink Nuclear Energy And The Fossil Fuels, M. King Hubbert, June 1956, Shell Development Company, 2013-12-27, dead,weblink" title="web.archive.org/web/20080527233843weblink">weblink 2008-05-27, after a review of US fissionable reserves, Hubbert notes of nuclear power:{{cquote|There is promise, however, provided mankind can solve its international problems and not destroy itself with nuclear weapons, and provided world population (which is now expanding at such a rate as to double in less than a century) can somehow be brought under control, that we may, at last, have found an energy supply adequate for our needs for at least the next few centuries of the "foreseeable future."}}As of 2015, the identified resources of uranium are sufficient to provide more than 135 years of supply at the present rate of consumption.BOOK, Nuclear Energy Agency, NEA, IAEA, 2016, Uranium 2016 – Resources, Production and Demand,weblink 978-92-64-26844-9, OECD, OECD Publishing, 10.1787/uranium-2016-en, Technologies such as the thorium fuel cycle, reprocessing and fast breeders can, in theory, extend the life of uranium reserves from hundreds to thousands of years.Caltech physics professor David Goodstein stated in 2004WEB, Jones, Tony, Professor Goodstein discusses lowering oil reserves,weblink Australian Broadcasting Corporation, 14 April 2013, 23 November 2004,weblink" title="web.archive.org/web/20130509063107weblink">weblink 2013-05-09, dead, that{{cquote|... you would have to build 10,000 of the largest power plants that are feasible by engineering standards in order to replace the 10 terawatts of fossil fuel we're burning today ... that's a staggering amount and if you did that, the known reserves of uranium would last for 10 to 20 years at that burn rate. So, it's at best a bridging technology ... You can use the rest of the uranium to breed plutonium 239 then we'd have at least 100 times as much fuel to use. But that means you're making plutonium, which is an extremely dangerous thing to do in the dangerous world that we live in.}} Helium (File:US Helium Production and Storage 1940-2014.png|thumb|Helium production and storage in the United States, 1940–2014 (data from USGS))Almost all helium on Earth is a result of radioactive decay of uranium and thorium. Helium is extracted by fractional distillation from natural gas, which contains up to 7% helium. The world's largest helium-rich natural gas fields are found in the United States, especially in the Hugoton and nearby gas fields in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. The extracted helium is stored underground in the National Helium Reserve near Amarillo, Texas, the self-proclaimed "Helium Capital of the World". Helium production is expected to decline along with natural gas production in these areas.Helium, which is the second-lightest chemical element, will rise to the upper layers of Earth's atmosphere, where it can forever break free from Earth's gravitational attraction.JOURNAL, Helium in the Terrestrial Atmosphere, Kockarts, G.

issue = 6, 1973SSRv...14..723K, 1973, 723ff, Space Science Reviews, 10.1007/BF00224775, 120152603, Approximately 1,600 tons of helium are lost per year as a result of atmospheric escape mechanisms.WEB,weblink Earth Loses 50,000 Tonnes of Mass Every Year, SciTech Daily, 5 February 2012, Transition metals Hubbert applied his theory to "rock containing an abnormally high concentration of a given metal"WEB,weblink Exponential Growth as a Transient Phenomenon in Human History, Hubbertpeak.com, 2013-11-03, 2013-07-12,weblink" title="web.archive.org/web/20130712115025weblink">weblink dead, and reasoned that the peak production for metals such as copper, tin, lead, zinc and others would occur in the time frame of decades and iron in the time frame of two centuries like coal. The price of copper rose 500% between 2003 and 2007WEB,weblink Copper, Daniel L. Edelstein, U.S. Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries, January 2008, 2013-12-27, and was attributed by some{{who|date=December 2013}} to peak copper.WEB ,weblink , Peak copper? , Salon , Andrew Leonard , 2006-03-02 , 2008-03-23 , dead ,weblink" title="web.archive.org/web/20080307042349weblink">weblink , 2008-03-07 , WEB,weblink Peak Copper Means Peak Silver, News.silverseek.com, 2013-11-03, dead,weblink" title="web.archive.org/web/20131104020042weblink">weblink 2013-11-04, Copper prices later fell, along with many other commodities and stock prices, as demand shrank from fear of a global recession.WEB,weblink Commodities – Demand fears hit oil, metals prices, Uk.reuters.com, 2009-01-29, 2013-11-03, Lithium availability is a concern for a fleet of Li-ion battery using cars but a paper published in 1996 estimated that world reserves are adequate for at least 50 years.JOURNAL, Will, Fritz G., Impact of lithium abundance and cost on electric vehicle battery applications, Journal of Power Sources, November 1996, 63, 1, 23–26, 10.1016/S0378-7753(96)02437-8, 1996JPS....63...23W, {{INIST, 2530187, }} A similar predictionWEB,weblink Department for Transport, Dft.gov.uk, 2013-11-03, for platinum use in fuel cells notes that the metal could be easily recycled. Precious metals In 2009, Aaron Regent president of the Canadian gold giant Barrick Gold said that global output has been falling by roughly one million ounces a year since the start of the decade. The total global mine supply has dropped by 10 percent as ore quality erodes, implying that the roaring bull market of the last eight years may have further to run. "There is a strong case to be made that we are already at 'peak gold'," he told The Daily Telegraph at the RBC's annual gold conference in London. "Production peaked around 2000 and it has been in decline ever since, and we forecast that decline to continue. It is increasingly difficult to find ore," he said.WEB,weblink Barrick shuts hedge book as world gold supply runs out, 11 November 2009, Telegraph, 2013-11-03, Ore grades have fallen from around 12 grams per tonne in 1950 to nearer 3 grams in the US, Canada, and Australia. South Africa's output has halved since peaking in 1970. Output fell a further 14 percent in South Africa in 2008 as companies were forced to dig ever deeper – at greater cost – to replace depleted reserves.World mined gold production has peaked four times since 1900: in 1912, 1940, 1971, and 2001, each peak being higher than previous peaks. The latest peak was in 2001 when production reached 2,600 metric tons, then declined for several years.Thomas Chaise, World gold production 2010, 13 May 2010. Production started to increase again in 2009, spurred by high gold prices, and achieved record new highs each year in 2012, 2013, and 2014, when production reached 2,990 tonnes.US Geological Survey, Gold, Mineral commodity summaries, Jan. 2016. Phosphorus Phosphorus supplies are essential to farming and depletion of reserves is estimated at somewhere from 60 to 130 years.WEB,weblink APDA - Home, www.apda.pt,weblink" title="web.archive.org/web/20061006120520weblink">weblink October 6, 2006, According to a 2008 study, the total reserves of phosphorus are estimated to be approximately 3,200 MT, with peak production at 28 MT/year in 2034.WEB, White, Stuart, Cordell, Dana, Dana Cordell, 2008, Peak Phosphorus: the sequel to Peak Oil,weblink 2009-12-11, Global Phosphorus Research Initiative (GPRI), Individual countries' supplies vary widely; without a recycling initiative America's supplyWEB,weblink Phosphate Rock, Stephen M. Jasinski, U.S. Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries, January 2006, 2013-12-27, is estimated around 30 years.WEB,weblink Closing the Loop on Phosphorus, Ecological Sanitation Research Programme, Stockholm Environment Institute, May 2008, 2013-12-27, dead,weblink" title="web.archive.org/web/20060805112847weblink">weblink 2006-08-05, Ecological Sanitation Research Programme, Phosphorus supplies affect agricultural output which in turn limits alternative fuels such as biodiesel and ethanol. Its increasing price and scarcity (the global price of rock phosphate rose 8-fold in the 2 years to mid-2008) could change global agricultural patterns. Lands, perceived as marginal because of remoteness, but with very high phosphorus content, such as the Gran ChacoNEWS , A postcard from the central Chaco , Don Nicol , 2009-01-23 ,weblink , alluvial sandy soils have phosphorus levels of up to 200–300 ppm , dead ,weblink" title="web.archive.org/web/20090226104329weblink">weblink , 2009-02-26 , may get more agricultural development, while other farming areas, where nutrients are a constraint, may drop below the line of profitability. Renewable resources Wood Unlike fossil resources, forests keep growing, thus the Hubbert peak theory does not apply. There had been wood shortages in the past, called Holznot in German-speaking regions, but no global peak wood yet, despite the early 2021 "Lumber Crisis". Besides, deforestation may cause other problems, like erosion and drought by ending forests' Biotic pump effect. Water Hubbert's original analysis did not apply to renewable resources. However, over-exploitation often results in a Hubbert peak nonetheless. A modified Hubbert curve applies to any resource that can be harvested faster than it can be replaced.WEB ,weblink , The World's Water 2008–2009, Ch 1. , Pacific Institute , Meena Palaniappan and Peter H. Gleick , 2008 , 2009-01-31 , dead ,weblink" title="web.archive.org/web/20090320104604weblink">weblink , 2009-03-20 , For example, a reserve such as the Ogallala Aquifer can be mined at a rate that far exceeds replenishment. This turns much of the world's underground waterWEB,weblink World?s largest acquifer going dry, www.uswaternews.com,weblink" title="web.archive.org/web/20060913031104weblink">weblink September 13, 2006, and lakesWEB,weblink April 7, 2005: Disappearing Lakes, Shrinking Seas - DATA, www.earth-policy.org,weblink" title="web.archive.org/web/20060903213215weblink">weblink September 3, 2006, into finite resources with peak usage debates similar to oil. These debates usually center around agriculture and suburban water usage but generation of electricitweblink {{dead link|date=November 2013}} from nuclear energy or coal and tar sands mining mentioned above is also water resource intensive. The term fossil water is sometimes used to describe aquifers whose water is not being recharged. Fishing At least one researcher has attempted to perform Hubbert linearization (Hubbert curve) on the whaling industry, as well as charting the transparently dependent price of caviar on sturgeon depletion.WEB,weblink How General is the Hubbert Curve?, Aspoitalia.net, 2013-11-03, The Atlantic northwest cod fishery was a renewable resource, but the numbers of fish taken exceeded the fish's rate of recovery. The end of the cod fishery does match the exponential drop of the Hubbert bell curve. Another example is the cod of the North Sea.WEB,weblink Laherrere: Multi-Hubbert Modeling, Hubbertpeak.com, 2013-11-03, Air/oxygen Half the world's oxygen is produced by phytoplankton. The plankton was once thought to have dropped by 40% since the 1950s.WEB,weblink Plankton, base of ocean food web, in big decline, NBC News, 2010-07-28, 2013-11-03, However, the authors reanalyzed their data with better calibrations and found plankton abundance dropped globally by only a few percent over this time interval (Boyce et al. 2014) Criticisms of peak oil Economist Michael LynchWEB,weblink Energyseer, Strategic Energy & Economic Research Inc., Seer, Energyseer.com, 2013-11-03, argues that the theory behind the Hubbert curve is simplistic and relies on an overly Malthusian point of view.WEB,weblink The New Pessimism about Petroleum Resources: Debunking the Hubbert Model (and Hubbert Modelers), Michael C. Lynch, Strategic Energy & Economic Research, Inc., 2013-12-27, Lynch claims that Campbell's predictions for world oil production are strongly biased towards underestimates, and that Campbell has repeatedly pushed back the date.WEB,weblink Michael Lynch Hubbert Peak of Oil Production, Hubbertpeak.com, 2013-11-03, BOOK, Oil Crisis, Campbell, CJ, 2005, 0-906522-39-0, 90, Multi-Science Pub. Co., Brentwood, Essex, England, Leonardo Maugeri, vice president of the Italian energy company Eni, argues that nearly all of peak estimates do not take into account unconventional oil even though the availability of these resources is significant and the costs of extraction and processing, while still very high, are falling because of improved technology. He also notes that the recovery rate from existing world oil fields has increased from about 22% in 1980 to 35% today because of new technology and predicts this trend will continue. The ratio between proven oil reserves and current production has constantly improved, passing from 20 years in 1948 to 35 years in 1972 and reaching about 40 years in 2003.JOURNAL, Maugeri, L., 2004,weblink Oil: Never Cry Wolf—Why the Petroleum Age Is Far from over, Science (journal), Science, 1114–15, 10.1126/science.1096427, 304, 15155935, 5674, 6240405, These improvements occurred even with low investment in new exploration and upgrading technology because of the low oil prices during the last 20 years. However, Maugeri feels that encouraging more exploration will require relatively high oil prices.NEWS,weblinkweblink" title="web.archive.org/web/20070820184304weblink">weblink dead, August 20, 2007, Forbes, July 24, 2006, Oil, Oil Everywhere, Edward Luttwak, an economist and historian, claims that unrest in countries such as Russia, Iran and Iraq has led to a massive underestimate of oil reserves.WEB,weblink The truth about global oil supply, Thefirstpost.co.uk, 2013-11-03, dead,weblink" title="web.archive.org/web/20070926221620weblink">weblink 2007-09-26, The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO) responds by claiming neither Russia nor Iran are troubled by unrest currently, but Iraq is.WEB,weblink ASPO – The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, 26 September 2005, Peakoil.net, 2013-11-03, Cambridge Energy Research Associates authored a report that is critical of Hubbert-influenced predictions:WEB,weblink Why the "Peak Oil" Theory Falls Down -- Myths, Legends, and the Future of Oil Resources - peak oil, upstream, oil production, oil supply, Peter M. Jackson, Yergin Market, Research, Size, Share, Trends, Analysis, Demand, Sales, CERA, e-Profile, energy, Yergin, Prize, oil, natural gas, petroleum, electric power, consulting, retail, research, commanding, heights, globalization, cera.ecnext.com,weblink" title="web.archive.org/web/20061206034220weblink">weblink December 6, 2006, {{cquote|Despite his valuable contribution, M. King Hubbert's methodology falls down because it does not consider likely resource growth, application of new technology, basic commercial factors, or the impact of geopolitics on production. His approach does not work in all cases-including on the United States itself-and cannot reliably model a global production outlook. Put more simply, the case for the imminent peak is flawed. As it is, production in 2005 in the Lower 48 in the United States was 66 percent higher than Hubbert projected.}}CERA does not believe there will be an endless abundance of oil, but instead believes that global production will eventually follow an "undulating plateau" for one or more decades before declining slowly,WEB, Valentine, Katie,weblink CERA says peak oil theory is faulty, Energybulletin.net, 2006-11-14, 2013-11-03,weblink" title="web.archive.org/web/20061128183759weblink">weblink 2006-11-28, dead, and that production will reach 40 Mb/d by 2015.WEB, Valentine, Katie,weblink CERA's report is over-optimistic, Energybulletin.net, 2006-08-10, 2013-11-03,weblink" title="web.archive.org/web/20120212203311weblink">weblink 2012-02-12, dead, Alfred J. Cavallo, while predicting a conventional oil supply shortage by no later than 2015, does not think Hubbert's peak is the correct theory to apply to world production.WEB, Valentine, Katie,weblink Oil: Caveat empty, Energybulletin.net, 2005-05-24, 2013-11-03,weblink" title="web.archive.org/web/20080603041810weblink">weblink 2008-06-03, dead, Criticisms of peak element scenarios Although M. King Hubbert himself made major distinctions between decline in petroleum production versus depletion (or relative lack of it) for elements such as fissionable uranium and thorium,WEB, Whipple, Tom,weblinkweblink" title="web.archive.org/web/20080811001036weblink">weblink dead, 2008-08-11, Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels, Energybulletin.net, 2006-03-08, 2013-11-03, some others have predicted peaks like peak uranium and peak phosphorus soon on the basis of published reserve figures compared to present and future production. According to some economists, though, the amount of proved reserves inventoried at a time may be considered "a poor indicator of the total future supply of a mineral resource."James D. Gwartney, Richard L. Stroup, Russell S. Sobel, David MacPherson. Economics: Private and Public Choice, 12th Edition. South-Western Cengage Learning, p. 730. extract, accessed 5-20-2012As some illustrations, tin, copper, iron, lead, and zinc all had both production from 1950 to 2000 and reserves in 2000 much exceed world reserves in 1950, which would be impossible except for how "proved reserves are like an inventory of cars to an auto dealer" at a time, having little relationship to the actual total affordable to extract in the future. In the example of peak phosphorus, additional concentrations exist intermediate between 71,000 Mt of identified reserves (USGS)WEB,weblink Phosphate Rock, Stephen M. Jasinski, U.S. Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries, January 2012, 2013-12-27, and the approximately 30,000,000,000 Mt of other phosphorus in Earth's crust, with the average rock being 0.1% phosphorus, so showing decline in human phosphorus production will occur soon would require far more than comparing the former figure to the 190 Mt/year of phosphorus extracted in mines (2011 figure).American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2007, abstract #V33A-1161. Mass and Composition of the Continental CrustGreenwood, N. N.; & Earnshaw, A. (1997). Chemistry of the Elements (2nd Edn.), Oxford:Butterworth-Heinemann. {{ISBN|0-7506-3365-4}}. See also {{div col}} Abiogenic petroleum origin Decline curve analysis Fischer–Tropsch process Food security Hirsch report on peak oil Kuznets curve Limits to Growth Low-carbon economy Olduvai theory Peak wheat Reserves-to-production ratio Sustainable agriculture (Transport energy futures: long-term oil supply trends and projections) {{div col end}} Notes {{Reflist|30em}} References "Feature on United States oil production." (November, 2002) weblink" title="web.archive.org/web/20050911141056weblink">ASPO Newsletter 23. Greene, D.L. & J.L. Hopson. (2003). weblink" title="web.archive.org/web/20060929180722weblink">Running Out of and Into Oil: Analyzing Global Depletion and Transition Through 2050 ORNL/TM-2003/259, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, October Economists Challenge Causal Link Between Oil Shocks And Recessions (August 30, 2004). Middle East Economic Survey VOL. XLVII No 35 Hubbert, M.K. (1982). Techniques of Prediction as Applied to Production of Oil and Gas, US Department of Commerce, NBS Special Publication 631, May 1982 {{Peak oil}}{{Shell oil}}