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{{Short description|Election for the House of Assembly in the 51st Tasmanian Parliament}}{{Use dmy dates|date=May 2021}}{{Use Australian English|date=March 2024}}{{Not to be confused with|2024 Tasmanian Legislative Council periodic election}}

factoids

1.2)Image = Jeremy-Rockliff.jpgcWidth = 110oTop = 0Location = center}}| leader1 = Jeremy Rockliff| party1 = Liberal Party of Australia (Tasmanian Division)| leader_since1 = 8 April 2022Division of Braddon (state)>Braddon| last_election1 = 13 seats, 48.7%In May 2023 Liberal MHAs Lara Alexander (Division of Bass (state)) and John Tucker (Tasmanian politician)>John Tucker (Division of Lyons (state)) resigned from the party and left the government to sit on the Crossbencher>crossbench as Independent politician. They agreed to provide the government with confidence and supply.HTTPS://WWW.ABC.NET.AU/NEWS/2023-05-20/TASMANIA-TUCKER-ALEXANDER-ROCKLIFF-SHOW-OF-UNITY/102372468AUTHOR=ADAM HOLMESWORK=ABC NEWS, }}| seats_needed1 = {{increase}} 7| seats1 = 14| seat_change1 = {{increase}} 3| popular_vote1 = 127,837| percentage1 = 36.7%| swing1 = {{decrease}} 12.1Image = Rebecca White in Hobart (April 2021) (cropped) 2.jpgcWidth = 110oTop = 10Location = center}}| leader2 = Rebecca White7 July 2021}}| party2 = Australian Labor Party (Tasmanian Branch)Division of Lyons (state)>Lyons| last_election2 = 9 seats, 28.2%{{plainlist|

• {{Further|David O’ByrneSexual harassment allegations and subsequent removal from the Parliamentary Labor Party{{!{edih}David O’Byrne misconduct allegations}}
• Labor Party leader David O’Byrne resigned his position two months after the 2021 state election following misconduct allegations. A month after the allegations were made O’Byrne sat on the crossbench as an Independent Labor MHA.}}}}| seats_needed2 = {{increase}} 10| seats2 = 10| seat_change2 = {{increase}} 2| popular_vote2 = 101,113| percentage2 = 29.0%| swing2 = {{increase}} 0.8

Image = Rosalie Woodruff in 2020.jpgcWidth = 110oTop = 15Location = center}}| leader4 = Rosalie Woodruff| leader_since4 = 13 July 2023| party4 = Tasmanian GreensDivision of Franklin (state)>Franklin| last_election4 = 2 seats, 12.4%| seats_before4 = 2| seats_needed4 = {{increase}} 16| seats4 = 5| seat_change4 = {{increase}} 3| popular_vote4 = 48,430| percentage4 = 13.9%| swing4 = {{increase}} 1.5Lambie 2017|150x150px)| leader5 = Jacqui Lambie| leader_since5 = 14 May 2015| party5 = Jacqui Lambie NetworkDid not stand{{efn>name=lambieAustralian Senate>Senate as a senator from Tasmania.}}| last_election5 = Did not contest| seats_before5 = 0| seats_needed5 = {{increase}} 18| seats5 = 3| seat_change5 = {{increase}} 3| popular_vote5 = 23,260| percentage5 = 6.7%| swing5 = {{increase}} 6.7| map_image = 2024 Tasmanian state election - Results.svg| map_size = 350px| map_caption = Results of the electionPremier of Tasmania>Premier| before_election = Jeremy Rockliff| before_party = Liberal Party of Australia (Tasmanian Division)| after_election = Jeremy Rockliff| after_party = Liberal Party of Australia (Tasmanian Division)}}The 2024 Tasmanian state election was held on 23 March 2024 to elect all 35 members to the House of Assembly.The House of Assembly uses the proportional Hare-Clark system of voting, with the 35 members elected from five seven-member constituencies. The Assembly’s size was increased from 25 to 35 seats at this election, under the provisions of the Expansion of House of Assembly Act 2022, assented to in December 2022.WEB,www.legislation.tas.gov.au/view/html/inforce/2023-08-16/act-2022-040, Expansion of House of Assembly Act 2022, legislation.tas.gov.au, WEB,www.premier.tas.gov.au/site_resources_2015/additional_releases/restoring-the-size-of-parliament, Restoring the size of Parliament, The Department of Premier and Cabinet, 9 August 2022, 29 April 2023, Rockliff, Jeremy, 29 April 2023,web.archive.org/web/20230429051115/https://www.premier.tas.gov.au/site_resources_2015/additional_releases/restoring-the-size-of-parliament, live, The election was conducted by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission. Elections for the 15-seat single-member district upper house, known as the Legislative Council, which use full-preference instant-runoff voting, are staggered each year and conducted separately from lower house state elections.The Liberal government, led by Premier Jeremy Rockliff, and the Labor opposition, led by Rebecca White, both attempted to win majority government. The Greens and the Jacqui Lambie Network also contested the election, as well as several independents and other minor parties.The election resulted in a hung parliament, with the Liberal Party remaining the largest party by both vote share and seat total; winning 14 seats. Labor and the Greens won 10 and five seats respectively, with both parties experiencing only a small increase in their respective vote percentages, despite a large swing against the Liberal Party. The majority of the swing went to independents and the Jacqui Lambie Network, who won three seats in its first state election. Both major parties fell short of a majority, with the Liberals and Labor requiring four and eight seats respectively from the crossbench to form government.WEB,www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/apr/06/make-up-of-tasmanian-parliament-finally-settled-as-anti-politician-independent-takes-last-seat, Make-up of Tasmanian parliament finally settled as ‘anti-politician’ independent takes last seat, The Guardian, 6 April 2024, The day after the election, Labor conceded and its leader Rebecca White stated the party would not seek to negotiate with other MPs to form a government, triggering a leadership election.WEB, Holmes, Adam, Tasmanian Labor concedes it has lost the state election, party leadership position becomes vacant,www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-24/labor-concede-tasmanian-election-rebecca-white-leader/103625422, ABC News, 24 March 2024, 24 March 2024, On 10 April, the Liberal Party and Jacqui Lambie Network announced an agreement had been reached for the latter to provide confidence and supply to the government.WEB,www.abc.net.au/news/2024-04-10/jln-agreement-with-tasmanian-liberals-winter-labor-leader/103689036, Jacqui Lambie Network signs deal with Liberals, as Rockliff announces ministries and Labor picks Winter to lead, ABC News, 10 April 2024, Adam Langenberg, The second Rockliff ministry was sworn in the following day with Independent MP David O’Byrne providing written assurance of confidence and supply, giving the Liberal party the numbers required to form government.WEB,pulsetasmania.com.au/news/newest-tasmanian-liberal-government-officially-sworn-in-at-government-house/, Newest Tasmanian Liberal Government officially sworn in at Government House ceremony, Pulse Tasmania, 11 April 2024, WEB,www.aap.com.au/news/tasmanias-liberals-formally-secure-minority-support/, Final minority Liberal government deal not yet signed, Australian Associated Press, 12 April 2024, Ethan James, Both O’Byrne and fellow independent Kristie Johnston signed confidence and supply agreements with the government, giving it 19 of the 35 votes on the floor of the parliament.WEB,amp.abc.net.au/article/103762394, Premier Jeremy Rockliff seals deals with key independents to prop up Tasmanian Liberal government, ABC News, 24 April 2024, Adam Holmes,

Date

Under section 23 of the Constitution Act 1934, the House of Assembly was to expire four years from the return of the writs for its election, which took place on 1 May 2021.WEB,www.electoral.tas.gov.au/pages/HouseOfAssembly/Election%20Reports/2007-2010ParlReport/2007-2010BlueBook.pdf, Parliamentary Elections, 2007–2010, Tasmanian Electoral Commission, 1 May 2021, 20 March 2012,www.electoral.tas.gov.au/pages/HouseOfAssembly/Election%20Reports/2007-2010ParlReport/2007-2010BlueBook.pdf," title="web.archive.org/web/20120320162610www.electoral.tas.gov.au/pages/HouseOfAssembly/Election%20Reports/2007-2010ParlReport/2007-2010BlueBook.pdf,">web.archive.org/web/20120320162610www.electoral.tas.gov.au/pages/HouseOfAssembly/Election%20Reports/2007-2010ParlReport/2007-2010BlueBook.pdf, live, The Governor must issue writs of election between five and ten days thereafter.Electoral Act 2004, section 63 {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160304084826www.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/tas/consol_act/ea2004103/s63.html |date=4 March 2016 }}. Nominations must close on a date seven to twenty-one days after the issuance of the writ,Electoral Act 2004, section 69 {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160304114723www.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/tas/consol_act/ea2004103/s69.html |date=4 March 2016 }}. and polling day must be a Saturday between 22 and 30 days after nominations close.Electoral Act 2004, section 70 .In May 2023, Premier Jeremy Rockliff ruled out holding an early election, in contrast to his predecessor (Peter Gutwein), who called the last state election a year early.NEWS,www.themercury.com.au/news/tasmania/tasmanian-premier-jeremy-rockliff-rules-out-early-election-as-government-teeters/news-story/0887d6cf0b139a431b189ad9c38c8e28, Soldiering on: Premier rules out early election, Mercury, subscription, However on 14 February 2024, Rockliff visited with Governor Barbara Baker to request that an election be called a year early after the Liberal government was forced into a minority, a request which was accepted. It was the second consecutive occasion the Premier of Tasmania called a snap election after Gutwein called the previous state election a year early for a similar reason.

Key dates

Important dates in relation to the election are:WEB,www.tec.tas.gov.au/house-of-assembly/elections-2024/index.html, Election calendar 2024, tec.tas.gov.au,web.archive.org/web/20240214233442/https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/house-of-assembly/elections-2024/index.html, 14 February 2024, dead,

• Wednesday 21 February: Issue of the writs, close of rolls and opening of candidate nominations
• Thursday 29 February: Candidate nominations close
• Friday 1 March: Announcement of nominations in ballot paper order
• Monday 4 March: Early voting opens
• Friday 15 March: Postal voting applications close
• Wednesday 20 March: The People’s Forum (Rockliff v White) broadcast on Sky News Australia
• Saturday 23 March: Polling day
• Tuesday 2 April: Final postal votes are received and preferences begin to be distributed

The TEC estimates the following dates for counting progress:WEB,app4.vision6.com.au/em/message/email/view.php?id=1470828&a=58639&k=X8RVz0IzeGb3QmgvTtLqhtMk2GxbD7N2O6vZt3YSFmM, Counting continues after record early voting turnout,

• Saturday 6 April: Counting ends
• Wednesday 10 April: Final results declared

Background

{{See also|2021 Tasmanian state election}}

Previous election

After the snap 2021 election, the Liberal Party successfully won a majority of seats in the Tasmanian House of Assembly.NEWS, Humphries, Alexandra, Peter Gutwein welcomes third consecutive election win for Tasmanian Liberals,www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-13/peter-gutwein-speaks-after-historic-relection/100136330, 14 May 2021, ABC News (Australia), ABC News, 13 May 2021, 13 May 2021,web.archive.org/web/20210513161025/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-13/peter-gutwein-speaks-after-historic-relection/100136330, live, A Liberal MP for Braddon, Adam Brooks, resigned on 14 May 2021 after being charged with firearms offences by Queensland law enforcement. These offences were unauthorised possession of a Category H weapon, unauthorised possession of explosives, and dealing with identity documents. Premier Peter Gutwein said that “I made the decision that under the circumstances of both his mental health and in terms of the fact that he’s now facing these new charges, that he won’t take his seat in parliament.” Greens leader Cassy O’Connor said that “there are now very serious questions to answer about whether or not he was ever considered a legitimate candidate by the Liberal Party”, given he resigned “the day the polls [were] declared”. Prior claims from women were made before the 2021 election, saying they were catfished by Brooks under the alias “Terry Brooks”.NEWS, Humphries, Alexandra, Fisher, Rachel, Dunlevie, James, Tasmanian Liberal Adam Brooks charged by police over firearms offences, resigns from Parliament,www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-14/tasmanian-liberal-adam-brooks-braddon-future/100139460, 14 May 2021, ABC News, 14 May 2021, 14 May 2021,web.archive.org/web/20210514002027/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-14/tasmanian-liberal-adam-brooks-braddon-future/100139460, live, Despite the resignation, the Liberal Party’s numbers in the House of Assembly were unchanged, due to the replacing member being a member of the party.{{Multiple image| width = 120| image1 = DAVID O’BYRNE.jpg| image2 = Rebecca White in Hobart (April 2021) (cropped).jpg| footer = David O’Byrne (left) served as Labor leader for 22 days, resigning over sexual harassment allegations. His predecessor as leader, Rebecca White (right) returned to the leadership role after O’Byrne’s resignation.}}Rebecca White resigned as Labor leader on 15 May 2021, endorsing shadow treasurer David O’Byrne to replace her.NEWS, Langenberg, Adam, Rebecca White stands down as Tasmanian Labor leader, endorses David O’Byrne as successor,www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-15/tas-rebecca-white-will-not-recontest-labor-leadership/100141700, 15 May 2021, ABC News (Australia), ABC News, 15 May 2021, 15 May 2021,web.archive.org/web/20210515042457/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-15/tas-rebecca-white-will-not-recontest-labor-leadership/100141700, live, NEWS, Rebecca White stands aside as Tasmania’s Labor leader,www.skynews.com.au/details/_6254302839001, 15 May 2021, Sky News Australia, 15 May 2021, 15 May 2021,web.archive.org/web/20210515054017/https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6254302839001, live, On 15 June 2021, it was announced that O’Byrne had been elected as leader of the Tasmanian Labor Party against opponent Shane Broad, winning 72% of the members’ vote and 75% of party delegates.NEWS, Langenberg, Adam, David O’Byrne elected leader of Labor Party in Tasmania,www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-15/david-o-byrne-takes-labor-leadership-tasmania/100217724, 16 June 2021, ABC News (Australia), ABC News, 15 June 2021, 16 June 2021,web.archive.org/web/20210616070135/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-15/david-o-byrne-takes-labor-leadership-tasmania/100217724, live, After allegations of him sexting and kissing a woman without her consent were revealed, David O’Byrne stood aside from his role as leader of the Labor Party for the length of an investigation on 30 June 2021, with Anita Dow acting as leader during the interim.NEWS, Mobbs, Melissa, David O’Byrne stands aside as Tasmanian Labor leader, issues statement after sexual harassment allegations,www.examiner.com.au/story/7320830/labor-leader-stands-aside-over-sexual-harassment-accusation/, subscription, 13 July 2021, The Examiner (Tasmania), The Examiner, 30 June 2021, 13 July 2021,web.archive.org/web/20210713010048/https://www.examiner.com.au/story/7320830/labor-leader-stands-aside-over-sexual-harassment-accusation/, live, This was followed by O’Byrne announcing he would resign as leader on 4 July 2021.NEWS, Abblitt, Ebony, David O’Byrne to resign as Labor leader, subscription,www.examiner.com.au/story/7325420/david-obyrne-to-resign-as-labor-leader/, 13 July 2021, The Examiner (Tasmania), The Examiner, 4 July 2021, 13 July 2021,web.archive.org/web/20210713010045/https://www.examiner.com.au/story/7325420/david-obyrne-to-resign-as-labor-leader/, live, On 7 July 2021, Rebecca White was elected as leader after a meeting of the Labor parliamentary caucus.NEWS, Rebecca White returned as Tasmanian Labor leader after David O’Byrne’s resignation,www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-07/rebecca-white-re-elected-as-leader-of-tasmanian-labor-party/100272820, 13 July 2021, ABC News (Australia), ABC News, 7 July 2021, 12 July 2021,web.archive.org/web/20210712130915/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-07/rebecca-white-re-elected-as-leader-of-tasmanian-labor-party/100272820, live,

Resignation of Peter Gutwein

On 4 April 2022, Premier Peter Gutwein announced he would quit politics, resigning as Premier and as a member for Bass following the appointment of a new Premier.WEB, 4 April 2022, Tasmanian Premier Peter Gutwein quits politics,www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-04/tasmanian-premier-peter-gutwein-quits-politics/100965020, 4 April 2022, Australian Broadcasting Corporation, ABC, 4 April 2022,web.archive.org/web/20220404060547/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-04/tasmanian-premier-peter-gutwein-quits-politics/100965020, live, Jeremy Rockliff, who had been the deputy Liberal leader for 16 years, officially replaced Gutwein as Premier on 8 April 2022, with Bass MP Michael Ferguson as his deputy.WEB, Humphries, Alexandra, 8 April 2022, Jeremy Rockliff, Michael Ferguson announced as Tasmania’s leadership team,www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-08/jeremy-rockliff-michael-ferguson-announced/100972930, 8 April 2022, Australian Broadcasting Corporation, ABC, 8 April 2022,web.archive.org/web/20220408001340/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-08/jeremy-rockliff-michael-ferguson-announced/100972930, live,

Restoration of 35 seats in Assembly

On 25 May 2022, Premier Rockliff announced his intention to table a bill in State Parliament to restore the state’s House of Assembly to 35 seats before the end of 2022.NEWS, Humphries, Alexandra, 25 May 2022, Premier Jeremy Rockliff to introduce bill to restore Tasmania’s Lower House to 35 seats,www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-25/tas-move-on-to-increase-size-of-tas-lower-house/101099180, 25 May 2022, 25 May 2022,web.archive.org/web/20220525063746/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-25/tas-move-on-to-increase-size-of-tas-lower-house/101099180, live, WEB, 25 May 2022, Restoring the size of the Tasmanian Parliament,www.premier.tas.gov.au/site_resources_2015/additional_releases/restoring_the_size_of_the_tasmanian_parliament, 25 May 2022, 25 May 2022,web.archive.org/web/20220525053345/https://www.premier.tas.gov.au/site_resources_2015/additional_releases/restoring_the_size_of_the_tasmanian_parliament, live, Premier’s Department, The bill restored the size of parliament to its original number before the reductions to 25 seats was implemented at the 1998 election. The change will come into effect at this election. The legislation was supported by the Liberals, Labor, Greens and independent Kristie Johnston.NEWS, Morton, Adam, 25 May 2022, Tasmanian parliament to expand to 35 lower house seats amid concerns about ministerial burnout, The Guardian,www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/26/tasmanian-parliament-to-expand-to-35-lower-house-seats-amid-concerns-about-ministerial-burnout, 26 May 2022, 26 May 2022,web.archive.org/web/20220526020252/https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/26/tasmanian-parliament-to-expand-to-35-lower-house-seats-amid-concerns-about-ministerial-burnout, live, It became law upon its assent by the Governor in December 2022.

Minority government and a snap election

On 11 May 2023, MPs Lara Alexander and John Tucker resigned as members of the Tasmanian Liberal Party and from all parliamentary committees, and served the remainder of their terms as independents on the crossbench. This left the Liberal party in minority government and requiring 7 seats to reach a majority in the next state election.NEWS, 2023-05-11, Live: Anger over Hobart AFL stadium sinks Tasmania’s government into minority as MPs quit party, en-AU, ABC News,www.abc.net.au/news/2023-05-12/tasmania-liberal-government-in-minority-mps-defect-over-stadium/102333446, 2023-05-12, 23 May 2023,web.archive.org/web/20230523213122/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-05-12/tasmania-liberal-government-in-minority-mps-defect-over-stadium/102333446, live, Tucker and Alexander both agreed to provide the government with confidence and supply.On 4 January 2024, Tucker threatened to withdraw his support for the government if it failed to act on his demands for mandatory CCTV in all abattoirs in the state and the cessation of planning for a professional sports training facility at Rosny Parklands and a 25,000-seat stadium at Macquarie Point for an Australian Football League (AFL) team in 2028.WEB,www.abc.net.au/news/2024-01-04/john-tucker-threatens-tas-gov-if-it-doesnt-install-abattoir-cctv/103284030, Tasmanian MP John Tucker threatens to ‘bring down’ minority Liberal government over animal welfare, AFL deal, 4 January 2024, ABC News, Evan Wallace, In response Rockliff stated in an interview on 2 February, that he would ask the Governor for a snap election if Tucker and Alexander failed to agree on a new governing deal that required the two MPs to not support support proposals or changes to legislation raised by Labor, Green or other independent MPs in parliament without the permission of the government.WEB,www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-02/tas-rockliff-stateline-analysis-early-election-trigger/103413270, Tasmanian Premier Jeremy Rockliff calls for independents to be a little less independent or we have an early election, ABC News, 4 February 2024, Adam Langenberg, On 13 February, Rockliff announced that the Liberal party room had endorsed a snap election due to there being no agreement reached between the government and the independent MPs.WEB,www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/feb/13/tasmania-premier-jeremy-rockliff-pulls-trigger-on-early-state-election, Tasmania premier Jeremy Rockliff pulls trigger on early state election, The Guardian, 13 February 2024, The following day Rockliff visited Governor Barbara Baker at Government House, who accepted his request for an election to be held on 23 March 2024.WEB,www.youtube.com/watch?v=2sASEJYyzN0&t=2s, IN FULL: Tasmanian Premier Jeremy Rockliff announces early election, ABC News, YouTube, 14 February 2024,

Changes in parliamentary composition

Since the 2021 election, there were a number of changes within the Tasmanian Parliament which affected the balance of power in the chamber.{|class=“wikitable sortable” style="border: none; background: none;“!rowspan=“2” | Seat!colspan=“3” | Before!colspan=“2” | Change!colspan=“4” | After!Member!colspan=“2” | Party!Type!Date!Date!Member!colspan=“2” | PartyDivision of Braddon (state)>BraddonAdam Brooks (politician)>Adam BrooksLiberal}} |Liberal Party of Australia (Tasmanian Division)>Liberal|Resignation|14 March 2021|3 June 2021|Felix EllisLiberal}} |Liberal Party of Australia (Tasmanian Division)>LiberalDivision of Franklin (state)>Franklin|David O’ByrneLabor}} |Australian Labor Party (Tasmanian Branch)>Labor|Defection 23 August 2021|David O’ByrneLabor}} |Independent Labor (Australia)>Independent LaborDivision of Bass (state)>Bass|Sarah CourtneyLiberal}} |Liberal Party of Australia (Tasmanian Division)>Liberal|Resignation|10 February 2022|25 March 2022|Lara AlexanderLiberal}} |Liberal Party of Australia (Tasmanian Division)>LiberalDivision of Bass (state)>Bass|Peter GutweinLiberal}} |Liberal Party of Australia (Tasmanian Division)>Liberal|Resignation|8 April 2022|25 April 2022Simon Wood (politician)>Simon WoodLiberal}} |Liberal Party of Australia (Tasmanian Division)>LiberalDivision of Franklin (state)>Franklin|Jacquie PetrusmaLiberal}} |Liberal Party of Australia (Tasmanian Division)>Liberal|Resignation|25 July 2022|16 August 2022Dean Young (Australian politician)>Dean YoungLiberal}} |Liberal Party of Australia (Tasmanian Division)>LiberalDivision of Bass (state)>Bass|Lara AlexanderLiberal}} |Liberal Party of Australia (Tasmanian Division)>Liberal|Defection 11 May 2023|Lara AlexanderIndependent}} |Independent politician>IndependentDivision of Lyons (state)>LyonsJohn Tucker (Tasmanian politician)>John TuckerLiberal}} |Liberal Party of Australia (Tasmanian Division)>Liberal|Defection 11 May 2023John Tucker (Tasmanian politician)>John TuckerIndependent}} |Independent politician>IndependentDivision of Clark (state)>Clark|Cassy O’ConnorGreens}} |Tasmanian Greens>Greens|Resignation|13 July 2023|1 August 2023|Vica BayleyGreens}} |Tasmanian Greens>GreensDivision of Clark (state)>Clark|Elise ArcherLiberal}} |Liberal Party of Australia (Tasmanian Division)>Liberal|Defection 29 September 2023|Elise ArcherIndependent}} |Independent politician>IndependentDivision of Clark (state)>Clark|Elise ArcherIndependent}} |Independent politician>Independent|Resignation|4 October 2023|24 October 2023|Simon BehrakisLiberal}} |Liberal Party of Australia (Tasmanian Division)>LiberalDivision of Franklin (state)>Franklin|David O’ByrneLabor}} |Independent Labor (Australia)>Independent Labor|Defection 4 February 2024|David O’ByrneIndependent}} |Independent politician>Independent

Candidates

A record 167 candidates nominated.WEB, Record 167 Nominations Received for 2024 State Election,tasmaniantimes.com/2024/02/record-167-nominations-received-for-2024-state-election/, Tasmanian Times,

Parties

Seven parties are registered with the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (TEC).WEB, TEC Party Register,www.tec.tas.gov.au/Info/TECPartyRegister.html, 2022-08-29, www.tec.tas.gov.au, 22 April 2023,web.archive.org/web/20230422063840/https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/Info/TECPartyRegister.html, live, The list of parties registered are:

• Animal Justice
• Labor
• Liberal
• Shooters, Fishers and Farmers
• Greens
• Jacqui Lambie Network
• The Local Network

Status {| class“wikitable” style@text-align:center”

! colspan=“2” rowspan=“2” | Parties! rowspan=“2” | Leader(s)! rowspan=“2” | Ideology! rowspan=“2” | Position! colspan=“3” | Seats! rowspan=“2” | Status! Last election! Before election! After electionLiberal Party of Australia}} |Tasmanian Liberal Party>Liberal| Jeremy RockliffLiberalism in Australia>LiberalismLiberal conservatismCentre-right politics>Centre-right13{{party color|Liberal Party of Australia}}}}11{{party color|Liberal Party of Australia}}}}14{{party color|Liberal Party of Australia}}}}Minority government}}Australian Labor Party}} |Tasmanian Labor Party>Labor| Rebecca White| Social democracyCentre-left politics>Centre-left9{{party color|Australian Labor Party}}}}8{{party color|Australian Labor Party}}}}10{{party color|Australian Labor Party}}}}Opposition}}Australian Greens}} |Tasmanian Greens>Greens| Rosalie Woodruff| Green politicsProgressivismLeft-wing politics>Left-wing2{{party color|Australian Greens}}}}2{{party color|Australian Greens}}}}5{{party color|Australian Greens}}}}Crossbench}}Jacqui Lambie Network>Lambie Network| Jacqui Lambie| Populism| Big tent0#ffcb08}}0#ffcb08}}3#ffcb08}}Crossbench{{font(With confidence and supply)}}}}Independent politician}} |Independent politician>Independents| {{N/A}}| {{N/A}}| Various1{{party color|Independent politician}}}}4#dcdcdc}}3{{party color|Independent politician}}}}Crossbench}}

Campaign

On 29 February 2024, Rockliff stated that if re-elected, his government would remove the protections from 40,000 hectares of protected native forest, allowing them to be logged.NEWS, Morton, Adam, 2024-02-29, Tasmanian premier Jeremy Rockliff pledges to open protected native forests to logging,www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/feb/29/tasmanian-premier-jeremy-rockliff-pledges-to-open-protected-native-forests-to-logging, 2024-03-11, The Guardian, en-GB, 0261-3077, On 10 March 2024, Rockliff committed A$12 million to support building a “chocolate experience” centre near the Hobart Cadbury factory, which would include the “world’s largest chocolate fountain”.NEWS, Kurmelovs, Royce, 2024-03-10, Pure imagination: Tasmanian premier vows to build world’s largest chocolate fountain if re-elected,www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/mar/10/pure-imagination-tasmanian-premier-vows-to-build-worlds-largest-chocolate-fountain-if-re-elected, 2024-03-11, The Guardian, en-GB, 0261-3077, On 11 March 2024, White put forth plans for a shared-equity housing scheme that would allow couples earning under $200,000 and singles earning under $150,000 to partake in a deal with the government, allowing them to buy a property without a deposit, and the government retaining a 20% share of the property.NEWS, Lohberger, Loretta, 11 March 2024, No deposit, no worries: Is Tasmanian Labor’s housing promise all it’s cracked up to be?,www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-11/tas-labor-announces-shared-equity-scheme-home-ownership/103573436, 2024-03-11, ABC News, en-AU, On 14 March 2024, social media erupted after a mock website of the Jacqui Lambie Network was discovered online.WEB, James, Ethan, 2024-03-14, Tas premier defends ‘grubby’ Lambie campaign website,www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8555736/tas-premier-defends-grubby-lambie-campaign-website/, 2024-03-14, The Canberra Times, en-AU, The URL (lambienetwork.com) is said by various media outlets to be shockingly similar to Lambie’s true website, (lambienetwork.com.au).NEWS, 2024-03-13, ‘Absolutely ropeable’: Lambie slams Liberals for using domain name almost identical to her official party site,www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-14/jacqui-lambie-slams-liberals-over-website/103581992, 2024-03-14, ABC News, en-AU, The page is owned by the Liberals as is evident by authorisation details on the page.WEB, 14 March 2024, Lambie lashes ‘fake’ website set up by Liberal Party,www.themercury.com.au/news/tasmania/lambie-lashes-fake-website-set-up-by-liberals/news-story/d55e9af75c88b98c48034b8bca561126, The Mercury, The page itself is a mock-up of the style of the valid page, instead criticising Senator Lambie and her candidates for a lack of policies in the upcoming election.WEB, Jacqui Lambie Network {{!, No policies and no new ideas for Tasmania |url=https://www.lambienetwork.com/ |access-date=2024-03-14 |website=www.lambienetwork.com |language=en}} Lambie described herself as “absolutely ropable” when she became aware of the page. When Premier Rockliff was asked about the page, he stated, “We have every right to point out the policy failings of all political parties.“WEB, James, Ethan, 2024-03-14, Tas premier defends ‘grubby’ Lambie campaign website,www.theleader.com.au/story/8555736/tas-premier-defends-grubby-lambie-campaign-website/, 2024-03-14, St George & Sutherland Shire Leader, en-AU, The Tasmanian Electoral Commission has been contacted about the page.On 17 March 2024, Rockliff announced an intention to amend the Tasmanian Consitution to add a clause that would legislate that if an MP left the party on which they were elected, they would vacate their seat of parliament.NEWS, 2024-03-16, ‘Trumpian’ move to oust Liberal Party defectors from Tasmanian parliament blasted as ‘undemocratic’,www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-17/tasmanian-liberals-look-to-implement-stability-clause/103596272, 2024-03-17, ABC News, en-AU, The proposed amendment has been criticised by various officials, including former-Liberal turned independent MP, John Tucker. Tucker designated the legislation as “Rocky’s rule or else.” Among other criticisms.WEB, 17 March 2024, Liberals lay out plan to ensure a ‘stable’ government if re-elected, stopping MPs from turning on their party,www.themercury.com.au/news/tasmania/liberals-lay-out-plan-to-ensure-a-stable-government-if-reelected-stopping-mps-from-turning-on-their-party/news-story/d6196f49a165c9f3a0e21760522215a3, 17 March 2024, Mercury Newspaper, Rockliff describes it as the only way to ensure a stable government continues throughout the term. Labor candidate for Franklin, Dean Winter, speculates the legislation may be in attempt to prevent candidate Eric Abetz from diverging from the Liberals in event of disagreement on same-sex conversion laws, of which Abetz has countering views to his party.WEB, Godde, Luke Costin and Callum, 2024-03-17, Till death do us part: Tas Lib vow law to oust quitters,www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8557901/till-death-do-us-part-tas-lib-vow-law-to-oust-quitters/, 2024-03-17, The Canberra Times, en-AU, On 20 March 2024, during the Sky News Australia Peoples Forum debate between White and Rockliff, White pledged that if a Labor government was elected in this election, they will construct a public elective surgery hospital in New Town, Tasmania. The hospital is proposed to have 24 overnight beds, along with 8 theatres. The budget is expected to be $160m, and would be completed by 2027.WEB, Labor to deliver thousands more surgeries with New Town hospital,taslabor.org.au/news/media-releases/labor-to-deliver-thousands-more-surgeries-with-new-town-hospital/, 2024-03-20, taslabor.org.au, en,

Opinion polling

Polling is regularly conducted for Tasmanian state politics by Enterprise Marketing and Research Services (EMRS). The sample size for each EMRS poll is 1,000 Tasmanian voters.EMRS.com.au website {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220309014852emrs.com.au/ |date=9 March 2022 }}.

Voting intention

The latest polling by uComms on behalf The Australia Institute indicates that the Liberals will win 13 seats, Labor would win 8, The Greens would win 5, Lambie Network 3, and there would be 6 Independents. This would indicate that neither of the major parties could win a majority, and instead would need to form a minority government with Lambie, Greens or Independent MPs. Although both major parties have expressed a dislike in forming coalition,WEB, 2024-03-13, White’s ‘no deal’ claim simply doesn’t stack up,tas.liberal.org.au/news/2024/03/13/whites-no-deal-claim-simply-doesnt-stack, 2024-03-17, Tasmanian Liberals, en-au, NEWS, 2024-03-15, One claims ‘underdog’ status. The other says their party’s the favourite. But will Tasmanians deliver a stalemate?,www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-16/tasmanian-election-liberal-labor-final-week-of-campaign/103593794, 2024-03-17, ABC News, en-AU, with Labor outright denying a Greens-Labor coalition,NEWS, Press, Australian Associated, 2019-09-01, Tasmanian Labor leader says party will never again join forces with the Greens,www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/sep/01/tasmanian-labor-leader-says-party-will-never-again-join-forces-with-the-greens, 2024-03-17, The Guardian, en-GB, 0261-3077, and the Liberals refusing to trade policies.NEWS, 2024-02-20, Is minority government really the worst possible outcome of a state election?,www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-21/tas-election-minority-government-possibility-lara-giddings/103487778, 2024-03-17, ABC News, en-AU, The Greens are holding out hope for a coalition, stating they prefer Labor over Liberals in terms of forming a minority government.WEB, Greens-Labor Threat To Tasmania,www.miragenews.com/greens-labor-threat-to-tasmania-1192508/, 2024-03-17, Mirage News, en-AU, {| class=“wikitable toccolours” cellpadding=“5” cellspacing=“0” style="float:left; text-align:center; margin-right:.5em; margin-top:.4em; font-size:90%;”|+House of Assembly (lower house) polling! rowspan=“2“|Date! rowspan=“2“|Firm! style="background:#ccc;” colspan=“7“|Political parties! style="background:#00bfff;“|Liberal! style="background:#f66;“|Labor! style="background:#10c25b;“|Greens! style="background:#ffcb08;“|JLN! style="background:#ddd;“|{{tooltip|Ind/Other|Independent/Other}}!4–5 March 2024WEBSITE=THE AUSTRALIA INSTITUTE ACCESS-DATE=12 MARCH 2024, ! style="background:#00bfff;“|37%|23%|14%|8%|18%!16–28 February 2024FIRST1=SAMANTHA NEWSPAPER=AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW, 4 March 2024, ! style="background:#00bfff;“|33%|29%|14%|10%|14%!15–21 February 2024PUBLISHER=EMRS, ! style="background:#00bfff;“|39%|26%|12%|9%|15%!21 December 2023 – 4 January 2024DATE=10 JANUARY 2024 PUBLISHER=YOUGOV AUSTRALIA URL-STATUS=LIVE ARCHIVE-DATE=11 JANUARY 2024, ! style="background:#00bfff;“|31%|27%|15%|20%|7%!30 November 2023 DATE=30 NOVEMBER 2023, ! style="background:#00bfff;“|39%|29%|12%|{{N/A}}|19%!15–19 August 2023WEBSITE=EMRS AUGUST 2023, 16 February 2024, ! style="background:#00bfff;“|38%|32%|14%|{{N/A}}|15%!15–19 May 2023URL=HTTPS://STATIC1.SQUARESPACE.COM/STATIC/63435F017F0007502AB52A5D/T/646D6FD0BFCAB25D518709D0/1684893650530/EMRS+STATE+VOTING+INTENTIONS+REPORT+-+MAY+2023.PDF ARCHIVE-URL=HTTPS://WEB.ARCHIVE.ORG/WEB/20230524103211/HTTPS://STATIC1.SQUARESPACE.COM/STATIC/63435F017F0007502AB52A5D/T/646D6FD0BFCAB25D518709D0/1684893650530/EMRS+STATE+VOTING+INTENTIONS+REPORT+-+MAY+2023.PDF, 24 May 2023, ! style="background:#00bfff;“|36%|31%|15%|{{N/A}}|18%!14–19 February 2023DATE=2 MARCH 2023 ARCHIVE-DATE=28 MARCH 2023,web.archive.org/web/20230328002746/https://static1.squarespace.com/static/63435f017f0007502ab52a5d/t/63fff9d825a3a80110aecb45/1677720025754/EMRS+State+Voting+Intentions+Report+-+February+2023.pdf, ! style="background:#00bfff;“|42%|30%|13%|{{N/A}}|15%!8–15 November 2022URL= HTTPS://STATIC1.SQUARESPACE.COM/STATIC/63435F017F0007502AB52A5D/T/6383FF241D0E3C4BEBC0266A/1669594918906/EMRS+STATE+VOTING+INTENTIONS+REPORT+-+NOVEMBER+2022.PDF ARCHIVE-URL=HTTPS://WEB.ARCHIVE.ORG/WEB/20230326022103/HTTPS://STATIC1.SQUARESPACE.COM/STATIC/63435F017F0007502AB52A5D/T/6383FF241D0E3C4BEBC0266A/1669594918906/EMRS+STATE+VOTING+INTENTIONS+REPORT+-+NOVEMBER+2022.PDF, 26 March 2023, ! style="background:#00bfff;“|42%|29%|14%|{{N/A}}|16%!8–11 August 2022WEBSITE=EMRS ARCHIVE-DATE=2 SEPTEMBER 2022 URL-STATUS=LIVE, ! style="background:#00bfff;“|41%|31%|13%|{{N/A}}|15%!27 May – 2 June 2022PUBLISHER=TASMANIAN TIMES ARCHIVE-DATE=10 JUNE 2022 URL-STATUS=LIVE, ! style="background:#00bfff;“|39%|30%|13%|{{N/A}}|18%!28 February – 1 March 2022PUBLISHER=EMRS ARCHIVE-DATE=9 MARCH 2022 URL-STATUS=LIVE, ! style="background:#00bfff;“|41%|31%|12%|{{N/A}}|16%!28 November – 5 December 2021PUBLISHER=EMRS ARCHIVE-DATE=3 MARCH 2022 URL-STATUS=LIVE, ! style="background:#00bfff;“|49%|26%|13%|{{N/A}}|12%!7–9 August 2021PUBLISHER=EMRS ARCHIVE-DATE=3 MARCH 2022 URL-STATUS=LIVE, ! style="background:#00bfff;“|49%|28%|13%|{{N/A}}|10%! style="background:#b0e9db;“|1 May 2021! style="background:#b0e9db;” |2021 election28.20%12.38%| style="background:#b0e9db;” {{N/A}}10.71%{{clear}}

Preferred Premier

{| class=“toccolours” cellpadding=“5” cellspacing=“0” style="float:left; text-align:center; margin-right:.5em; margin-top:.4em; font-size:90%;”|+Preferred Premier polling! rowspan=“2“|Date! rowspan=“2“|Firm! style="background:#ccc;” colspan=“7“|Party leaders! style="background:#00bfff;“|Rockliff! style="background:#f66;“|White! style="background:#ddd;“|Unsure!15–21 August 2023|EMRS! style="background:#00bfff;“|42%|39%|18%!15–19 May 2023|EMRS|38%! style="background:#f66;“|40%|18%!14–19 February 2023|EMRS! style="background:#00bfff;“|44%|36%|17%!8–15 November 2022|EMRS! style="background:#00bfff;“|46%|34%|18%!8–11 August 2022|EMRS! style="background:#00bfff;“|47%|35%|16%!27 May – 2 June 2022|EMRS! style="background:#00bfff;“|47%|34%|18%! colspan=“6” text-align=“center” | Jeremy Rockliff replaces Peter Gutwein as Premier and Liberal leader! rowspan=“2“|Date! rowspan=“2“|Firm! style="background:#ccc;” colspan=“7“|Party leaders! style="background:#00bfff;“|Gutwein! style="background:#f66;“|White! style="background:#ddd;“|Unsure!28 February – 1 March 2022|EMRS! style="background:#00bfff;“|52%|33%|14%!28 November – 5 December 2021|EMRS! style="background:#00bfff;“|59%|29%|12%!7–9 August 2021|EMRS! style="background:#00bfff;“|59%|28%|11%{{clear}}

Results

{{Election results|total_sc={{increase}} 10|image=(File:2024 TAS House of Assembly.svg)|electorate=408197|invalid=23465|turnoutsw={{decrease}} 1.24|invalidsw={{increase}} 1.39|colour1=#080cabTasmanian Liberal Party>Liberal|votes1=127837|sw1={{decrease}} 12.05|seats1=14|sc1={{increase}} 1|colour2=#f00011Tasmanian Labor Party>Labor|votes2=101113|sw2={{increase}} 0.80|seats2=10|sc2={{increase}} 1|colour3=#10c25bTasmanian Greens>Greens|votes3=48430|sw3={{increase}} 1.51|seats3=5|sc3={{increase}} 3|colour4=#FFCB08Jacqui Lambie Network>Lambie Network|votes4=23260|sw4={{increase}} 6.67|seats4=3|sc4={{increase}} 3Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party>Shooters, Fishers and Farmers|votes5=8126|sw5={{decrease}} 0.71|seats5=0|sc5={{steady}}Animal Justice Party>Animal Justice|votes6=5283|sw6={{increase}} 0.11|seats6=0|sc6={{steady}}|colour7=#e0058c|party7=Local Network|votes7=1028|sw7={{increase}} 0.29|seats7=0|sc7={{steady}}Independent politician>Independents|votes8=33535|sw8={{increase}} 3.40|seats8=3|sc8={{increase}} 2|source=TEC, ABC}}

Primary vote percentages by division {| class“wikitable”

!! Bass! Braddon! Clark! Franklin! Lyons Tasmanian Liberal Party>| 37.6% Tasmanian Labor Party>| 32.8% Tasmanian Greens >| 10.9% Jacqui Lambie Network >| 8.3% Other 12.0% 11.7% 21.6% 14.0% 10.4%

Distribution of seats

{{col-begin|width=auto}}{{col-break}}{| class=“wikitable”! Electorate! colspan=7| Seats won BassLabor}}Michelle O’Byrne>      Labor}}Janie Finlay>      Greens}}Cecily Rosol>      Jacqui Lambie Network}}Rebekah Pentland>      Liberal}}Michael Ferguson (Australian politician)>      Liberal}}Rob Fairs>      Liberal}}Simon Wood (politician)>       BraddonLabor}}Anita Dow>      Labor}}Shane Broad>      Independent}}Craig Garland>      Jacqui Lambie Network}}Miriam Beswick>      Liberal}}Jeremy Rockliff>      Liberal}}Felix Ellis>      Liberal}}Roger Jaensch>       ClarkLabor}}Ella Haddad>      Labor}}Josh Willie>      Greens}}Vica Bayley>      Greens}}Helen Burnet>      Independent}}Kristie Johnston>      Liberal}}Simon Behrakis>      Liberal}}Madeleine Ogilvie>       FranklinLabor}}Dean Winter>      Labor}}Meg Brown>      Greens}}Rosalie Woodruff>      Independent}}David O’Byrne>      Liberal}}Eric Abetz>      Liberal}}Jacquie Petrusma>      Liberal}}Nic Street>       LyonsLabor}}Rebecca White>      Labor}}Jen Butler>      Greens}}Tabatha Badger>      Jacqui Lambie Network}}Andrew Jenner>      Liberal}}Guy Barnett (Australian politician)>      Liberal}}Jane Howlett>      Liberal}}Mark Shelton (Australian politician)>      {{col-break|gap=5em}}{| style="margin-top:1em”Liberal}} |  | LiberalLabor}} |  | LaborGreens}} |  | GreensJacqui Lambie Network}} |  | LambieIndependent}} |  | Independent{{col-end}}

Aftermath

{{Further|2024 Tasmanian government formation|Second Rockliff ministry}}The day after the election, Labor conceded and its leader Rebecca White stated the party was not in a position to form a minority government, causing a leadership election to be held under the party’s constitution.WEB, Holmes, Adam, Tasmanian Labor concedes it has lost the state election, party leadership position becomes vacant,www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-24/labor-concede-tasmanian-election-rebecca-white-leader/103625422, ABC News, 24 March 2024, 24 March 2024, Rockliff reportedly began discussions with elected independents and Jacqui Lambie Network candidates to form a Liberal minority government. On 10 April, the Liberal Party and Jacqui Lambie Network announced an agreement had been reached for the latter to provide confidence and supply to the government. The second Rockliff ministry was sworn in by Governor Barbara Baker the following day, as Rockliff revealed independent MP David O’Byrne had provided a written assurance of confidence and supply votes in parliament, thereby enabling the re-elected government to take office. Letters of confidence and supply assurances were signed by O’Byrne and another independent MP, Kristie Johnston, and were released to the public on 24 April 2024. This gave the Liberal government 19 votes out of 35 in parliament to govern.

Notes

{{notelist}}

References

{{reflist}}{{Tasmanian elections}}{{Politics of Australia}}