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population growth
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In biology or human geography, population growth is the increase in the number of individuals in a population.Many of the world's countries, including many in Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, South Asia and South East Asia, have seen a sharp rise in population since the end of the Cold War. The fear is that high population numbers are putting further strain on natural resources, food supplies, fuel supplies, employment, housing, etc. in some of the less fortunate countries. For example, the population of Chad has ultimately grown from 6,279,921 in 1993 to 10,329,208 in 2009, further straining its resources. Niger, Pakistan, Nigeria, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the DRC are witnessing a similar growth in population.Global human population growth amounts to around 83 million annually,WEB,weblink World Population Prospects 2017, en, 2017-11-21, or 1.1% per year. The global population has grown from 1 billion in 1800 to 7.616 billionWEB, worldometers.info/world-population/title=World Population 2017, 2018-04-18, in 2018. It is expected to keep growing, and estimates have put the total population at 8.6 billion by mid-2030, 9.8 billion by mid-2050 and 11.2 billion by 2100.WEB,weblink World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision: Key Findings and Advance Tables, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2, 2019-01-05, {| class="wikitable" style="float: right; clear:right; margin-left: 10px"! colspan=3 align="center" style="background-color: #cfb;" | PopulationUnited Nations - World Population Prospects 2017! style="background-color: #cfb;" | Years passed! style="background-color: #cfb;" | Year! style="background-color: #cfb;" | Billion
---
– 1800 align="right"| 1
---
127 1927 align="right"| 2
---
33 1960 align="right"| 3
---
14 1974 align="right"| 4
---
13 1987 align="right"| 5
---
12 1999 align="right"| 6
---
12 2011 align="right"| 7
---
12 2023* align="right"| 8
---
14 2037* align="right"| 9
---
18 2055* align="right"| 10
----
33 2088* align="right"| 11
----
*World Population Prospects 2017(United Nations Population Division)

History

Population began growing rapidly in the Western world early in the industrial revolution of the late 18th century. The reasons for the "Modern Rise of Population"BOOK, The Modern Rise of Population, McKeown, Thomas, Edward Arnold, 1976, 9780713159868, London, UK, were particularly investigated by the British health scientist Thomas McKeown (1912-1988). In his publications, McKeown challenged four theories about the population growth:
  1. McKeown stated that the growth in Western population, particularly surging in the 19th century, was not so much caused by an increase in fertility, but largely by a decline of mortality particularly of childhood mortality followed by infant mortality,JOURNAL, McKeown T, Brown RG, 1955, Medical evidence related to English population changes in the eighteenth century, Population Studies, 9, 2, 119–141, 10.1080/00324728.1955.10404688, 2172162, JOURNAL, McKeown T, Brown RG, Record RG, 1972, An interpretation of the modern rise of population in Europe, Population Studies, 26, 3, 345–382, 10.1080/00324728.1972.10405908, 2173815,
  2. The decline of mortality could largely be attributed to rising standards of living, whereby McKeown put most emphasis on improved nutritional status,
  3. His most controversial idea, at least his most disputed idea, was that he questioned the effectiveness of public health measures, including sanitary reforms, vaccination and quarantine,JOURNAL, McKeown T, Record RG, 1962


, Reasons for the Decline of Mortality in England and Wales during the Nineteenth Century
, Population Studies, 16, 2, 94–122
, 10.2307/2173119, 2173119,
  1. The sometime fierce disputes that his publication provoked around the "McKeown thesis", have overshadowed his more important and largely unchallenged argument that curative medicine measures played little role in mortality decline, not only prior to the mid-20th century but also until well into the 20th century.JOURNAL, McKeown T, Record RG, Turner RD, 1975


, An Interpretation of the Decline of Mortality in England and Wales during the Twentieth Century
, Population Studies, 29, 3, 391–422
, 10.1080/00324728.1975.10412707, 2173935, 11630508,
Although the McKeown thesis has been heavily disputed, recent studies have confirmed the value of his ideas.JOURNAL, Korotayev, A. V., Malkov, A. S., 2016,weblink Compact Mathematical Model of the World System Economic and Demographic Growth, 1 CE–1973 CE, International Journal of Mathematical Models and Methods in Applied Sciences, 10, 200–209, His work is pivotal for present day thinking about population growth, birth control, public health and medical care. McKeown had a major influence on many population researchers, such as health economists and Nobel prize winners Robert W. Fogel (1993) and Angus Deaton (2015). The latter considered McKeown as "the founder of social medicine".BOOK, The Great Escape. Health, wealth, and the origins of inequality, Deaton, Angus, Princeton University Press, 2013, 978 0 691 15354 4, Princeton and Oxford, 91–93, McKeown's views, updated to modern circumstances, are still important today in debates between those who think that health is primarily determined by medical discoveries and medical treatment and those who look to the background social conditions of life.,

Population growth rate

The "population growth rate" is the rate at which the number of individuals in a population increases in a given time period, expressed as a fraction of the initial population. Specifically, population growth rate refers to the change in population over a unit time period, often expressed as a percentage of the number of individuals in the population at the beginning of that period. This can be written as the formula, valid for a sufficiently small time interval:
Population growth rate = frac{ P(t_2) - P(t_1)} {P(t_1)(t_2-t_1)}
A positive growth rate indicates that the population is increasing, while a negative growth rate indicates that the population is decreasing. A growth ratio of zero indicates that there were the same number of individuals at the beginning and end of the period—a growth rate may be zero even when there are significant changes in the birth rates, death rates, immigration rates, and age distribution between the two times.Association of Public Health Epidemiologists in Ontario {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080522092307weblink |date=2008-05-22 }}A related measure is the net reproduction rate. In the absence of migration, a net reproduction rate of more than 1 indicates that the population of females is increasing, while a net reproduction rate less than one (sub-replacement fertility) indicates that the population of females is decreasing.Most populations do not grow exponentially, rather they follow a logistic model. Once the population has reached its carrying capacity, it will stabilize and the exponential curve will level off towards the carrying capacity, which is usually when a population has depleted most its natural resources.BOOK, Campbell Biology, Reece, Jane, Urry, Lisa, Cain, Michael, Wasserman, Steven, Minorsky, Peter, Jackson, Robert, Pearson, 2014, (File:Logistic growth graph (population ecology).JPG|thumb|The logistic growth of a population.)

Logistic equation

The growth of a population can often be modelled by the logistic equationBOOK, Brief Applied Calculus, Stewart, James, Clegg, Daniel, Brooks/Cole Cengage Learning, 2012,
frac{dP}{dt}=rPleft(1-frac{P}{K}right),
where
  • P(t) = the population after time t;
  • t = time a population grows;
  • r = the relative growth rate coefficient;
  • K = the carrying capacity of the population; defined by ecologists as the maximum population size that a particular environment can sustain.
As it is a separable differential equation, the population may be solved explicitly, producing a logistic function:
P(t)=frac{K}{1+Ae^{-rt}},
where A=frac{K-P_0}{P_0} and P_0 is the initial population at time 0.

Human population growth rate

{{see|Total fertility rate|World population estimates|Human overpopulation}}File:Countriesbyfertilityrate.svg|thumb|350px|A world map showing global variations in fertility rate per woman according to the CIA World FactbookCIA World FactbookFile:World population (UN).svg|thumb|350px|Estimates of population evolution in different continents between 1950 and 2050 according to the United Nations. The vertical axis is logarithmic and is in millions of people.]](File:World population growth rate 1950–2050.svg|thumb|350px|World population growth rates between 1950–2050)In 2017, the estimated annual growth rate was 1.1%.WEB,weblink World Population Prospects 2017,weblink" title="web.archive.org/web/20170711042851weblink">weblink 2017-07-11, yes, The CIA World Factbook gives the world annual birthrate, mortality rate, and growth rate as 1.86%, 0.78%, and 1.08% respectively.WEB,weblink The World Factbook, 20 November 2015, 4 January 2016, The last 100 years have seen a massive fourfold increase in the population, due to medical advances, lower mortality rates, and an increase in agricultural productivityNEWS,weblink BBC NEWS - South Asia - The end of India's green revolution?, 2006-05-29, made possible by the Green Revolution.The annual increase in the number of living humans peaked at 88.0 million in 1989, then slowly declined to 73.9 million in 2003, after which it rose again to 75.2 million in 2006. In 2017, the human population increased by 83 million. Generally, developed nations have seen a decline in their growth rates in recent decades, though annual growth rates remain above 2% in poverty-stricken countries of the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa, and also in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Latin America.WEB,weblink International Programs, yes,weblink" title="web.archive.org/web/20090701122431weblink">weblink 2009-07-01, In some countries the population is declining, especially in Eastern Europe, mainly due to low fertility rates, high death rates and emigration. In Southern Africa, growth is slowing due to the high number of AIDS-related deaths. Some Western Europe countries might also experience population decline.UN population projections {{webarchive|url=https://www.webcitation.org/5tpNJ6FqS?url=http://esa.un.org/unpp/index.asp?panel=2 |date=2010-10-28 }} Japan's population began decreasing in 2005.NEWS,weblink Japan sees biggest population fall, the Guardian, 2009-01-02, Associated Press, The United Nations Population Division projects world population to reach 11.2 billion by the end of the 21st century, but Sanjeev Sanyal has argued that global fertility will fall below the replacement rate in the 2020s and that world population will peak below 9 billion by 2050, followed by a long decline.WEB,weblink Sanjeev Sanyal on The End of Population Growth - Project Syndicate, Sanjeev Sanyal, Project Syndicate, 2011-10-30, A 2014 study in Science concludes that the global population will reach 11 billion by 2100, with a 70% chance of continued growth into the 22nd century.NEWS, Carrington, Damien, September 18, 2014,weblink World population to hit 11bn in 2100 – with 70% chance of continuous rise, The Guardian, December 19, 2016,

Growth by country

According to United Nations population statistics, the world population grew by 30%, or 1.6 billion humans, between 1990 and 2010.WEB,weblink World Population Prospects - Population Division - United Nations, In number of people the increase was highest in India (350 million) and China (196 million). Population growth was among highest in the United Arab Emirates (315%) and Qatar (271%).{| class="wikitable sortable"|+ Growth rates of the world's most populous countries!Rank!Country!Population 1990!Population 2010!Estimated population2018WEB,weblink East Asia/Southeast Asia :: China — The World Factbook - Central Intelligence Agency, www.cia.gov, 2019-05-15, !Growth (%)1990–2010!Growth (%) 2010–2018
|
World>{{noflag}} World5,306,425,0006,895,889,000|7,503,828,18030.0%|
| 1
China}}1,139,060,0001,341,335,000|1,384,688,98617.1%|3.23%
| 2
India}}873,785,0001,224,614,000|1,296,834,04240.2%|5.90%
| 3
United States}}253,339,000310,384,000|329,256,46522.5%|6.08%
| 4
Indonesia}}184,346,000239,871,000|262,787,40330.1%|9.55%
| 5
Brazil}}149,650,000194,946,000|208,846,89230.3%|7.13%
| 6
Pakistan}}111,845,000173,593,000|207,862,51855.3%|19.74%
| 7
Nigeria}}97,552,000158,423,000|203,452,50562.4%|28.42%
| 8
Bangladesh}}105,256,000148,692,000|159,453,00141.3%|7.24%
| 9
Russia}}148,244,000142,958,000|142,122,776-3.6%| -0.58%
| 10
Japan}}122,251,000128,057,000|126,168,156 4.7%| -1.48%
Many of the world's countries, including many in Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, South Asia and South East Asia, have seen a sharp rise in population since the end of the Cold War. The fear is that high population numbers are putting further strain on natural resources, food supplies, fuel supplies, employment, housing, etc. in some of the less fortunate countries. For example, the population of Chad has ultimately grown from 6,279,921 in 1993 to 10,329,208 in 2009, further straining its resources. Vietnam, Mexico, Nigeria, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the DRC are witnessing a similar growth in population.The following table gives some example countries:{| class="wikitable sortable"! Example nation !! 1967 population !! 1990 population !! 1994 population !! 2002 population !! 2008 population !! Life expectancy in years (2008) !! Total population growth from 1960s to 2007- 2011
Eritrea* >978-1-84907-013-3}}.'Modern School Atlas (96th edition)', {{ISBN|2,236,520
Ethiopia* >0-19-894107-2}}50,974,000* The British Collins Atlas of the World, the 1993 edition, {{ISBNCollins Longman Student Atlas, the 1996 and in 1998 publications, {{ISBN>978-0-00-448879-0}} for the 1998 edition, {{ISBNEthiopia Central Statistics Office -- Population Projection for mid-2008 {{webarchive >url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120105033054weblink | 55,764,000
Sudan>| 27,917,000
Chad >| 6,919,205
Niger>PUBLISHER=THE WORLD FACTBOOKURL=HTTPS://WWW.CIA.GOV/LIBRARY/PUBLICATIONS/THE-WORLD-FACTBOOK/GEOS/NG.HTML ACCESSDATE=JANUARY 10, 2010, 44 11,760,252
Nigeria> VERSION=2008 REVISION AUTHOR=DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL AFFAIRS POPULATION DIVISION ACCESSDATE= 2009-03-12, NB: The preliminary results of the National population census in Guinea-Bissau put the figure at 1,449,230, according to email information by the Instituto Nacional de Estudos e Pesquisa, Bissau. 47 96,809,000
Mali>PUBLISHER=INSTITUT NATIONAL DE LA STATISTIQUE DEADURL=YES ARCHIVEDATE=APRIL 18, 2010 | 9,772,176
Mauritania >| 2,241,000
Senegal>PUBLISHER=THE WORLD FACTBOOKURL=HTTPS://WWW.CIA.GOV/LIBRARY/PUBLICATIONS/THE-WORLD-FACTBOOK/GEOS/SG.HTML ACCESSDATE=JANUARY 10, 2010, 57 10,104,597
Gambia>| 1,362,000
Algeria >VERSION=2008 REVISION AUTHOR=DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL AFFAIRS POPULATION DIVISION ACCESSDATE=2009-03-12, {{dead linkbot=medic}}{{cbignore| 23,061,874
The DRC/Zaire>The World Factbook- Congo, Democratic Republic of the. Central Intelligence Agency. >| 54,563,439
Egypt >PUBLISHER=MSRINTRANET.CAPMAS.GOV.EG ACCESSDATE=2010-08-25 ARCHIVEURL=HTTPS://WEB.ARCHIVE.ORG/WEB/20100908090727/HTTP://WWW.MSRINTRANET.CAPMAS.GOV.EG/PLS/FDL/TST12E?ACTION=&LNAME= DF=, 72 49,006,231
Réunion (overseas region of France)>| 409,000
Falkland Islands (British Overseas Territories>British Overseas Territory)2,500 N/A N/A 2,967 (2003) 3,140(2010)WEB
,weblink
, Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas)
, The World Factbook
, CIA
, 5 March 2010,
|| N/A|| 640
Chile>| 8,288,700
Colombia>PUBLISHER=DANE.GOV.CO ACCESSDATE=2010-08-22 ARCHIVEURL=HTTPS://WEB.ARCHIVE.ORG/WEB/20150905114224/HTTP://WWW.DANE.GOV.CO/RELOJ/RELOJ_ANIMADO.PHP DF=, 73 26,734,397
Brazil>Censo 2010: população do Brasil é de 190.732.694 pessoas. >| 105,077,694
PUBLISHER=INEGI.ORG.MX | 66,651,757
Fiji >| 372,273
Nauru>PUBLISHER=THE WORLD FACTBOOKURL=HTTPS://WWW.CIA.GOV/LIBRARY/PUBLICATIONS/THE-WORLD-FACTBOOK/GEOS/NR.HTML ACCESSDATE=12 FEBRUARY 2011, N/A 3,272
Jamaica >| 971,232
Australia >201112}} round 0}}}}HTTP://WWW.ABS.GOV.AU/AUSSTATS/ABS@.NSF/94713AD445FF1425CA25682000192AF2/1647509EF7E25FAACA2568A900154B63?OPENDOCUMENT>TITLE=POPULATION CLOCKAUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS WEBSITE>PUBLISHER=COMMONWEALTH OF AUSTRALIA| 10,066,508
Albania >|1,021,452
Poland>PUBLISHER=WIADOMOSCI.WP.PL ACCESSDATE=2010-07-27 ARCHIVE-DATE=2013-10-05 DF=, 75 6,248,000
Hungarian Central Statistical Office. Retrieved 25 July 2010. >| -142,000
Bulgaria>weblink >| -875,330
United Kingdom >PUBLISHER=EUROSTAT ACCESSDATE =29 APRIL 2011, 79 7,020,048
Ireland >DATE=SEPTEMBER 2010 | 1,586,698
People's Republic of China >Communiqué of the National Bureau of Statistics of People's Republic of China on Major Figures of the 2010 Population Census {{webarchive >url=https://web.archive.org/web/20131108022004weblink | 619,724,852
| 28,123,865
Ryukyu Islands (Once occupied by the United States)‡ >|N/A
WEBSITE=ACCESSDATE=2011-03-29, 69 699,078,422
Singapore>VERSION=31 AUG 2010 YEAR=2010 ARCHIVEURL=HTTPS://WEB.ARCHIVE.ORG/WEB/20090221030353/HTTP://WWW.SINGSTAT.GOV.SG/STATS/KEYIND.HTML#POPNAREA DF=, 82 (2008)3,120,700
Sikkim#>|N/A
Monaco >Monaco, The World Factbook, Central Intelligence Agency. Retrieved 7 June 2010. (2010) >|11,586
Greece >TITLE=Πίνακας 1. Πληθυσμός κατά φύλο και ηλικία ARCHIVEURL=HTTPS://WEB.ARCHIVE.ORG/WEB/20090325012639/HTTP://WWW.STATISTICS.GR/GR_TABLES/S1101_SAP_09_TB_DC_01_01_Y.PDF PUBLISHER=EUROSTAT ACCESSDATE=8 JANUARY 2010, N/A (2008) 2,589,118
Faroe Islands (Danish dependency)>ACCESSDATE=2015-12-10 ARCHIVEURL=HTTPS://WEB.ARCHIVE.ORG/WEB/20131210030515/HTTP://WWW.HAGSTOVA.FO/PORTAL/PAGE/PORTAL/HAGSTOVAN/HAGSTOVA_FOROYA DF=, (Faroese) N/A (2008)18,917
Liechtenstein>Bevölkerungsstatistik 30. Juni 2009 {{webarchive>url=https://web.archive.org/web/20131114083836weblink |15,789
South Korea>PUBLISHER=INDEX.GO.KR ACCESSDATE=2010-10-29, (2008)19,667,144
North Korea> PUBLISHER = UNITED NATIONS DATE = 2009-10-01 DEADURL = YES ARCHIVEDATE = 2010-04-17 LANGUAGE=KO, (2008)11,351,218
Brunei> VERSION= CIA WORLD FACTBOOK > AUTHOR= ACCESSDATE=2011-01-13, 76 (2008)306,609
Malaysia>PUBLISHER=JABATAN PERANGKAAN MALAYSIA ACCESSDATE=31 JANUARY 2011 ARCHIVEURL=HTTPS://WEB.ARCHIVE.ORG/WEB/20110708202650/HTTP://WWW.STATISTICS.GOV.MY/CCOUNT12/CLICK.PHP?ID=2127 DF=, (2008)16,894,821
Thailand>PUBLISHER=WEB.NSO.GO.TH ACCESSDATE=2010-04-25, 63,878,267 (2011)HTTP://203.113.86.149/STAT/PK/PK53/PK_53.PDF >TITLE=ARCHIVED COPY DEADURL=YES ARCHIVEDATE=2011-07-16 | 31,198,267
Lebanon>DATE= URL=HTTP://WWW.CIA.GOV/LIBRARY/PUBLICATIONS/THE-WORLD-FACTBOOK/GEOS/LE.HTML, (2003)4,224,000 (2009) - (2008)
Syria>PUBLISHER=CIA.GOV ACCESSDATE=2011-04-23, -(2008)
Bahrain>PUBLISHER=BAHRAINI CENSUS 2010 DATE=2010-11-28 ARCHIVEURL=HTTPS://WEB.ARCHIVE.ORG/WEB/20110219111201/HTTP://WWW.CENSUS2010.GOV.BH/NEWS/NEWS_EN26.HTML |
Sri Lanka>|
Switzerland>YEAR=2010PUBLISHER=SWISS FEDERAL STATISTICAL OFFICE, NEUCHâTELDEADURL=YESARCHIVEDATE=2016-06-28|
Luxembourg>"Population: 511 840 habitants au 1er janvier 2011", Le Portail des statistiques: Grand-Duché de Luxembourg, 3 May 2011. {{fr icon}} Retrieved 4 May 2011. >|
Romania>ACCESSDATE = 26 MAY 2011|
Niue (associated state of New Zealand)> WORK=THE WORLD FACTBOOKCENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY> ACCESSDATE=2009-07-20, N/A (2008) -502
Tokelau (New Zealand territory)>| -3,778
Jamaica>|971,232
Argentina>|8,060,359
FIRST=GOVERNMENT OF FRANCEINSEE>ACCESSDATE=20 JANUARY 2011|
PUBLISHER=NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF STATISTICS (ITALY)>DATE=28 MARCH 2011LANGUAGE=IT, (2011) 80 (2008)
Mauritius>|514,000
Guatemala>|8,559,517
Cuba>Anuario Estadístico de Cuba 2009. Edición 2010 {{webarchive>url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100716124826weblink November 6}}, 2010. Note: An exchange rate of 1 CUC to 1.08 USD was used to convert GDP.weblink 77 (2008)
Barbados>Barbados: People. World Factbook of CIA >|18,589
Samoa>|
Sweden >|
Finland >|
Portugal >Pordata, "Base de Dados Portugal Contemporâneo". Accessed on March 7, 2011. (2011) >|
Austria >|
Libya >|
Peru >|
Guinea Bissau >|
Angola >DATE= |
Equatorial Guinea >|
Benin >|
Laos >PUBLISHER=US DEPT. OF STATEACCESSDATE=2011-01-20, (2011) 56 (2008)
Nepal >|
Iran >PUBLISHER=AMAR.ORG.IR ACCESSDATE=2011-07-13 ARCHIVEURL=HTTPS://WEB.ARCHIVE.ORG/WEB/20110722015233/HTTP://WWW.AMAR.ORG.IR/DEFAULT.ASPX?TABID=52 DF=, 71 (2008)
Canada >DATE=6 JULY 2009 ACCESSDATE=2011-04-17, 81 (2008)
United States >PUBLISHER=U.S. CENSUS BUREAU YEAR=2010 ARCHIVEURL=HTTPS://WEB.ARCHIVE.ORG/WEB/20111028061117/HTTP://2010.CENSUS.GOV/2010CENSUS/DATA/APPORTIONMENT-DENS-TEXT.PHP DF=, 78 (2008)
Uganda >|
Notes
* Eritrea left Ethiopia in 1991. † Split into the nations of Sudan and South Sudan during 2011. ‡ Japan and the Ryukyu Islands merged in 1972. # India and Sikkim merged in 1975.
{| class="wikitable" style="float: right; clear:right; margin-left: 10px"! colspan="2" align=center style="background-color: #cfb;" | Population growth 1990–2012 (%)CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion Population 1971–2014 IEA (PDF Page 74, marked page 72)----
Africa align="right"| 73.3%
----
Middle East align="right"| 68.2%
----
Asia (excl. China) align="right"| 42.8%
----
China align="right"| 19.0%
----
OECD Americas align="right"| 27.9%
----
Non-OECD Americas align="right"| 36.6%
----
OECD Europe align="right"| 11.5%
----
OECD Asia Oceania align="right"| 11.1%
----
Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia align="right"| -0.8%
(File:Overpopulation in Hồ Chí Minh City, Vietnam.JPG|thumb|250px|Thousands of scooters make their way through the city of Hồ Chí Minh, Vietnam.)

Growth by region

Population growth rates vary by world region, with the highest growth rates in Sub-Saharan Africa and the lowest in Europe. For example, from 1950 to 2010, Sub-Saharan Africa grew over three and a half times, from about 186 million to 856 million. On the other hand, Europe only increased by 35%, from 547 million in 1950 to 738 million in 2010. As a result of these varying population growths, Sub-Saharan Africa changed from 7.4% of world population in 1950 to 12.4% in 2010, while Europe declined from 22% to 11% in the same time period.JOURNAL, Shackman, Gene, Xun, Wang, Liu, Ya-Lin, Brief Review of World Demographic Trends Summary, Elsevier, 2080860, 2012-06-10,

Into the future

Image:Population curve.svg|thumb|250px|right|Estimated size of human population from 10,000 BCE to 2000 CE.]]right|250px|thumb|The majority of world population growth today is occurring in less developed countries.According to the UN's 2017 revision to its population projections, world population is projected to reach 11.2 billion by 2100 compared to 7.6 billion in 2017.WEB,weblink World Population Prospects - Population Division - United Nations,weblink In 2011, Indian economist Sanjeev Sanyal disputed the UN's figures and argued that birth rates will fall below replacement rates in the 2020s. According to his projections, population growth will be only sustained till the 2040s by rising longevity, but will peak below 9 bn by 2050. Conversely, a 2014 paper by demographers from several universities and the United Nations Population Division projected that the world's population would reach about 10.9 billion in 2100 and continue growing thereafter.JOURNAL, 10.1126/science.1257469, 25301627, World population stabilization unlikely this century, Science, 346, 6206, 234–7, September 14, 2014,weblink 1095-9203, Gerland, P., Raftery, A. E., Ev Ikova, H., Li, N., Gu, D., Spoorenberg, T., Alkema, L., Fosdick, B. K., Chunn, J., Lalic, N., Bay, G., Buettner, T., Heilig, G. K., Wilmoth, J., September 21, 2014, 4230924, 2014Sci...346..234G, One of its authors, Adrian Raftery, a University of Washington professor of statistics and of sociology, says "The consensus over the past 20 years or so was that world population, which is currently around 7 billion, would go up to 9 billion and level off or probably decline. We found there’s a 70 percent probability the world population will not stabilize this century. Population, which had sort of fallen off the world’s agenda, remains a very important issue."World population to keep growing this century, hit 11 billion by 2100. UWToday. September 18, 2014

See also

{{colbegin|colwidth=}} {{colend}}

References

{{reflist|30em}}

External links

  • World Population Prospects, Website of the United Nations Population Division
  • weblink" title="web.archive.org/web/20131004212919weblink">Probabilistic Population Projections, 2nd Revision, Website of the United Nations Population Division
  • weblink" title="archive.today/20071009065232weblink">2008 Essays on Population Growth Blue Planet United â€” Population Press
  • weblink" title="web.archive.org/web/20100707175239weblink">World population growth and trends 1950-2050 US Census
  • World population: focus on youth, Annual World Population Data Sheet, Population Reference Bureau
  • weblink" title="web.archive.org/web/20060813212234weblink">UN University annual "State of the Future" report, including updates on Millennium Project goals including balancing global population growth & resources
  • weblink" title="web.archive.org/web/20140728063241weblink">Population Growth Rate By Country, aggregated time series data from 1960 to present
  • BBC News - Birth rate 'harms poverty goals' - 08/12/06
  • Tsirel, S. V. 2004. On the Possible Reasons for the Hyperexponential Growth of the Earth Population. Mathematical Modeling of Social and Economic Dynamics / Ed. by M. G. Dmitriev and A. P. Petrov, pp. 367–9. Moscow: Russian State Social University, 2004.
  • WEB,weblink What stops population growth?, Rosling, Hans, 25 January 2009, Gapminder, 2009-07-06,
  • WEB,weblink Fertility rates cut in half since 1950 -- but the population is still growing, Nedelman, Michael, 9 November 2018, CNN, 2018-11-17,
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