Nuclear weapons and Israel

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Nuclear weapons and Israel
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{{pp-30-500|small=yes}}{{Use mdy dates|date=November 2013}}{{See also |Israel and weapons of mass destruction}}

HTTP://WWW.WISCONSINPROJECT.ORG/COUNTRIES/ISRAEL/NUKE.HTML WORK=WISCONSIN PROJECT ON NUCLEAR ARMS CONTROL ACCESSDATE=2015-05-03 ARCHIVEURL=HTTPS://WEB.ARCHIVE.ORG/WEB/20150429192508/HTTP://WWW.WISCONSINPROJECT.ORG/COUNTRIES/ISRAEL/NUKE.HTML DF=MDY, HTTP://WWW.WRMEA.ORG/WRMEA-ARCHIVES/95-WASHINGTON-REPORT-ARCHIVES-1982-1987/DECEMBER-1986/694-ISRAELS-NUCLEAR-ARSENAL.HTML>TITLE=WRMEA – MOHAMMED OMER WINS NORWEGIAN PEN PRIZE, Washington Report on Middle East Affairs, Farr Farr Vela Incident 1979){{Refn > group = "lower-alpha" Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists>BAS "If the 1979 flash was caused by a test, most experts agree it was probably an Israeli test"HTTPS://BOOKS.GOOGLE.COM/?ID=VAWAAAAAMBAJ&PG=PA1#V=ONEPAGE&Q&F=FALSE>PAGE=42JOURNAL=BULLETIN OF THE ATOMIC SCIENTISTSVOLUME=50DATE=JULY 1994, }}| first_fusion= Unknown| last_test= Unknown| largest_yield= Unknown| total_tests= Unknown| peak_stockpile=Avner Cohen, The Worst-Kept Secret: Israel's bargain with the Bomb (Columbia University Press, 2010), Table 1, page xxvii and page 82.HTTPS://WWW.INDEPENDENT.CO.UK/NEWS/WORLD/AMERICAS/COLIN-POWELL-LEAKED-EMAILS-NUCLEAR-WEAPONS-ISRAEL-IRAN-OBAMA-DEAL-A7311626.HTML LAST=REVESZ NEWSPAPER=THE INDEPENDENT ACCESSDATE=10 MAY 2018, {{Citation last = Brower journal = Jane's Intelligence Review number = 14 pages = 14–5}}.HTTPS://WWW.ARMSCONTROL.ORG/FACTSHEETS/NUCLEARWEAPONSWHOHASWHAT >TITLE=NUCLEAR WEAPONS: WHO HAS WHAT AT A GLANCE {{!, Arms Control Association}}{{Sfn 1998a URL= HTTP://WWW.IAEA.ORG/NEWSCENTER/TRANSCRIPTS/2004/ALAHRAM27072004.HTML AUTHORLINK = MOHAMED ELBARADEI INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY>DATE=JULY 27, 2004 My Promised Land, by Ari Shavit, (London 2014), page 188HTTP://WWW.GLOBALSECURITY.ORG/WMD/WORLD/ISRAEL/NUKE.HTMAUTHOR=JOHN PIKEWORK=FAS.ORG, | current_usable_stockpile= Unknown| current_usable_stockpile_megatonnage= Unknown name= "nukerange" Range data is from the Congressional Research Service which gives an estimation of "2,000–4,800–11,500" km. Other estimates include "4,800 to 6,500 km" and "more than 5,000 km".[Missile Survey: Ballistic and Cruise Missiles of Foreign Countriesweblink], Andrew Feickert, Congressional Research Service, March 5, 2004.HTTP://MISSILETHREAT.COM/MISSILES/JERICHO-123/#FNREF-3809-1 >TITLE=JERICHO 3 DATE=2012-03-26 DEADURL=YES ARCHIVEDATE=JANUARY 21, 2013 PUBLISHER=, 6 February 2015, }}| NPT_party= No}}{{nuclear weapons}}The State of Israel is widely believed to possess nuclear weapons. Estimates of Israel's stockpile range between 80 and 400 nuclear warheads,{{Citation | first = Kenneth S | last = Brower | title = A Propensity for Conflict: Potential Scenarios and Outcomes of War in the Middle East | journal = Jane's Intelligence Review | type = special report | number = 14 |date=February 1997 | pages = 14–5}}WEB,weblink Israel's Nuclear Weapon Capability: An Overview, Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control, August 1996, 2015-05-03, yes,weblink" title="">weblink April 29, 2015, mdy, WEB,weblink Nuclear Weapons: Who Has What at a Glance {{!, Arms Control Association |accessdate=2017-09-24 |}} and the country is believed to possess the ability to deliver them in several methods, including by aircraft; as submarine-launched cruise missiles; and the Jericho series of intermediate to intercontinental range ballistic missiles.WEB, Jericho 3,weblink, Center for Strategic and International Studies, 15 August 2017, WEB, Nuclear weapons – Israel, Federation of American Scientists,weblink July 1, 2007, Its first deliverable nuclear weapon is thought to have been completed in late 1966 or early 1967; which would make it the sixth country in the world to have developed them.WEB, Israel's Quest for Yellowcake: The Secret Argentina-Israel Connection, 1963–1966, Nuclear Proliferation International History Project,weblink Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, WEB, June 23, 2009, Israel, Nuclear Overview, profile, NTI,weblink yes,weblink" title="">weblink January 2, 2009, mdy-all, However, Israel maintains a policy of deliberate ambiguity, never officially denying nor admitting to having nuclear weapons, instead repeating over the years that "Israel will not be the first country to introduce nuclear weapons to the Middle East".NEWS,weblink Vague, Opaque and Ambiguous — Israel's Hush-Hush Nuclear Policy, Bronner, Ethan, The New York Times, October 13, 2010, March 6, 2012, NEWS,weblink The Quiet Bomb, Korb, Lawrence, The New York Times, November 1, 1998, March 6, 2012, WEB,weblink Office of the Historian, historical documents, Foreign Relations of the United States, 1964–1968, XX, Arab-Israeli Dispute, 1967–68, Document 349, Department of State, December 12, 1968, July 3, 2012, Israel has also declined to sign the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), despite international pressure to do so, saying that would be contrary to its national security interests.{{Citation | publisher = Shalom Life | date = September 21, 2010 | url =weblink | title = Israel Rejects Offer to Join UN Atomic Agency}}. Additionally, Israel developed the Begin Doctrine of counter-proliferation and preventive strikes, denying other regional actors the ability to acquire their own nuclear weapons. The Israeli Air Force conducted Operation Opera and Operation Orchard, destroying the Iraqi and Syrian nuclear reactors in 1981 and 2007, respectively, and the Stuxnet malware that severely damaged Iranian nuclear facilities in 2010 is thought to have been developed by Israel. As of 2019, Israel remains the only country in the Middle East believed to possess nuclear weapons. The Samson Option refers to Israel's deterrence strategy of massive retaliation with nuclear weapons as a "last resort" against a country whose military has invaded and/or destroyed much of Israel.Israel began to investigate the nuclear field soon after it declared independence in 1948 and, with French co-operation, secretly began building the Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center,{{Refn | group = "lower-alpha" | Then known simply as the Negev Nuclear Research Center}} a facility near Dimona housing a nuclear reactor and reprocessing plant in the late 1950s. The first extensive details of the weapons program came in October 5, 1986, with media coverage of revelations from Mordechai Vanunu, a technician formerly employed at the center. Vanunu was soon kidnapped by the Mossad and brought back to Israel, where he was sentenced to 18 years in prison for treason and espionage.NEWS,weblink Vanunu: Israel's nuclear telltale, BBC, April 20, 2004, October 17, 2012, [Vanunu blew] the whistle on Israel's secret nuclear activities....It was a decision that led him first to London and the Sunday Times - then to Rome and kidnapping by Israeli intelligence service Mossad - then back to Israel and a long jail sentence.,

Development history

Before Dimona, 1949–1956

Israel's first Prime Minister David Ben-Gurion was "nearly obsessed" with obtaining nuclear weapons to prevent the Holocaust from recurring. He stated, "What Einstein, Oppenheimer, and Teller, the three of them are Jews, made for the United States, could also be done by scientists in Israel, for their own people". Ben-Gurion decided to recruit Jewish scientists from abroad even before the end of the 1948 Arab–Israeli War that established Israel's independence. He and others, such as head of the Weizmann Institute of Science and defense ministry scientist Ernst David Bergmann, believed and hoped that Jewish scientists such as Oppenheimer and Teller would help Israel.JOURNAL, 30246784, Atomic Power to Israel's Rescue: French-Israeli Nuclear Cooperation, 1949–1957, Pinkus, Binyamin, Tlamim, Moshe, Israel Studies, Spring 2002, 7, 1, 104–38, 10.1353/is.2002.0006, In 1949 a unit of the Israel Defense Forces Science Corps, known by the Hebrew acronym HEMED GIMMEL, began a two-year geological survey of the Negev. While a preliminary study was initially prompted by rumors of petroleum fields, one objective of the longer two year survey was to find sources of uranium; some small recoverable amounts were found in phosphate deposits. That year Hemed Gimmel funded six Israeli physics graduate students to study overseas, including one to go to the University of Chicago and study under Enrico Fermi, who had overseen the world's first artificial and self-sustaining nuclear chain reaction.{{Sfn | Cohen | 1998a | p = 26}} In early 1952 Hemed Gimmel was moved from the IDF to the Ministry of Defense and was reorganized as the Division of Research and Infrastructure (EMET). That June, Bergmann was appointed by Ben-Gurion to be the first chairman of the Israel Atomic Energy Commission (IAEC).{{Sfn | Cohen | 1998a | pp = 30–1}}Hemed Gimmel was renamed Machon 4 during the transfer, and was used by Bergmann as the "chief laboratory" of the IAEC; by 1953, Machon 4, working with the Department of Isotope Research at the Weizmann Institute, developed the capability to extract uranium from the phosphate in the Negev and a new technique to produce indigenous heavy water.{{Sfn | Hersh | 1991 | p = 19}} The techniques were two years more advanced than American efforts. Bergmann, who was interested in increasing nuclear cooperation with the French, sold both patents to the Commissariat à l'énergie atomique (CEA) for 60 million francs. Although they were never commercialized, it was a consequential step for future French-Israeli cooperation.{{Sfn | Cohen | 1998a | pp = 33–4}} In addition, Israeli scientists probably helped construct the G-1 plutonium production reactor and UP-1 reprocessing plant at Marcoule. France and Israel had close relations in many areas. France was principal arms supplier for the new Jewish state, and as instability spread through French colonies in North Africa, Israel provided valuable intelligence obtained from contacts with Sephardi Jews in those countries.{{Sfn | Farr | 1999}} At the same time Israeli scientists were also observing France's own nuclear program, and were the only foreign scientists allowed to roam "at will" at the nuclear facility at Marcoule.{{Sfn | Hersh | 1991 | p = 30}} In addition to the relationships between Israeli and French Jewish and non-Jewish researchers, the French believed that cooperation with Israel could give them access to international Jewish nuclear scientists.{{r |is2002}}After U.S. President Dwight Eisenhower announced the Atoms for Peace initiative, Israel became the second country to sign on (following Turkey), and signed a peaceful nuclear cooperation agreement with the United States on July 12, 1955.{{Sfn | Cohen | 1998a | p = 44}} This culminated in a public signing ceremony on March 20, 1957, to construct a "small swimming-pool research reactor in Nachal Soreq", which would be used to shroud the construction of a much larger facility with the French at Dimona.{{Sfn | Cohen | 1998a | p = 65}}In 1986 Francis Perrin, French high-commissioner for atomic energy from 1951 to 1970 stated publicly that in 1949 Israeli scientists were invited to the Saclay Nuclear Research Centre, this cooperation leading to a joint effort including sharing of knowledge between French and Israeli scientists especially those with knowledge from the Manhattan Project.{{Sfn | Farr | 1999}} According to Lieutenant Colonel Warner D. Farr in a report to the USAF Counterproliferation Center while France was previously a leader in nuclear research "Israel and France were at a similar level of expertise after the war, and Israeli scientists could make significant contributions to the French effort. Progress in nuclear science and technology in France and Israel remained closely linked throughout the early fifties." Furthermore, according to Farr, "There were several Israeli observers at the French nuclear tests and the Israelis had 'unrestricted access to French nuclear test explosion data.'"{{Sfn | Farr | 1999}}

Dimona, 1956–1965


The French justified their decision to provide Israel a nuclear reactor by claiming it was not without precedent. In September 1955 Canada publicly announced that it would help the Indian government build a heavy-water research reactor, the CIRUS reactor, for "peaceful purposes".{{Sfn | Hersh | 1991 | p = 37}} When Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser nationalized the Suez Canal, France proposed Israel attack Egypt and invade the Sinai as a pretext for France and Britain to invade Egypt posing as "peacekeepers" with the true intent of seizing the Suez Canal (see Suez Crisis). In exchange, France would provide the nuclear reactor as the basis for the Israeli nuclear weapons program. Shimon Peres, sensing the opportunity on the nuclear reactor, accepted. On September 17, 1956, Peres and Bergmann reached a tentative agreement in Paris for the CEA to sell Israel a small research reactor. This was reaffirmed by Peres at the Protocol of Sèvres conference in late October for the sale of a reactor to be built near Dimona and for a supply of uranium fuel.{{Sfn | Cohen | 1998a | pp = 53–4}}Israel benefited from an unusually pro-Israel French government during this time. After the Suez Crisis led to the threat of Soviet intervention and the British and French were being forced to withdraw under pressure from the U.S., Ben-Gurion sent Peres and Golda Meir to France. During their discussions the groundwork was laid for France to build a larger nuclear reactor and chemical reprocessing plant, and Prime Minister Guy Mollet, ashamed at having abandoned his commitment to fellow socialists in Israel, supposedly told an aide, "I owe the bomb to them,"{{Sfn | Hersh | 1991 | pp = 42–43}} while General Paul Ely, Chief of the Defence Staff, said, "We must give them this to guarantee their security, it is vital." Mollet's successor Maurice Bourgès-Maunoury stated, "I gave you [Israelis] the bomb in order to prevent another Holocaust from befalling the Jewish people and so that Israel could face its enemies in the Middle East."{{r |is2002}}The French–Israeli relationship was finalized on October 3, 1957, in two agreements whose contents remain secret:{{r |is2002}} One political that declared the project to be for peaceful purposes and specified other legal obligations, and one technical that described a 24 megawatt EL-102 reactor. The one to actually be built was to be two to three times as large{{Sfn | Cohen | 1998a | p = 59}} and be able to produce 22 kilograms of plutonium a year.{{Sfn | Hersh | 1991 | pp = 45–6}} When the reactor arrived in Israel, Prime Minister Ben-Gurion declared that its purpose was to provide a pumping station to desalinate a billion gallons of seawater annually and turn the desert into an "agricultural paradise". Six of seven members of the Israel Atomic Energy Commission promptly resigned, protesting that the reactor was the precursor to "political adventurism which will unite the world against us".{{Citation | last = Thomas | first = Gordon | authorlink =Gordon Thomas (author)| title = Gideon's Spies: The Secret History of the Mossad | year = 1999| title-link = Gideon's Spies: The Secret History of the Mossad }}.


Before construction began it was determined that the scope of the project would be too large for the EMET and IAEC team, so Shimon Peres recruited Colonel Manes Pratt, then Israeli military attaché in Burma, to be the project leader. Building began in late 1957 or early 1958, bringing hundreds of French engineers and technicians to the Beersheba and Dimona area.{{Citation needed|date=June 2009}} In addition, thousands of newly immigrated Sephardi Jews were recruited to do digging; to circumvent strict labor laws, they were hired in increments of 59 days, separated by one day off.{{Sfn | Hersh | 1991 | pp = 60–1}}

Creation of LEKEM

By the late 1950s Shimon Peres had established and appointed a new intelligence service assigned to search the globe and clandestinely secure technology, materials and equipment needed for the program, by any means necessary. The new service would eventually be named LEKEM (pronounced LAKAM, the Hebrew acronym for ‘Science liaison Bureau’). Peres appointed IDF Internal Security Chief, Benjamin Blumberg, to the task. As head of the LEKEM, Blumberg would rise to become a key figure in Israel’s intelligence community, coordinating agents worldwide and securing the crucial components for the program.NEWS,weblinkweblink" title="">weblink yes, June 25, 2010, Netanyahu: Pollard acted as Israeli agent, Hoffman, Gil, June 22, 2010, Jerusalem Post, One of those agents, Arnon Milchan, was considered among the most successful and prolific agents who secured items such a uranium enrichment centrifuges and Krytron nuclear triggers, would latter become one of the most successful movie producers in Hollywood history., June 23, 2010, NEWS,weblink The New York Times, Michael, Cieply, New Book Tells Tale of Israeli Arms Dealer in Hollywood, July 17, 2011, "Lekem" Federation of American Scientists"Report of an Investigation Commission on the Pollard Case" Jewish Virtual Library

Rift between Israel and France

When Charles de Gaulle became French President in late 1958 he wanted to end French–Israeli nuclear cooperation, and said that he would not supply Israel with uranium unless the plant was opened to international inspectors, declared peaceful, and no plutonium was reprocessed.{{Sfn | Cohen | 1998a | pp = 73–4}} Through an extended series of negotiations, Shimon Peres finally reached a compromise with Foreign Minister Maurice Couve de Murville over two years later, in which French companies would be able to continue to fulfill their contract obligations and Israel would declare the project peaceful.{{Sfn | Cohen | 1998a | p = 75}} Due to this, French assistance did not end until 1966.{{Sfn | Hersh | 1991 | p = 70}} However the supply of uranium fuel was stopped earlier, in 1963. Despite this, a French uranium company based in Gabon may have sold Israel uranium in 1965. The US government launched an investigation but was unable to determine if such a sale had taken place.

British aid

Top secret British documentsBOOK, Atomic Activities in Israel, UK Cabinet Submission from Joint Intelligence Bureau, Cabinet Office, Government of the United Kingdom, July 17, 1961, JIC/1103/61,weblinkweblink yes, February 5, 2007, July 2, 2006, BOOK, Secret Atomic Activities in Israel, UK Cabinet Submission from Joint Intelligence Bureau, Cabinet Office, Government of the United Kingdom, March 27, 1961, JIC/519/61,weblinkweblink yes, February 5, 2007, July 2, 2006, obtained by BBC Newsnight show that Britain made hundreds of secret shipments of restricted materials to Israel in the 1950s and 1960s. These included specialist chemicals for reprocessing and samples of fissile material—uranium-235 in 1959, and plutonium in 1966, as well as highly enriched lithium-6, which is used to boost fission bombs and fuel hydrogen bombs.Secret sale of UK plutonium to Israel, BBC, March 10, 2006 The investigation also showed that Britain shipped 20 tons of heavy water directly to Israel in 1959 and 1960 to start up the Dimona reactor.{{Citation | url =weblink | title = How Britain helped Israel get the bomb | first = Michael | last = Crick | author-link = Michael Crick | newspaper = Newsnight | publisher = BBC | place = United Kingdom}}. The transaction was made through a Norwegian front company called Noratom, which took a 2% commission on the transaction. Britain was challenged about the heavy water deal at the International Atomic Energy Agency after it was exposed on Newsnight in 2005. British Foreign Minister Kim Howells claimed this was a sale to Norway. But a former British intelligence officer who investigated the deal at the time confirmed that this was really a sale to Israel and the Noratom contract was just a charade.NEWS, Meirion, Jones, March 13, 2006, Britain's dirty secret, July 2, 2006,weblink New Statesman, The Foreign Office finally admitted in March 2006 that Britain knew the destination was Israel all along.NEWS, Statement from the Foreign Office, Newsnight, March 9, 2006,weblink July 2, 2006, BBC, Israel admits running the Dimona reactor with Norway's heavy water since 1963. French engineers who helped build Dimona say the Israelis were expert operators, so only a relatively small portion of the water was lost during the years since the reactor was first put into operation.{{Citation | url =weblink | title = Norway's Heavy Water Scandals | publisher = Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control | date = September 14, 1988 | accessdate = June 4, 2011 | type = editorial}}.


In 1961, the Israeli Prime Minister David Ben-Gurion informed the Canadian Prime Minister John Diefenbaker that a pilot plutonium-separation plant would be built at Dimona. British intelligence concluded from this and other information that this "can only mean that Israel intends to produce nuclear weapons". The nuclear reactor at Dimona went critical in 1962.{{Sfn | Farr | 1999}} After Israel's rupture with France, the Israeli government reportedly reached out to Argentina. The Argentine government agreed to sell Israel yellowcake (uranium oxide).'Argentina sold Israel yellowcake uranium in 1960s' – The Jerusalem PostReport: Argentina sold yellowcake to Israel for nuclear program – Israel Hayom Between 1963 and 1966, about 90 tons of yellowcake were allegedly shipped to Israel from Argentina in secret.WEB,weblink The Israel-Argentina Yellowcake Connection, George Washington University, National Security Archive, June 25, 2013, August 6, 2013, By 1965 the Israeli reprocessing plant was completed and ready to convert the reactor's fuel rods into weapons grade plutonium.{{Sfn | Hersh | p = 130}}


The exact costs for the construction of the Israeli nuclear program are unknown, though Peres later said that the reactor cost $80 million in 1960,{{Sfn | Cohen | 1998a | p = 70}} half of which was raised by foreign Jewish donors, including many American Jews. Some of these donors were given a tour of the Dimona complex in 1968.{{Sfn | Hersh | 1991 | pp = 66–7}}

Weapons production, 1966–present

File:Nuclear reactor in dimona (israel).jpg|thumb|right|Completed Dimona complex as seen by US Corona satellite on November 11, 1968]]Israel is believed to have begun full-scale production of nuclear weapons following the 1967 Six-Day War, although it had built its first operational nuclear weapon by December 1966. A Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) report from early 1967 stated that Israel had the materials to construct a bomb in six to eight weeks{{Sfn |Cohen |1998 |p=298}} and some authors suggest that Israel had two crude bombs ready for use during the war.{{Sfn|Farr|1999}} According to US journalist Seymour Hersh, everything was ready for production at this time save an official order to do so. Israel crossed the nuclear threshold on the eve of the Six-Day War in May 1967. "[Prime Minister Levi] Eshkol, according to a number of Israeli sources, secretly ordered the Dimona [nuclear reactor] scientists to assemble two crude nuclear devices. He placed them under the command of Brigadier General Yitzhak Yaakov, the chief of research and development in Israel's Defense Ministry. One official said the operation was referred to as Spider because the nuclear devices were inelegant contraptions with appendages sticking out. The crude atomic bombs were readied for deployment on trucks that could race to the Egyptian border for detonation in the event Arab forces overwhelmed Israeli defenses."WEB,weblink Israel's Nuclear Weapons Program and Lessons for Iran, Council on Foreign Relations, June 25, 2017, Another CIA report from 1968 states that "Israel might undertake a nuclear weapons program in the next several years."WEB,weblink Special National Intelligence Estimate 11-12-68: Emplacement of Weapons of Mass Destruction on the Seabed, August 15, 1968, Central Intelligence Agency, yes,weblink" title="">weblink November 5, 2010, mdy-all, Moshe Dayan, then Defense Minister, believed that nuclear weapons were cheaper and more practical than indefinitely growing Israel's conventional forces.NEWS,weblink Violent Week: The Politics of Death, March 4, 2011, April 12, 1976, Time, He convinced the Labor Party's finance minister Pinchas Sapir of the value of commencing the program by giving him a tour of the Dimona site in early 1968, and soon after Dayan decided that he had the authority to order the start of full production of four to five nuclear warheads a year. Hersh stated that it is widely believed that the words "Never Again" were welded, in English and Hebrew, onto the first warhead.{{Sfn|Hersh|1991|p=179–80}}In order to produce plutonium the Israelis needed a large supply of uranium ore. In 1968, the Mossad purchased 200 tons from Union Minière du Haut Katanga, a Belgian mining company, on the pretense of buying it for an Italian chemical company in Milan. Once the uranium was shipped from Antwerp it was transferred to an Israeli freighter at sea and brought to Israel. The orchestrated disappearance of the uranium, named Operation Plumbat, became the subject of the 1978 book The Plumbat Affair.{{Sfn|Hersh|1991|p=181}}Estimates as to how many warheads Israel has built since the late 1960s have varied, mainly based on the amount of fissile material that could have been produced and on the revelations of Israeli nuclear technician Mordechai Vanunu.File:Vanunu-glove-box-bomb-components.jpg|thumb|left|Mordechai Vanunu's photograph of a Negev Nuclear Research CenterNegev Nuclear Research CenterBy 1969, U.S. Defense Secretary Melvin Laird believed that Israel might have a nuclear weapon that year.NEWS, Cohen, Avner, Burr, William, Israel crosses the threshold, May–June 2006, 22–30, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists,weblink WEB, Melvin, Laird, Melvin Laird, Stopping the introduction of nuclear weapons into the Middle East, Memorandum to the secretary of state, National Security Archive, March 17, 1969,weblink July 2, 2006, Later that year, U.S. President Richard Nixon in a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Golda Meir pressed Israel to "make no visible introduction of nuclear weapons or undertake a nuclear test program", so maintaining a policy of nuclear ambiguity.WEB, Henry, Kissinger, Henry Kissinger, Discussions with the Israelis on nuclear matters, Memorandum for the President, National Security Archive, October 7, 1969,weblink July 2, 2006, Before the Yom Kippur War, Peres nonetheless wanted Israel to publicly demonstrate its nuclear capability to discourage an Arab attack, and fear of Israeli nuclear weapons may have discouraged Arab military strategy during the war from being as aggressive as it could have been.{{Sfn|Farr|1999}}The CIA believed that Israel's first bombs may have been made with highly enriched uranium stolen in the mid-1960s from the U.S. Navy nuclear fuel plant operated by the Nuclear Materials and Equipment Corporation, where sloppy material accounting would have masked the theft.WEB,weblink Israel's Bomb, Victor (former Commissioner U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission), Gilinsky, The New York Review of Books, May 13, 2004, December 8, 2007, NEWS, image, JPEG, Iran affairs,weblink CIA said in 1974 Israel had A-bombs, David, Burnham, The New York Times, January 27, 1978, A5, December 8, 2007, By 1974, the U.S. intelligence community believed Israel had stockpiled a small number of fission weapons,BOOK,weblink Special National Intelligence Estimate, PDF, Prospects for Further Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, CIA, August 23, 1974, SNIE 4-1-74, January 20, 2008, and by 1979 were perhaps in a position to test a more advanced small tactical nuclear weapon or thermonuclear weapon trigger design.BOOK, The 22 September 1979 Event, Interagency Intelligence Memorandum, MORI DocID: 1108245, 5, 9 (paragraphs 4, 26), National Security Archive, December 1979,weblink November 1, 2006, The CIA believed that the number of Israeli nuclear weapons stayed from 10 to 20 from 1974 until the early 1980s. Vanunu's information in October 1986 said that based on a reactor operating at 150 megawatts and a production of 40 kg of plutonium per year, Israel had 100 to 200 nuclear devices. Vanunu revealed that between 1980 and 1986 Israel attained the ability to build thermonuclear weapons.NEWS, Mordechai Vanunu: The Sunday Times articles, The Times, April 21, 2004,weblink July 2, 2006, London, yes,weblink" title="">weblink May 13, 2006, By the mid 2000s estimates of Israel's arsenal ranged from 75 to 400 nuclear warheads.{{Sfn|Brower|1997}}Several reports have surfaced claiming that Israel has some uranium enrichment capability at Dimona. Vanunu asserted that gas centrifuges were operating in Machon 8, and that a laser enrichment plant was being operated in Machon 9 (Israel holds a 1973 patent on laser isotope separation). According to Vanunu, the production-scale plant has been operating since 1979–80.NEWS,weblink The truth about Israel's secret nuclear arsenal, Julian, Borger, The Guardian, 15 January 2014, 22 March 2017, REPORT,weblink Estimating Plutonium Production at Israel's Dimona Reactor, Alexander Glaser, Marvin Miller, Princeton University, 2011, 22 March 2017, If highly enriched uranium is being produced in substantial quantities, then Israel's nuclear arsenal could be much larger than estimated solely from plutonium production.WEB,weblink December 10, 1997, Israel's Nuclear Weapons Program, Nuclear Weapon Archive, October 7, 2007, In 1991 alone, as the Soviet Union dissolved, nearly 20 top Jewish Soviet scientists reportedly emigrated to Israel, some of whom had been involved in operating nuclear power plants and planning for the next generation of Soviet reactors. In September 1992, German intelligence was quoted in the press as estimating that 40 top Jewish Soviet nuclear scientists had emigrated to Israel since 1989.{{Citation |url= |title=Israel's Nuclear Shopping List |date=July–August 1996 |journal=The Risk Report |volume=2 |number=4 |publisher=Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control |accessdate=March 29, 2012}}In a 2010 interview, Uzi Eilam, former head of the Israeli Atomic Energy Commission, told the Israeli daily Maariv that the nuclear reactor in Dimona had been through extensive improvements and renovations and is now functioning as new, with no safety problems or hazard to the surrounding environment or the region.{{Citation |first=Sara |last=Leibovitz-Dar |title=This secret is fiction |newspaper=Maariv-Amusaf Le'Shabat |date=May 21, 2010 |pages=10–3 |url= |publisher=NRG}}.

Nuclear testing

According to Lieutenant Colonel Warner D. Farr in a report to the US Air Force Counterproliferation Center, much lateral proliferation happened between pre-nuclear Israel and France, stating "the French nuclear test in 1960 made two nuclear powers, not one—such was the depth of collaboration" and that "the Israelis had unrestricted access to French nuclear test explosion data," minimizing the need for early Israeli testing, although this cooperation cooled following the success of the French tests.{{Sfn|Farr|1999}}In June 1976, a West Germany army magazine, Wehrtechnik ("military technology"), claimed that Western intelligence reports documented Israel conducting an underground test in the Negev in 1963. The book Nuclear Weapons in the Middle East: Dimensions and Responsibilities by Taysir Nashif cites other reports that on November 2, 1966, the country may have carried out a non-nuclear test, speculated to be zero yield or implosion in nature in the Israeli Negev desert.{{Sfn|Farr|1999}}On September 22, 1979, Israel may have been involved in a possible nuclear bomb test, also known as the Vela Incident, in the southern Indian Ocean. A committee was set up under then-U.S. president Jimmy Carter, headed by Professor Jack Ruina of MIT. Most of the committee's members assumed that South African navy vessels had sailed out of Simonstown port, near Cape Town, to a secret location in the Indian Ocean, where they conducted the nuclear test. The committee defined the nuclear device tested as compact and especially clean, emitting little radioactive fallout, making it very nearly impossible to pinpoint. Another committee assessment concluded a cannon had fired a nuclear artillery shell, and the detected test was focused on a small tactical nuclear weapon. After renouncing their nuclear weapons program South Africa was revealed to only have six large, primitive, aircraft-deliverable atomic bombs with a seventh being built, but no sophisticated miniaturized devices of the artillery shell size.WEB,weblink Did Israel play a role in 1979 South Africa nuclear test?, August 2, 2009, Haaretz, In what they called the "Last Secret of the Six-Day War", The New York Times reported that in the days before the 1967 Six-Day War Israel planned to insert a team of paratroopers by helicopter into the Sinai set up and remote detonate a nuclear bomb on command from the prime minister and military command on a mountaintop as a warning to belligerent surrounding states. However, Israel won the war before the test could even be set up. Retired Israeli brigadier general Itzhak Yaakov referred to this operation as the Israeli Samson Option.WEB,weblink 'Last Secret' of 1967 War: Israel's Doomsday Plan for Nuclear Display, William J., Broad, David E., Sanger, June 3, 2017, June 5, 2017, New York Times, Pioneering American nuclear weapons designer Theodore Taylor commented on the uncertainties involved in the process of boosting small fission weapons and the thermonuclear designs seen in the Vanunu leaked photographs. He stated that these designs required more than theoretical analysis for full confidence in the weapons' performance. Taylor therefore concluded that Israel had "unequivocally" tested an advanced series miniaturized nuclear device.WEB,weblink Israel Aims to Improve Missile Accuracy, Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control, June 1995, 2014-04-10, yes,weblink" title="">weblink October 3, 2014, mdy,


Negev Nuclear Research Center (Dimona)

The Israeli nuclear program was first revealed on December 13, 1960, in a Time magazine article,"The Atom: The Nth Power", Time, December 19, 1960. Retrieved July 2, 2007. which said that a non-Communist non-NATO country had made an "atomic development". On December 16, the Daily Express in London revealed this country to be Israel, and on December 18, US Atomic Energy Commission chairman John McCone appeared on Meet the Press to officially confirm the Israeli construction of a nuclear reactor and announce his resignation.{{Sfn | Hersh | 1991 | p = 72}} The following day The New York Times, with the help of McCone, revealed that France was assisting Israel.{{Sfn | Cohen | 1998a | pp = 88–9}}The news led Ben-Gurion to make the only statement by an Israeli Prime Minister about Dimona. On December 21 he announced to the Knesset that the government was building a 24 megawatt reactor "which will serve the needs of industry, agriculture, health, and science", and that it "is designed exclusively for peaceful purposes".{{Sfn | Cohen | 1991 | p = 91}} Bergmann, who was chairman of the Israel Atomic Energy Commission from 1954 to 1966, however said that "There is no distinction between nuclear energy for peaceful purposes or warlike ones"{{Citation | url =weblink | title = One on One: Existential espionage | newspaper = Jerusalem Post | accessdate = June 4, 2011 }}{{dead link|date=February 2018 |bot=InternetArchiveBot |fix-attempted=yes }}. and that "We shall never again be led as lambs to the slaughter".BOOK, Michael, Gallagher, Israel and Palestine,weblink June 4, 2011, July 30, 2005, Black Rabbit Books, 978-1-58340-605-2, 26–,

Weapons production

The first public revelation of Israel's nuclear capability (as opposed to development program) came from NBC News, which reported in January 1969 that Israel decided "to embark on a crash course program to produce a nuclear weapon" two years previously, and that they possessed or would soon be in possession of such a device.{{Sfn | Cohen | 1998a | p = 327}} This was initially dismissed by Israeli and U.S. officials, as well as in an article in The New York Times. Just one year later on July 18, The New York Times made public for the first time that the U.S. government believed Israel to possess nuclear weapons or to have the "capacity to assemble atomic bombs on short notice".{{Sfn | Cohen | 1998a | p = 338}} Israel reportedly assembled 13 bombs during the Yom Kippur War as a last defense against total defeat, and kept them usable after the war.{{r |time19760412}}The first extensive details of the weapons program came in the London Sunday Times on October 5, 1986, which published information provided by Mordechai Vanunu, a technician formerly employed at the Negev Nuclear Research Center near Dimona. For publication of state secrets Vanunu was kidnapped by the Mossad in Rome, brought back to Israel, and sentenced to 18 years in prison for treason and espionage. Although there had been much speculation prior to Vanunu's revelations that the Dimona site was creating nuclear weapons, Vanunu's information indicated that Israel had also built thermonuclear weapons.Theodore Taylor, a former U.S. weapon designer leading the field in small, efficient nuclear weapons, reviewed the 1986 leaks and photographs of the Israeli nuclear program by Mordechai Vanunu in detail. Taylor concluded that Israel's thermonuclear weapon designs appeared to be "less complex than those of other nations," and as of 1986 "not capable of producing yields in the megaton or higher range." Nevertheless, "they may produce at least several times the yield of fission weapons with the same quantity of plutonium or highly enriched uranium." In other words, Israel could "boost" the yield of its nuclear fission weapons. According to Taylor, the uncertainties involved in the process of boosting required more than theoretical analysis for full confidence in the weapons' performance. Taylor therefore concluded that Israel had "unequivocally" tested a miniaturized nuclear device. The Institute for Defense Analyses (IDA) concluded after reviewing the evidence given by Vanunu that as of 1987, "the Israelis are roughly where the U.S. was in the fission weapon field in about 1955 to 1960." and would require supercomputers or parallel computing clusters to refine their hydrogen bomb designs for improved yields without testing, though noting they were already then developing the computer code base required. Israel was first permitted to import US built supercomputers beginning in November 1995.According to a 2013 report by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, which cited US Defense Intelligence Agency sources, Israel began the production of nuclear weapons in 1967, when it produced its first two nuclear bombs. According to the report's calculations, Israel produced nuclear weapons at an average rate of two per year, and stopped production in 2004. The report stated that Israel has 80 nuclear warheads and has enough fissile material to produce 190 more.WEB,weblink Israel has 80 nuclear warheads, report says, The Times of Israel, WEB,weblink Report: Israel halted nuclear warheads production in 2004, ynet, In 2014, former US president Jimmy Carter stated that "Israel has, what, 300 or more, nobody knows exactly how many" nuclear weapons.Carter says Israel has stockpile of over 300 nuclear bombs by Yoni Hirsch and Israel Hayom Staff, Israel Hayom, April 14, 2014

South African documents

{{see also|Israel–South Africa relations|South Africa and weapons of mass destruction}}In 2010, The Guardian released South African government documents that it alleged confirmed the existence of Israel's nuclear arsenal. According to the newspaper, the documents are minutes taken by the South African side of alleged meetings between senior officials from the two countries in 1975. The Guardian alleged that these documents reveal that Israel had offered to sell South Africa nuclear weapons that year. The documents appeared to confirm information disclosed by a former South African naval commander Dieter Gerhardt – jailed in 1983 for spying for the Soviet Union, who said there was an agreement between Israel and South Africa involving an offer by Israel to arm eight Jericho missiles with atomic bombs.NEWS, Revealed: how Israel offered to sell South Africa nuclear weapons,weblink The Guardian, May 24, 2010, London, Chris, McGreal, May 24, 2010, NEWS, The memos and minutes that confirm Israel's nuclear stockpile,weblink The Guardian, May 24, 2010, London, Chris, McGreal, May 24, 2010, Waldo Stumpf—who led a project to dismantle South Africa's nuclear weapons programVon Wielligh, N. & von Wielligh-Steyn, L. (2015). The Bomb – South Africa’s Nuclear Weapons Programme. Pretoria: Litera.—doubted Israel or South Africa would have contemplated a deal seriously, saying that Israel could not have offered to sell nuclear warheads to his country due to the serious international complications that such a deal could entail. Shimon Peres, then Defense Minister (later Israeli President), rejected the newspaper's claim that the negotiations took place. He also asserted that The Guardian’s conclusions were "based on the selective interpretation of South African documents and not on concrete facts".{{Citation | url =weblink | newspaper = Ynet news | date = May 24, 2010 | title = S. African official doubts nuclear arms sale offer | accessdate = June 4, 2011}}.Avner Cohen, author of Israel and the Bomb and The Worst-Kept Secret: Israel's Bargain with the Bomb, said "Nothing in the documents suggests there was an actual offer by Israel to sell nuclear weapons to the regime in Pretoria."NEWS,weblink London, The Independent, Avner Cohen: Yitzhak Rabin would have opposed sale of nuclear weapons, May 25, 2010,

US pressure

The United States was concerned over possible Israeli nuclear proliferation. US intelligence began to notice the Dimona reactor shortly after construction began, when American U-2 spy planes overflew the reactor,WEB,weblink Policy Library, NRDC, June 5, 2017, leading to a diplomatic clash. In 1960, the outgoing Eisenhower administration asked the Israeli government for an explanation for the mysterious construction near Dimona. Israel's response was that the site was a future textile factory, but that no inspection would be allowed. When Ben-Gurion visited Washington in 1960, he held a series of meetings with State Department officials, and was bluntly told that for Israel to possess nuclear weapons would affect the balance of power in the region. After John F. Kennedy took office as US President in 1961, he put continuous pressure on Israel to open the plant to American inspection. Reportedly, every high-level meeting and communication between the US and Israeli governments contained a demand for an inspection of Dimona. To increase pressure, Kennedy denied Ben-Gurion a meeting at the White House – when they met in May 1961, it was at the Waldorf Astoria Hotel in New York. The meeting itself was dominated by this issue. Ben-Gurion was evasive on the issue for two years, in the face of persistent US demands for an inspection. Finally, in a personal letter dated May 18, 1963, Kennedy threatened Israel with total isolation unless inspectors were allowed into Dimona. However, Ben-Gurion resigned as Prime Minister shortly afterward. His successor, Levi Eshkol, received a similar letter from Kennedy.When Ben-Gurion said no to JFK – The Jerusalem PostIsrael eventually accepted an inspection, and Kennedy made two concessions – the US would sell Israel Hawk anti-aircraft missiles after having refused to sell Israel any major weapon systems for years. In addition, the US government agreed to the Israeli demand that the inspections would be carried out by an all-American team which would schedule its visits weeks in advance, rather than the IAEA.In 1964, the US government tried to prevent Argentina's sale of yellowcake to Israel, with no success.WEB,weblink Israel's Secret Uranium Buy, Foreign Policy, Allegedly, because Israel knew the schedule of the inspectors' visits, it was able to disguise the true purpose of the reactor. The inspectors eventually reported that their inspections were useless, due to Israeli restrictions on what parts of the facility they could investigate. According to British writer and intelligence expert Gordon Thomas, former Mossad agent Rafi Eitan told him how the inspectors were fooled:A bogus control center was built over the real one at Dimona, complete with fake control panels and computer-lined gauges that gave a credible impression of measuring the output of a reactor engaged in an irrigation scheme to turn the Negev into a lush pastureland. The area containing the "heavy" water smuggled from France and Norway was placed off-limits to the inspectors "for safety reasons". The sheer volume of heavy water would have been proof the reactor was being readied for a very different purpose.In 1968, the CIA stated in a top-secret National Intelligence Estimate that Israel had nuclear weapons. This assessment was given to President Lyndon B. Johnson. The basis for this claim was the CIA's belief, although never proven, that the uranium that went missing in the Apollo Affair had been diverted to Israel (Seymour Hersh claims that during the plant decommissioning nearly all of the missing uranium was recovered trapped in the facility pipes or accounted for.),Hersh, Seymour (1991). The Samson Option: Israel's Nuclear Arsenal and America's Foreign Policy. Random House. pp. 243, 250, 252, 255. {{ISBN|0-394-57006-5}}. as well as evidence gathered from NSA electronic eavesdropping on Israeli communications, which proved that the Israeli Air Force had engaged in practice bombing runs that only made sense for the delivery of nuclear weapons.In 1969, the year Richard Nixon became President, the US government terminated the inspections. According to US government documents declassified in 2007, the Nixon administration was concerned with Israel's nuclear program, worrying that it could set off a regional nuclear arms race, with the Soviet Union possibly granting the Arab states a nuclear guarantee. In a memorandum dated July 19, 1969, National Security Adviser Henry Kissinger warned that "The Israelis, who are one of the few peoples whose survival is genuinely threatened, are probably more likely than almost any other country to actually use their nuclear weapons." However, Kissinger warned that attempting to force Israel to disarm could have consequences, writing that "Israel will not take us seriously on the nuclear issue unless they believe we are prepared to withhold something they very much need" (Kissinger was referring to a pending sale of F-4 Phantom fighter jets to Israel). Kissinger wrote that "if we withhold the Phantoms and they make this fact public in the United States, enormous political pressure will be mounted on us. We will be in an indefensible position if we cannot state why we are withholding the planes. Yet if we explain our position publicly, we will be the ones to make Israel’s possession of nuclear weapons public with all the international consequences this entails." Among the suggestions Kissinger presented to Nixon was the idea of the United States adopting a policy of "nuclear ambiguity", or pretending not to know about Israel's nuclear program.Israel's Nuclear Arsenal Vexed Nixon – The New York Times, November 29, 2007According to Israeli historian Avner Cohen, author of Israel and the Bomb, historical evidence indicates that when Nixon met with Israeli Prime Minister Golda Meir at the White House in September 1969, they reached a secret understanding, where Israel would keep its nuclear program secret and refrain from carrying out nuclear tests, and the United States would tolerate Israel's possession of nuclear weapons and not press it to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.


The State of Israel has never made public any details of its nuclear capability or arsenal. The following is a history of estimates by many different sources on the size and strength of Israel's nuclear arsenal. Estimates may vary due to the amount of material Israel has on store versus assembled weapons, and estimates as to how much material the weapons actually use, as well as the overall time in which the reactor was operated.
  • 1948 – Israel begins recruiting Jewish nuclear scientists and forming scientific institutes during war of independence for a nuclear weapons program.Pinkus, Binyamin; Tlamim, Moshe (Spring 2002). "Atomic Power to Israel's Rescue: French-Israeli Nuclear Cooperation, 1949–1957". Israel Studies. 7 (1): 104–38. {{doi|10.1353/is.2002.0006}}. {{JSTOR|30246784}}
  • 1949 – Israeli scientists invited to participate in French nuclear program.{{Sfn|Farr|1999}}
  • 1957 – Dimona nuclear facility construction begins with French assistance.{{Sfn|Farr|1999}}
  • 1960 – First French nuclear tests, Israel scientists participated alongside French with access to all test data;{{Sfn|Farr|1999}} Charles de Gaulle begins to disconnect French program from Israelweblink Federation of American Scientists report on Israeli nuclear program
  • 1961 – Dimona nuclear facility operational.{{Sfn|Farr|1999}}
  • 1963 – Alleged underground nuclear test in the Negev desert.{{Sfn|Farr|1999}}June 1976, West Germany army magazine 'Wehrtechnik'
  • 1966 – Alleged underground nuclear test in the Negev desert, possibly zero yield or implosion type;Nuclear Weapons in the Middle East: Dimensions and Responsibilities by Taysir Nashif first fully weaponized fission designed for aircraft delivery available for activation.Burrows & Windrem 1994, p. 302.
  • 1967 – (Six-Day War) – 2 bombs;{{Sfn|Burrows|Windrem|1994|p=280}}{{Sfn|Cohen|1998a|pp=273–4}} 13 bombs.Time, April 12, 1976, quoted in Weissman and Krosney, op. cit., 107.
  • 1969 – 5–6 bombs of 19 kilotons yield each.Tahtinen, Dale R., The Arab-Israel Military Balance Today (Washington, DC: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, 1973), 34.
  • 1973 – (Yom Kippur War) – 13 bombs; 20 nuclear missiles, a suitcase bomb.{{Sfn|Burrows|Windrem|1994|p=302}}
  • 1974 – 3 capable artillery battalions each with twelve 175 mm tubes and a total of 108 warheads;Kaku, op. cit., 66.{{Sfn|Hersh|1991|p=216}} 10 bombs.Valéry, op. cit., 807–9.
  • 1976 – 10–20 nuclear weapons.{{Refn|group="lower-alpha"|Data from the CIA.{{Sfn|Weissman|Krosney|1981|p=109}}}}
  • 1979 – Vela Incident, satellite detects possible advanced miniaturized and very clean nuclear test in Indian Ocean often attributed to Israel.
  • 1980 – 100–200 bombs.Israel Profile. Retrieved on June 4, 2011.Ottenberg, Michael, "Estimating Israel's Nuclear Capabilities", Command, 30 (October 1994), 6–8.
  • 1984 – 12–31 atomic bombs;Pry, op. cit., 75. 31 plutonium bombs and 10 uranium bombs.Pry, op. cit., 111.
  • 1985 – At least 100 nuclear bombs.Data from NBC Nightly News, quoted in Milhollin, op. cit., 104.{{Sfn|Burrows|Windrem|1994|p=308}}
  • 1986 – 100 to 200 fission bombs and a number of fusion bombs;Data from Vanunu quoted in Milhollin, op. cit., 104. Vanunu leaks Dimona facility secrets, at US's level in fission and boosted weapons as of 1955 to 1960, it would require supercomputers to improve their "less complex" hydrogen bombs without nuclear tests, they had "unequivocally" tested a miniaturized nuclear device.
  • 1991 – 50–60 to 200–300.Harkavy, Robert E. "After the Gulf War: The Future of the Israeli Nuclear Strategy", The Washington Quarterly (Summer 1991), 164.
  • 1992 – more than 200 bombs;{{Sfn|Burrows|Windrem|1994|p=308}} estimated 40 top nuclear weapons scientists immigrated to Israel from ex-USSR.
  • 1994 – 64–112 bombs (5 kg/warhead);Albright, David, Berkhout, Frans and Walker, William, Plutonium and Highly Enriched Uranium 1996. World Inventories, Capabilities, and Policies (New York: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute and Oxford University Press, 1997), 262–63. 50 nuclear-tipped Jericho missiles, 200 total;Hough, Harold, "Israel's Nuclear Infrastructure", Jane's Intelligence Review 6, no. 11 (November 1994),508. 300 nuclear weapons.Critical Mass: the Dangerous Race for Super-weapons in a Fragmenting World, New York, 1994, p.308
  • 1995 – 66–116 bombs (at 5 kg/warhead); 70–80 bombs;{{Sfn|Spector|McDonough|Medeiros|1995|p=135}} "a complete repertoire" (neutron bombs, nuclear mines, suitcase bombs, submarine-borne).{{Sfn|Burrows|Windrem|1994|pp=283–4}}
  • 1996 – 60–80 plutonium weapons, maybe more than 100 assembled, ER variants, variable yields.{{Sfn|Cordesman|1996|p=234}}
  • 1997 – More than 400 deliverable thermonuclear and nuclear weapons.{{Sfn|Brower|1997}}
  • 2002 – Between 75 and 200 weapons.Norris, Robert S., William Arkin, Hans M. Kristensen, and Joshua Handler. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 58:5 (September/October 2002): 73–75. Israeli nuclear forces
  • 2004 – 82.Scarborough, Rowan. Rumsfeld's War: The Untold Story of America's Anti-Terrorist Commander
  • 2006 – More than 185: the British parliament's Defence Select Committee reported that Israel possessed more warheads than the UK's 185.WEB,weblink The UK's Strategic Nuclear Deterrent, House of Commons, Select Committee on Defence Eighth Report, 20 June 2006, 9 May 2018,
  • 2006 – Federation of American Scientists believes that Israel "could have produced enough plutonium for at least 100 nuclear weapons, but probably not significantly more than 200 weapons".
  • 2008 – 150 or more nuclear weapons.BBC News. "Israel 'has 150 nuclear weapons'", May 26, 2008. Statement by former United States president Jimmy Carter.
  • 2008 – 80 intact warheads, of which 50 are re-entry vehicles for delivery by ballistic missiles, and the rest bombs for delivery by aircraft. Total military plutonium stockpile 340–560 kg.BOOK, SIPRI Yearbook 2008: Armaments, Disarmament, and International Security, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Oxford University Press, United States, 2008, 397, 978-0-19-954895-8,weblink
  • 2009 – Estimates of weapon numbers differ sharply with plausible estimates varying from 60 to 400.{{Citation|first=Abdullah|last=Toukan|format=PDF|url=|title=Study on a Possible Israeli Strike on Iran's Nuclear Development Facilities|publisher=CSIS|date=March 14, 2009}}.
  • 2010 – According to Jane's Defence Weekly, Israel has between 100 and 300 nuclear warheads, most of them are probably being kept in unassembled mode but can become fully functional "in a matter of days".WEB, Analysts: Israel viewed as world's 6th nuclear power, Ynet,weblink May 26, 2010,
  • 2010 – "More than 100 weapons, mainly two-stage thermonuclear devices, capable of being delivered by missile, fighter-bomber, or submarine" After extensive renovations, Dimona facility now functioning as new
  • 2014 – Approximately 80 nuclear warheads for delivery by two dozen missiles, a couple of squadrons of aircraft, and perhaps a small number of sea-launched cruise missiles.JOURNAL, Kristensen, Hans M., Norris, Robert S., 2014, Israeli nuclear weapons, 2014,weblink Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 70, 6, 97–115, 10.1177/0096340214555409,
  • 2014 – "300 or more" nuclear weapons.
  • 2015 – "Israel has 200, all targeted on Tehran."WEB,weblink 00002715_002, Scribd, 2016-09-17,

Delivery systems

Israeli military forces possess land, air, and sea-based methods for deploying their nuclear weapons, thus forming a nuclear triad that is mainly medium to long ranged, the backbone of which is submarine-launched cruise missiles and medium and intercontinental ballistic missiles, with Israeli Air Force long range strike aircraft on call to perform nuclear interdiction and strategic strikes.{{Citation|first=Douglas |last=Frantz |url= |title=Israel Adds Fuel to Nuclear Dispute, Officials confirm that the nation can now launch atomic weapons from land, sea and air |newspaper=The Los Angeles Times |date=October 12, 2003 |deadurl=yes |archiveurl= |archivedate=October 21, 2007 |df=mdy }}. During 2008 the Jericho III ICBM became operational, giving Israel extremely long range nuclear strike abilities.{{Citation | editor-first = Duncan | editor-last = Lennox | title = Strategic Weapons Systems | volume = 46 | publisher = Jane's |date=January 2007 | pages = 82–3}}.NEWS, Missile test 'will improve deterrence', Yuval, Azoulay,weblink Haaretz, January 18, 2008, June 4, 2011,


Israel is believed to have nuclear second strike abilities in the form of its submarine fleet and its nuclear-capable ballistic missiles that are understood to be buried deeply enough that they would survive a pre-emptive nuclear strike.NEWS,weblink The Washington Post, Ramit, Plushnick-Masti, May 20, 2010, Israel Buys 2 Nuclear-Capable Submarines, August 25, 2006, Ernst David Bergmann was the first to seriously begin thinking about ballistic missile capability and Israel test-fired its first Shavit II sounding rocket in July 1961.WEB,weblink Israel – Country Profiles – NTI, NTI: Nuclear Threat Initiative, August 1, 2013,weblink" title="">weblink September 21, 2013, yes, mdy-all, {{Sfn | Hersh | 1991 | p = 104}} In 1963 Israel put a large-scale project into motion, to jointly develop and build 25 short-range missiles with the French aerospace company Dassault. The Israeli project, codenamed Project 700, also included the construction of a missile field at Hirbat Zacharia, a site west of Jerusalem.{{Sfn | Hersh | 1991 | pp = 120, 173–4}} The missiles that were first developed with France became the Jericho I system, first operational in 1971. It is possible that the Jericho I was removed from operational service during the 1990s. In the mid-1980s the Jericho II medium-range missile, which is believed to have a range of 2,800–5,000 km, entered service.{{Citation | url =weblink | first = Gerald | last = Steinberg | publisher = BIU | place = IL | accessdate = June 4, 2011 | title = Arms | contribution = Missiles}}.{{Citation | url =weblink | title = Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States | publisher = FAS | accessdate = June 4, 2011}}.{{Sfn | Farr | 1999}} It is believed that Jericho II is capable of delivering nuclear weapons with a superior degree of accuracy.{{Citation | url =weblink | publisher = MIIS | title = Missile Proliferation and Defences: Problems and Prospects | accessdate = June 4, 2011}}. The Shavit three stages solid fuel space launch vehicle produced by Israel to launch many of its satellites into low earth orbit since 1988 is a civilian version of the Jericho II.NEWS, Space Programs Thriving in Israel, Irene, Brown,weblink Jewish Journal, January 9, 2003, June 4, 2011, The Jericho III ICBM, became operational in January 2008NEWS, Inside Israel’s (Possible) Strike on Iran, Nathan, Hodge,weblink Wired, April 2, 2009, June 4, 2011, NEWS,weblink The Daily Telegraph, London, Israel test-launches nuclear-capable missile, Tim, Butcher, January 18, 2008, May 20, 2010, and some reports speculate that the missile may be able to carry MIRVed warheads.{{Citation | author = Richardson, D | title = Israel carries out two-stage ballistic missile launch | publisher = | journal = Jane's Missiles & Rockets | volume = 12 | number = 3 |date=March 2008}}. The maximum range estimation of the Jericho III is 11,500 km with a payload of 1,000–1,300 kg (up to six small nuclear warheads of 100 kt each or one 1 megaton nuclear warhead),{{Citation | url =weblink | title = Missile Survey: Ballistic and Cruise Missiles of Foreign Countries | first = Andrew | last = Feikert | publisher = Congressional Research Service | format = PDF | date = March 5, 2004}}.{{Citation | url =weblink | title = Study on a Possible Israeli Strike on Iran's Nuclear Development Facilities | first = Abdullah | last = Toukan | publisher = Center for Strategic and International Studies | date = March 14, 2009}}. and its accuracy is considered high.In January 2008 Israel carried out the successful test launch of a long-range, ballistic missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead from the reported launch site at the Palmachim Airbase south of Tel Aviv.{{Citation | url =weblink | newspaper = AFP | title = Israel test-fires ballistic missile after Iran warning | date = January 17, 2008 | accessdate = June 4, 2011}}. Israeli radio identified the missile as a Jericho III and the Hebrew YNet news Web site quoted unnamed defence officials as saying the test had been "dramatic"{{Citation | url =weblink | title = Israel says carries out missile launching test | publisher = Reuters | date = January 17, 2008}}.Katz, Y., "Israel test-fires long-range ballistic missile", The Jerusalem Post, January 17, 2008. and that the new missile can reach "extremely long distances", without elaborating.{{Citation | url =weblink | title = Israel tests new long-range missile | newspaper = USA Today | date = January 17, 2008 | accessdate = June 4, 2011}}. Soon after the successful test launch, Isaac Ben-Israel, a retired army general and Tel Aviv University professor, told Israeli Channel 2 TV:The test came two days after Ehud Olmert, then Israel's Prime Minister, warned that "all options were on the table to prevent Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons" and a few months later Israel bombed a suspected Syrian nuclear facility built with extensive help from North Korea.{{Citation | archiveurl =weblink" title="">weblink | archivedate = October 13, 2008 | url =weblink | title = Report: Syria, North Korea hold high-level talks in Pyongyang | newspaper = Haaretz | date = September 21, 2007}}. At the same time, regional defense experts said that by the beginning of 2008, Israel had already launched a programme to extend the range of its existing Jericho II ground attack missiles. The Jericho-II B missile is capable of sending a one ton nuclear payload 5,000 kilometers.{{Sfn | Farr | 1999}} The range of Israels' Jericho II B missiles is reportedly capable of being modified to carry nuclear warheads no heavier than 500 kg over 7,800 km, making it an ICBM.{{Citation|url= |title=Report No. 2000/09: Ballistic Missile Proliferation |publisher=CSIS-SCRS |place=Canada |date=February 25, 2011 |accessdate=June 4, 2011 |deadurl=yes |archiveurl= |archivedate=December 26, 2010 |df= }}. It is estimated that Israel has between 50 and 100 Jericho II B missiles based at facilities built in the 1980s.{{Citation | url =weblink | contribution = Zachariah – Israel – Special Weapons Facilities | publisher = Global security | title = Weapons of mass destruction | accessdate = June 4, 2011}}. The number of Jericho III missiles that Israel possesses is unknown.


Israel's fighter aircraft have been cited as possible nuclear delivery systems.{{Citation | url =weblink | title = IS nukes | contribution = F-16 Falcon | publisher = CDI | accessdate = June 4, 2011 | deadurl = yes | archiveurl =weblink" title="">weblink | archivedate = June 3, 2011 | df = mdy-all }}. The Israeli Aerial refueling fleet of modified Boeing 707s and the use of external and conformal fuel tanks gives Israeli F-15, F-15I and F-16 fighter bombers strategic reach, as demonstrated in Operation Wooden Leg.{{Citation | url =weblink | title = Israel's F-16 Warplanes Likely to Carry Nuclear Weapons: Report | newspaper = People daily | place = CN | date = August 20, 2002 | accessdate = June 4, 2011}}.BOOK,weblink Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction: Assessing the Risks, U.S. Congress Office of Technology Assessment, August 1993, OTA-ISC-559, PDF, December 9, 2008, WEB,weblink U.S. Nuclear Weapons in Europe, 1954–2004, Robert S, Norris, Hans M, Kristensen, November–December 2004, Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, December 22, 2013, {{failed verification|date=December 2013}}


The Israeli Navy operates a fleet of five modern German-built Dolphin-class submarines{{Citation | url =weblink | newspaper = Defense Technology News | title = Israel Takes Delivery of 2 German-Built U212 Submarines | publisher = Google Blogger | date = September 30, 2009 | accessdate = June 4, 2011}} with a further three planned,NEWS, Israel looks to buy three new nuke-capable subs—report,weblink AFP, The Times of Israel, October 21, 2016, January 31, 2019, NEWS, Report: Germany Approves Sale of 3 More Submarines to Israel, Anna, Ahronheim, June 30, 2017, The Jerusalem Post,weblink January 31, 2019, WEB, Dolphin Class Submarines, Uri Dotan-Bochner,weblink July 2, 2006, Israel, IL,weblink" title="">weblink June 28, 2006, and various reports indicate that these submarines are equipped with Popeye Turbo cruise missiles that can deliver nuclear and conventional warheads with extremely high accuracy.WEB,weblink USAF Counterproliferation Center: Emerging Biocruise Threat,, The proven effectiveness of cruise missiles of its own production may have been behind Israel's recent acquisition of these submarines which are equipped with torpedo tubes suitable for launching long-range (1,500–2,400 km) nuclear-capable cruise missiles{{Citation | title = Israel Special Weapons | contribution = Popeye Turbo | publisher = Global security |url=weblink | accessdate = June 4, 2011}}WEB, Nuclear Weapons Inventories of the Eight Known Nuclear Powers, PLRC,weblink November 2, 2007, that would offer Israel a second strike capability.{{Sfn | Ben-David | 2009}} Israel is reported to possess a 200 kg nuclear warhead, containing 6 kg of plutonium, that could be mounted on cruise missiles. The missiles were reportedly test launched in the Indian Ocean near Sri Lanka in June 2000, and are reported to have hit their target at a range of 1,500 km.In June 2002, former State Department and Pentagon officials confirmed that the US Navy observed Israeli missile tests in the Indian Ocean in 2000, and that the Dolphin-class vessels have been fitted with nuclear-capable cruise missiles of a new design. It is believed by some to be a version of Rafael Armament Development Authority's Popeye turbo cruise missile while some believe that the missile may be a version of the Gabriel 4LR that is produced by Israel Aircraft Industries. However, others claim that such a range implies an entirely new type of missile.{{Citation | first = Ed | last = Blanche | title = Israel denies sub-launched missile tests | journal = Jane's Missile and Rockets | date = August 1, 2000}}."Gabriel", Jane's Strategic Weapon Systems, August 28, 2003.{{Citation | first1 = Uzi | last1 = Mahnaimi | first2 = Matthew | last2 = Campbell | title = Israel Makes Nuclear Waves with Submarine Missile Test | newspaper = The Sunday Times | date = June 18, 2000 | place = London, England}}. During the second half of the 1990s, Israel asked the United States to sell it 50 Tomahawk land-attack cruise missiles to enhance its deep-strike capabilities. Washington rejected Israel's request in March 1998, since such a sale would have violated the Missile Technology Control Regime guidelines, which prohibit the transfer of missiles with a range exceeding 300 km. Shortly after the rejection, an Israeli official told Defense News: "History has taught us that we cannot wait indefinitely for Washington to satisfy our military requirements. If this weapon system is denied to us, we will have little choice but to activate our own defense industry in pursuit of this needed capability." In July 1998, the Air Intelligence Center warned the US Congress that Israel was developing a new type of cruise missile.{{Citation | title = Israel Moves — Quickly — To Beef Up Its Submarine Force | publisher = Stratfor | date = October 26, 2000 | url =weblink}}.According to Israeli defense sources, in June 2009 Israeli Dolphin-class submarine sailed from the Mediterranean to the Red Sea via the Suez Canal during a drill that showed that Israel can access the Indian Ocean, and the Persian Gulf, far more easily than before.{{Citation | url =weblink | title = Israeli nuclear submarine sailed Suez Canal to the Red Sea | newspaper = World bulletin | date = July 3, 2009 | accessdate = June 4, 2011 }}{{dead link|date=February 2018 |bot=InternetArchiveBot |fix-attempted=yes }}. Israel Defense Forces (IDF) sources said the decision to allow navy vessels to sail through the canal was made recently and was a definite "change of policy" within the service. Israeli officials said the submarine was surfaced when it passed through the canal. In the event of a conflict with Iran, and if Israel decided to involve its Dolphin-class submarines, the quickest route would be to send them through the Suez Canal.NEWS,weblink Reuters, Israeli sub sails Suez, signaling reach to Iran, July 3, 2009, The Israeli fleet was expanded after Israel signed a €1.3 billion contract to purchase two additional submarines from ThyssenKrupp's subsidiary Howaldtswerke-Deutsche Werft in 2006. These two U212s are to be delivered to the Israeli navy in 2011 and are "Dolphin II" class submarines.{{Citation | publisher = Siemens | type = brochure | url =weblink | title = Electrical Equipment for Naval Vessels and Submarines | accessdate = June 4, 2011}}. The submarines are believed to be capable of launching cruise missiles carrying nuclear warheads, despite statements by the German government in 2006, in confirming the sale of the two vessels, that they were not equipped to carry nuclear weapons.{{Citation | url =weblink | title = Israel Takes Delivery of 2 German-Built U212 Subs | newspaper = Defense news | accessdate = June 4, 2011}}. The two new boats are an upgraded version of the old Dolphins, and equipped with an air-independent propulsion system, that allow them to remain submerged for longer periods of time than the three nuclear arms-capable submarines that have been in Israel's fleet since 1999.Plushnick-Masti, Ramit. "Israel Buys 2 Nuclear-Capable Submarines", The Washington Post, August 25, 2006. Retrieved July 4, 2007. In October 2009 it was reported that the Israeli navy sought to buy a sixth Dolphin class submarine.{{Sfn | Ben-David | 2009}}On June 4, 2012, Der Spiegel published an investigative article stating that Israel has armed its newest submarines with nuclear missiles.WEB,weblink Israel's Deployment of Nuclear Missiles on Subs from Germany, Ronen, Bergman, Erich, Follath, Einat, Keinan, Otfried, Nassauer, Jorg, Schmitt, Holger, Stark, Thomas, Weigold, Klaus, Wiegrefe, June 4, 2012, Der Spiegel, June 4, 2012, Numerous Israeli and German officials were quoted testifying to the nuclear capabilities of the submarines and the placement of nuclear missiles aboard the ships. In response to the article, officials from both Germany and Israel refused to comment.WEB,weblink Report: Israel fitting nuclear missiles on German-built subs, June 4, 2012, CBS News, June 7, 2012, Several papers have stated the implications of Israel attaining these nuclear weapon carrying submarines are increased due to the threat of attacks upon Iran by Israel.WEB,weblink 'Helping Israel Defend Itself Is Germany's Duty', David Gordon Smith, June 5, 2012, Der Spiegel, June 4, 2012,


It has been reported that Israel has several other nuclear weapons capabilities:
  • Suitcase bomb: Seymour Hersh reports that Israel developed the ability to miniaturize warheads small enough to fit in a suitcase by the year 1973.{{Sfn | Hersh | 1991 | p = 220}}
  • Tactical nuclear weapon: Israel may also have 175 mm and 203 mm self-propelled artillery pieces, capable of firing nuclear shells. There are three battalions of the 175mm artillery (36 tubes), reportedly with 108 nuclear shells and more for the 203mm tubes. If true, these low yield, tactical nuclear artillery rounds could reach at least 25 miles (40 km), while by some sources it is possible that the range was extended to 45 miles (72 km) during the 1990s.{{Sfn | Farr | 1999}}
  • EMP strike capabilities: Israel allegedly possesses several 1 megaton bombs,{{Citation | url =weblink | newspaper = Asia Times | place = HK | edition = online | date = January 3, 2008 | accessdate = June 4, 2011 | title = Sneak peek at a desert Armageddon | first = David | last = Isenberg}}.{{Citation | url =weblink | title = US institute: Israel could survive nuclear war | newspaper = The Jerusalem Post | accessdate = June 4, 2011 }}{{dead link|date=February 2018 |bot=InternetArchiveBot |fix-attempted=yes }}. which give it a very large EMP attack ability.{{Citation | place = United States | url =weblink | title = Electromagnetic Pulse Threats To US Military And Civilian Infrastructure | publisher = House | accessdate = June 4, 2011}}. For example, if a megaton-class weapon were to be detonated 400 kilometers above Omaha, Nebraska, US, nearly the entire continental United States would be affected with potentially damaging EMP experience from Boston to Los Angeles and from Chicago to New Orleans.{{Citation | url =weblink | title = Threat Posed by Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) to U.S. Military Systems and Civil | publisher = Global security | accessdate = June 4, 2011}}. A similar high-altitude airburst above Iran could cause serious damage to all of the electrical systems in the Middle East, and much of Europe.{{Citation | url =weblink | title = Iran's Nuclear and Missile Programs: A Strategic Assessment | first = Anthony H | last = Cordesman | publisher = Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy Center for Strategic and International Studies | date = August 30, 2006 | accessdate = June 4, 2011}}.
  • Enhanced Radiation Weapon (ERW): Israel also is reported to have an unknown number of neutron bombs.{{Sfn | Farr | 1999}}
  • Nuclear land mine: Israel supposedly has deployed multiple defensive nuclear land mines in the Golan Heights.{{Citation | url =weblink | publisher = FAS | title = Israel | contribution = Doctrine}}.{{Citation | first = Seymour | last = Hersh | title = The Samson Option: Israel's Nuclear Arsenal and American Foreign Policy | place = New York City | publisher = Random House | year = 1991 | page = 170}}.BOOK,weblink Battle of Tours, John C., Scott, March 24, 2011,, June 5, 2017, Google Books, 9781456601485,


Israel's deliberately ambiguous policy to confirm or deny its own possession of nuclear weapons, or to give any indication regarding their potential use, make it necessary to gather details from other sources, including diplomatic and intelligence sources and 'unauthorized' statements by its political and military leaders. Alternatively, with the Begin Doctrine, Israel is very clear and decisive regarding the country's policy on potential developments of nuclear capability by any other regional adversaries, which it will not allow.


Although Israel has officially acknowledged the existence of Dimona since Ben-Gurion's speech to the Knesset in December 1960, Israel has never officially acknowledged its construction or possession of nuclear weapons.{{Sfn | Cohen | 1998a | p = 343}} In addition to this policy, on May 18, 1966, Prime Minister Levi Eshkol told the Knesset that "Israel has no atomic weapons and will not be the first to introduce them into our region," a policy first articulated by Shimon Peres to U.S. President John F. Kennedy in April 1963.{{Sfn | Cohen | 1998a | pp = 233–4}} In November 1968, Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. Yitzhak Rabin informed the U.S. State Department that its understanding of "introducing" nuclear weapons meant testing, deploying or making them public, while merely possessing the weapons did not constitute "introducing" them.{{Citation | first1 = Avner | last1 = Cohen | first2 = William | last2 = Burr | url =weblink | title = The Untold Story of Israel's Bomb | newspaper = The Washington Post | date = April 30, 2006 | page = B01}}.{{Citation | format = PDF | url =weblink | title =Memorandum for the President: Israeli Nuclear Program | first = Henry A | last = Kissinger | date= July 16, 1969| publisher= The White House| accessdate = July 26, 2009}} Avner Cohen defines this initial posture as "nuclear ambiguity", but he defines the stage after it became clear by 1969 that Israel possessed nuclear weapons as a policy of amimut,Goldberg, Jeffrey. "The Point of No Return" The Atlantic, September 2010. or "nuclear opacity".{{Sfn | Cohen | 1998a | pp = 277, 291}}In 1998, former Prime Minister Shimon Peres said that Israel "built a nuclear option, not in order to have a Hiroshima but an Oslo".WEB, Federation of American Scientists, Peres admits to Israeli nuclear capability, July 14, 1998,weblink July 2, 2006, The "nuclear option" may refer to a nuclear weapon or to the nuclear reactor near Dimona, which Israel claims is used for scientific research. Peres, in his capacity as the Director General of the Ministry of Defense in the early 1950s, was responsible for building Israel's nuclear capability.WEB, Israel and the Bomb: Principal players, National Security Archive,weblink July 2, 2006, In a December 2006 interview, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert stated that Iran aspires "to have a nuclear weapon as America, France, Israel and Russia".WEB, December 11, 2006, Olmert: Iran wants nuclear weapons like Israel, Y net news,weblink Olmert's office later said that the quote was taken out of context; in other parts of the interview, Olmert refused to confirm or deny Israel's nuclear weapon status.NEWS, December 11, 2006, Olmert Says Israel Among Nuclear Nations,weblinkweblink" title="">weblink December 15, 2006,


Israel's nuclear doctrine is shaped by its lack of strategic depth: a subsonic fighter jet could cross the {{convert |72|km|nmi}} from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea in just 4 minutes. It additionally relies on a reservist-based military which magnifies civilian and military losses in its small population. Israel tries to compensate for these weaknesses by emphasising intelligence, maneuverability and firepower.WEB,weblink Strategic Doctrine, Global Security, April 28, 2005, As a result, its strategy is based on the premise that it cannot afford to lose a single war, and thus must prevent them by maintaining deterrence, including the option of preemption. If these steps are insufficient, it seeks to prevent escalation and determine a quick and decisive war outside of its borders.Strategically, Israel's long-range missiles, nuclear-capable aircraft, and possibly its submarines present an effective second strike deterrence against unconventional and conventional attack, and if Israel's defences fail and its population centers are threatened, the Samson Option, an all-out attack against an adversary, would be employed. Its nuclear arsenal can also be used tactically to destroy military units on the battlefield.Although nuclear weapons are viewed as the ultimate guarantor of Israeli security, as early as the 1960s the country has avoided building its military around them, instead pursuing absolute conventional superiority so as to forestall a last-resort nuclear engagement.According to historian Avner Cohen, Israel first articulated an official policy on the use of nuclear weapons in 1966, which revolved around four "red lines" that could lead to a nuclear response:{{Sfn | Cohen | 1998a | p = 237}}
  1. A successful military penetration into populated areas within Israel's post-1949 (pre-1967) borders.
  2. The destruction of the Israeli Air Force.
  3. The exposure of Israeli cities to massive and devastating air attacks or to possible chemical or biological attacks.
  4. The use of nuclear weapons against Israeli territory.


Seymour Hersh alleges weapons were deployed on several occasions. On October 8, 1973, just after the start of the Yom Kippur War, Golda Meir and her closest aides decided to put eight nuclear armed F-4s at Tel Nof Airbase on 24-hour alert and as many nuclear missile launchers at Sedot Mikha Airbase operational as possible. Seymour Hersh adds that the initial target list that night "included the Egyptian and Syrian military headquarters near Cairo and Damascus".{{Sfn | Hersh | 1991 | p = 225}} This nuclear alert was meant not only as a means of precaution, but to push the Soviets to restrain the Arab offensive and to convince the US to begin sending supplies. One later report said that a Soviet intelligence officer did warn the Egyptian chief of staff, and colleagues of US National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger said that the threat of a nuclear exchange caused him to urge for a massive Israeli resupply.{{Sfn | Hersh | 1991 | pp = 227, 230}} Hersh points out that before Israel obtained its own satellite capability, it engaged in espionage against the United States to obtain nuclear targeting information on Soviet targets.{{Sfn | Hersh | 1991 | pp = 17, 216, 220, 286, 291–96}}After Iraq attacked Israel with Scud missiles during the 1991 Gulf War, Israel went on full-scale nuclear alert and mobile nuclear missile launchers were deployed.{{Sfn | Hersh | 1998a | p = 318}} In the buildup to the United States 2003 invasion of Iraq, there were concerns that Iraq would launch an unconventional weapons attack on Israel. After discussions with President George W. Bush, the then Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon warned "If our citizens are attacked seriously — by a weapon of mass destruction, chemical, biological or by some mega-terror attack act — and suffer casualties, then Israel will respond." Israeli officials interpreted President Bush's stance as allowing a nuclear Israeli retaliation on Iraq, but only if Iraq struck before the U.S. military invasion.{{Citation | first = Ross | last = Dunn | url =weblink | title = Sharon eyes 'Samson option' against Iraq | newspaper = The Scotsman | date = November 3, 2002}}.Israeli military and nuclear doctrine increasingly focused on preemptive war against any possible attack with conventional, chemical, biological or nuclear weapons, or even a potential conventional attack on Israel's weapons of mass destruction.{{Sfn | Farr | 1999}}{{Citation | first = Louis René | last = Beres | author-link = Louis René Beres | url =weblink | publisher = ACR | place = IL | title = Israel's Bomb in the Basement: Reconsidering a Vital Element of Israeli Nuclear Deterrence | year = 2003}}.Louis René Beres, who contributed to Project Daniel, urges that Israel continue and improve these policies, in concert with the increasingly preemptive nuclear policies of the United States, as revealed in the Doctrine for Joint Nuclear Operations.{{Citation | first = Louis René | last = Beres | author-link = Louis René Beres | url =weblink | publisher = Army | title = Israel's Uncertain Strategic Future | journal = Parameters |date=Spring 2007 | place =United States| pages = 37–54}}.

Maintaining nuclear superiority

Alone or with other nations, Israel has used diplomatic and military efforts as well as covert action to prevent other Middle Eastern countries from acquiring nuclear weapons.{{Citation | first = Ze'ev | last = Schiff | url =weblink | title = Israel Urges US Diplomacy on Iran | publisher = Carnegie Endowment | date = May 30, 2006}}.


Mossad agents triggered explosions in April 1979 at a French production plant near Toulon, damaging two reactor cores destined for Iraqi reactors.WEB, Thirty Years Since the Bombing of the Iraqi Reactor,weblink Israel Defense, 14 August 2017, Mossad agents may also have been behind the assassinations of an Egyptian nuclear engineer in Paris as well as two Iraqi engineers, all working for the Iraqi nuclear program.JOURNAL, Reiter, D,weblink Preventive attacks against nuclear programs and the "success" at Osiraq, PDF, 10.1080/10736700500379008, Nonproliferation Review, 2005, 12, 2, 355–71, On June 7, 1981, Israel launched an air strike destroying the breeder reactor at Osirak, Iraq, in Operation Opera.NEWS,weblink 1981: Israel bombs Baghdad nuclear reactor, 7 June 1981, BBC News, British Broadcasting Corporation, 30 November 2010, JOURNAL, Donald Neff, 1995, Israel Bombs Iraq's Osirak Nuclear Research Facility, Washington Report on Middle East Affairs, 81–82, Andrew I. Kilgore,weblink 30 November 2010, Mossad may have also assassinated professor Gerald Bull, an artillery expert, who was leading the Project Babylon supergun for Saddam Hussein in the 1980s, which was capable of delivering a tactical nuclear payload.NEWS,weblink Mossad's licence to kill, Thomas, Gordon, Daily Telegraph, 17 February 2010, 10 May 2018, {{Citation | url =weblink | title = The Israeli Intelligence Services: Deception and Covert Action Operations | publisher = History of War}}.


On September 6, 2007, Israel launched an air strike dubbed Operation Orchard against a target in the Deir ez-Zor region of Syria. While Israel refused to comment, unnamed US officials said Israel had shared intelligence with them that North Korea was cooperating with Syria on some sort of nuclear facility.{{Citation | first = Glenn | last = Kessler | url =weblink | title = N. Korea, Syria May Be at Work on Nuclear Facility | newspaper = The Washington Post | date = September 13, 2007 | page = A12}}. Both Syria and North Korea denied the allegation and Syria filed a formal complaint with the United Nations.{{Citation | publisher = JTA | url =weblink | title = Syria Complains to UN}}.{{Citation | first = Leonard | last = Doyle | url =weblink | title = Syria says U.S. nuclear claims are 'false,' biased toward Israel | publisher = Associated Press | newspaper = Ha’aretz | date = September 18, 2007}}. The International Atomic Energy Agency concluded in May 2011 that the destroyed facility was "very likely" an undeclared nuclear reactor.WEB, Brannan, Paul, Analysis of IAEA Report on Syria: IAEA Concludes Syria "Very Likely" Built a Reactor,weblink Institute for Science and International Security, May 24, 2011, PDF, Journalist Seymour Hersh speculated that the Syrian air strike might have been intended as a trial run for striking alleged Iranian nuclear weapons facilities.NEWS, Seymour, Hersh, A Strike in the Dark,weblink The New Yorker, February 11, 2008, February 23, 2008,


On January 7, 2007, The Sunday Times reported that Israel had drawn up plans to destroy three Iranian nuclear facilities.{{Citation | last1 = Mahnaimi | first1 = Uzi | last2 = Baxter | first2 = Sarah | url =weblink | title = Revealed: Israel plans nuclear strike on Iran | newspaper = The Sunday Times | date = January 7, 2007 | accessdate = July 3, 2007}}. Israel swiftly denied the specific allegation and analysts expressed doubts about its reliability.{{Citation | url =weblink | title = Israel denies planning Iran nuclear attack, UK newspaper reports Israel intends to strike up to three targets in Iran | newspaper = MSNBC | publisher = The Associated Press | date = January 7, 2007}}. Also in 2007 Israel pressed for United Nations economic sanctions against Iran,{{Citation | publisher = Associated press | url =weblink | title = Foreign Minister urges tougher UN sanctions against Iran | date = September 13, 2007}}. and repeatedly threatened to launch a military strike on Iran if the United States did not do so first.{{Citation | first = Rowan | last = Scarborough | url =weblink | title = Israel pushes US on Iran nuke solution | newspaper = The Washington Times | date = February 21, 2005}}.{{Citation|first=Con |last=Coughlin |place=Tel Aviv |url= |title=Israel seeks all clear for Iran air strike |newspaper=The Daily Telegraph |date=February 24, 2007 |deadurl=yes |archiveurl= |archivedate=November 5, 2007 |df= }}.Israel is widely believed to be behind the assassination of a number of Iranian nuclear scientists.NEWS, Hasan, Mehdi, Iran's nuclear scientists are not being assassinated. They are being murdered,weblink 12 January 2012, 7 February 2016, The Guardian, NEWS, Meikle, James, Iran: timeline of attacks,weblink 12 January 2012, 7 February 2016, The Guardian, NEWS, Vick, Karl, Klein, Aaron J., Who Assassinated an Iranian Nuclear Scientist? Israel Isn't Telling,weblink 13 January 2012, 14 February 2016, Time Magazine, Time, WEB,weblink The undeclared war on Iran's nuclear program, The Globe and Mail, 18 June 2012, 12 April 2013, Koring, Paul, The death of the Iranian physicist Ardeshir Hassanpour, who may have been involved in the nuclear program, has been claimed by the intelligence group Stratfor to have also been a Mossad assassination.{{Citation|url= |archive-url= |dead-url=yes |archive-date=October 10, 2009 |newspaper=Geopolitical Diary |title=Israeli Covert Operations in Iran |publisher=Stratfor |date=May 31, 2011 |accessdate=June 4, 2011 }}.The 2010 Stuxnet malware is widely believed to have been developed by Israel and the United States. It spread worldwide, but appears to have been designed to target the Natanz Enrichment Plant, where it reportedly destroyed up to 1,000 centrifuges.WEB,weblink Confirmed: US and Israel created Stuxnet, lost control of it, Ars Technica, NEWS,weblink Stuxnet was work of U.S. and Israeli experts, officials say, Ellen Nakashima, 2 June 2012, The Washington Post, WEB,weblink Did Stuxnet Take Out 1,000 Centrifuges at the Natanz Enrichment Plant?, Institute for Science and International Security, 22 December 2010, 27 December 2010,

Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and United Nations' Resolutions

Israel was originally expected to sign the 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and on June 12, 1968, Israel voted in favor of the treaty in the UN General Assembly.However, when the invasion of Czechoslovakia in August by the Soviet Union delayed ratification around the world, Israel's internal division and hesitation over the treaty became public.{{Sfn | Cohen | 1998a | pp = 300–1}} The Johnson administration attempted to use the sale of 50 F-4 Phantoms to pressure Israel to sign the treaty that fall, culminating in a personal letter from Lyndon Johnson to Israeli Prime Minister Levi Eshkol. But by November Johnson had backed away from tying the F-4 sale with the NPT after a stalemate in negotiations, and Israel would neither sign nor ratify the treaty.{{Sfn | Cohen | 1998a | p = 315}} After the series of negotiations, U.S. assistant secretary of defense for international security Paul Warnke was convinced that Israel already possessed nuclear weapons.{{Sfn | Cohen | 1998a | pp = 318–9}} In 2007 Israel sought an exemption to non-proliferation rules in order to import atomic material legally.{{Citation|first=George |last=Jahn |url= |title=Israel Seeks Exemption From Atomic Rules |publisher=The Associated Press |date=September 25, 2007 }}{{dead link|date=May 2016|bot=medic}}{{cbignore|bot=medic}}In 1996, the United Nations General Assembly passed a resolution{{UN document | docid =A-RES-51-41 |type=Resolution |body=General Assembly |session=51 |resolution_number=41 |accessdate = August 23, 2008|date=December 10, 1996|title=Establishment of a nuclear-weapon-free zone in the region of the Middle East}} calling for the establishment of a nuclear-weapon-free zone in the region of the Middle East.{{Citation | url =weblink | title = United Nations General Assembly Resolution 51/41 | date = December 10, 1996 | publisher = Jewish virtual library | accessdate = June 4, 2011}}. Arab nations and annual conferences of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) repeatedly have called for application of IAEA safeguards and the creation of a nuclear-free Middle East. Arab nations have accused the United States of practicing a double standard in criticizing Iran's nuclear program while ignoring Israel's possession of nuclear weapons.{{Citation | first = Walter | last = Pincus | url =weblink | title = Push for Nuclear-Free Middle East Resurfaces; Arab Nations Seek Answers About Israel | newspaper = The Washington Post | date = March 6, 2005 | page = A24}}.{{Citation | url =weblink | title = Israel-Arab spat at nuclear talks | publisher = BBC | place = United Kingdom | newspaper = News | date = September 28, 2005}}.{{Citation | url =weblink | publisher = Xin Hua net | date = September 21, 2007 | title = IAEA conference urges efforts for nuclear-free Mideast}}. According to a statement by the Arab League, Arab states will withdraw from the NPT if Israel acknowledges having nuclear weapons but refuses to open its facilities to international inspection and destroy its arsenal.NEWS, Arab League vows to drop out of NPT if Israel admits it has nuclear weapons,weblink Haaretz, March 5, 2008, March 10, 2008, In a statement to the May 2009 preparatory meeting for the 2010 NPT Review Conference, the US delegation reiterated the longstanding US support for "universal adherence to the NPT", but uncharacteristically named Israel among the four countries that have not done so. An unnamed Israeli official dismissed the suggestion that it would join the NPT and questioned the effectiveness of the treaty.{{Citation | url =weblink | title = Stronger Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty Needed, Obama Says | newspaper = Global Security Newswire | date = May 6, 2009}}. The Washington Times reported that this statement threatened to derail the 40-year-old secret agreement between the US and Israel to shield Israel's nuclear weapons program from international scrutiny.{{Citation | last = Lake | first = Eli | url =weblink | title = Secret US-Israel Nuclear Accord In Jeopardy | newspaper = The Washington Times | date = May 6, 2009 | page = 1}}. According to Avner Cohen, by not stating that Israel has atomic weapons, the US avoids having to sanction the country for violating American non-proliferation law.NEWS,weblink What the U.S. Government Really Thought of Israel’s Apparent 1979 Nuclear Test, Cohen, Abner, 2016-12-08, Politico, Burr, William, Cohen, author of Israel and the Bomb, argued that acknowledging its nuclear program would allow Israel to take part constructively in efforts to control nuclear weapons.{{Citation | url =weblink | title = Nuclear ban benefits for Israel | first = Avner | last = Cohen | newspaper = The Washington Times | date = May 6, 2009}}.The Final Document of the 2010 NPT Review Conference called for a conference in 2012 to implement a resolution of the 1995 NPT Review Conference that called for the establishment of a Middle East Zone free of weapons of mass destruction. The United States joined the international consensus for Final Document, but criticized the section on the Middle East resolution for singling out Israel as the only state in the region that is not party to the NPT, while at the same time ignoring Iran's "longstanding violation of the NPT and UN Security Council Resolutions."{{Citation | url =weblink | type = statement | first = General James L | last = Jones | title = National Security Advisor on the Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference | publisher = White House, Office of the Press Secretary | date = May 28, 2010}}.


{{Reflist | group = "lower-alpha"}}




Adam Raz, The Struggle for the Bomb, Carmel Publishing House, Jerusalem 2015 [Heb.]
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  • {{Citation | url =weblink|title= Israel seeks sixth Dolphin in light of Iranian 'threat'| first = Alon | last = Ben-David| date= October 1, 2009 | newspaper = Jane's Defence Weekly |accessdate= June 4, 2011|ref=harv}}
  • {{Citation | title = The Third Temple's holy of holies: Israel's nuclear weapons | first = Warner D | last = Farr | series = The Counterproliferation Papers, Future Warfare Series | volume = 2 | publisher = USAF Counterproliferation Center, Air War College, Air University, Maxwell Air Force Base | url =weblink |date=September 1999 | accessdate = July 2, 2006|ref=harv}}
  • {{Citation | last = Hersh | first = Seymour M | title = The Samson Option | place = New York | publisher = Random House | year = 1991 | isbn = 978-0-394-57006-8|ref=harv}}
  • Galen Jackson (2019) The United States, the Israeli Nuclear Program, and Nonproliferation, 1961–69, Security Studies.
  • {{Citation | last = Rhodes | first = Richard | title = The Twilight of the Bombs: Recent Challenges, New Dangers, and the Prospects for a World Without Nuclear Weapons| url =weblink | accessdate =June 4, 2011|date= August 24, 2010|publisher = Knopf Doubleday |isbn = 978-0-307-26754-2|ref=harv}}
  • {{Citation | title = Tracking nuclear proliferation: A guide in maps and charts | year = 1995 | last1 = Spector | first1 = Leonard S | last2 = McDonough | first2 = Mark G | last3 = Medeiros | first3 = Evan S | publisher = Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | place = Washington, DC | isbn = 978-0-87003-061-1|ref=harv}}
  • {{Citation | last1 = Weissman | first1 = Stephen 'Steve' | title = The Islamic bomb: the nuclear threat to Israel and the Middle East | year = 1981 | publisher = Times Books | location = New York, NY | isbn = 978-0-8129-0978-4 | page = 275 | last2 = Krosney | first2 = Herbert | ref = harv | url =weblink }}

External links

  • Avner Cohen Collection, A collection of primary sources and interviews at the Nuclear Proliferation International History Project
  • {{Citation | url =weblink | place = United Kingdom | title = Israel deploys nuclear arms in submarines | first1 = Peter | last1 = Beaumont | first2 = Conal | last2 = Urquhart | newspaper = The Observer | publisher = The Guardian | date = October 12, 2003|ref=harv}}
  • {{Citation | url =weblink | title = Should Israel give up its nukes? | first = George | last = Bisharat | newspaper = The LA Times | date = December 2005 | ref = harv | deadurl = yes | archiveurl =weblink" title="">weblink | archivedate = June 10, 2008 | df = mdy-all }}, Pentagon study about nuclear nonproliferation in Middle East.
  • {{Citation | url =weblink | title = Marcus Klingberg, last KGB Spy to be Released in Israel | first = Dmitry | last = Chirkin | newspaper = Pravda | place = RU | date = January 15, 2003|ref=harv}}
  • {{Citation | url =weblink | title = Israel and the Bomb | first = Avner | last = Cohen | author-link = Avner Cohen | contribution = Official documents|ref=harv}}
  • {{Citation | url =weblink | title = Israel and Chemical/Biological Weapons: History, Deterrence, and Arms Control | first = Avner | last = Cohen | author-mask = 3 | journal = The Nonproliferation Review | date = Fall–Winter 2001 | ref = harv | deadurl = yes | archiveurl =weblink" title="">weblink | archivedate = June 11, 2009 | df = mdy-all }}
  • {{Citation | url =weblink | title = Israel crosses the threshold — Israel, the bomb and the NPT in the Nixon era | journal = The Bulletin | deadurl = yes | archiveurl =weblink" title="">weblink | archivedate = September 28, 2006 | df = mdy-all }}, based on {{Citation | url =weblink | first = Avner | last = Cohen | author-mask = 3 | title = documents | date = April 28, 2006|ref=harv}}
  • {{Citation | url =weblink | title = Bibliography of Israeli Nuclear Science Publications | first = Mark | last = Gorman | publisher = Federation of American Scientists|ref=harv}}
  • {{Citation | url =weblink | title = History of a hot potato | first = Yehiam | last = Weitz | newspaper = Haaretz | date = January 14, 2005 | publisher = Tau | place = IL | ref = harv | access-date = February 15, 2012 | archive-url =weblink" title="">weblink | archive-date = June 10, 2008 | dead-url = yes | df = mdy-all }}
  • {{Citation | url =weblink | contribution = Israel | title = Overview – WMD | publisher = Nuclear Threat Initiative |date= May 2014}}.
  • {{Citation|url= |title=The Israel Institute for Biological Research |ref=harv |deadurl=yes |archiveurl= |archivedate=November 15, 2012 |df= }}
  • {{Citation | url =weblink | contribution = Israel | title = Nuclear Files | publisher = Nuclear Age Peace Foundation|ref=harv}}
  • weblink" title="">Nuclear Stockpiles Current information on nuclear stockpiles in Israel at Nuclear, Nuclear Age Peace Foundation
  • {{Citation | url =weblink | title = JIC Israel Nuclear file 1960–61 | volume = Part 1 | publisher = Cabinet office | place = UK | ref = harv | deadurl = yes | archiveurl =weblink" title="">weblink | archivedate = December 11, 2006 | df = mdy-all }}
  • {{Citation | url =weblink | title = JIC Israel Nuclear file 1960–61 | volume = Part 2 | publisher = Cabinet office | place = UK | ref = harv | deadurl = yes | archiveurl =weblink" title="">weblink | archivedate = August 18, 2006 | df = mdy-all }}
  • {{Citation | url =weblink | archive-url =weblink" title="">weblink | dead-url = yes | archive-date = 2007-03-24 | title = Time to Open the Nuclear Gates – Israel's "nuclear ambivalence" strategy | publisher = O media}}
  • {{Citation | url =weblink | title = Annotated bibliography for the Israeli nuclear weapons program | publisher = Alsos Digital Library on Nuclear Issues|ref=harv}}

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